(Yeah, this is my official pre-season prediction post for the Penn State Nittany Lions 2013 football season, but there’s something I must get off my chest first. Again.)
Even after I told them to stop using that vacuously vogueish vulgarity — athleticism — they kept on writing it, speaking it, taking it to dinner, and bending my mind with it. Retards! Of all the egregious etymology employed in the inherently insipid, grammatically grotesque spewing of sports speciousness, athleticism exists on a singular plateau above all the others, because not only is it made up, but also it is completely fucked up.
Go ahead! Look it up in the dictionary. Merriam-Webster’s lists the adjective athletic as meaning “of or relating to athletes or athletics,” or “used by an athlete.” The adverb form athletically is listed underneath, with the assumption that anyone looking in this area — except perhaps a sports commentator — would know the difference between an adverb and an adjective. Finally, the nominalization athleticism is listed alone, the implied definition of which being whatever the hell one’s imagination makes it.
Do we really need another noun? Isn’t athlete good enough? Doesn’t athlete imply athleticism? Can you have a non-athletic athlete? Are there degrees of “athleticism”? Can someone be more athleticistic than someone else?
******
OK, so that’s my opening rant for the day. I told you I wouldn’t be writing about the Sandusky scandal or anything related to it anymore unless it was real news and not just the whining of a bunch of high school girls about who’s going to the prom with whom and we don’t like the BoT and that kind of crapola. I meant it. However, I still have a need to rant. It is an outlet for me. Writing is therapeutic, and vitriolic writing is purgative. So, please allow me to purge. You have no choice.
Trite expressions will be highlighted through use of Italics. Their use is strictly for comedic effect. Accuse me otherwise, and I’ll deny any unwitting excursion into such hackneyed bullshit phrases.
The 2013 Campaign Ahead
Now, on to the season ahead. (What a següe!) What follows represents this turkey’s best take on the 2013 Nittany Lions’ football season, which at this point is veiled in mysteriosity and replete with athleticism, whatever the hell that means.
After surprising everybody (another vacuous and worn-out cliché) last year with an 8-4 record and a thrilling overtime victory over Wisconsin to end a going-nowhere season with a bang, the Nittany Lions return under the continued dark cloud of the NCAA sanctions, but without the strong feelings sparked by last year’s fresh wounds. At this point, that’s old news for everyone except the whiners who remain in denial. Now, the team, adeptly coached by the fiery Bill O’Brien, must find a way to rise above itself once again, but absent the passionate senior leadership of Mike Mauti, Matt McGloin, and Mike Zordich, that will be hard.
We fans tend to be sanguine at this stage of the season. We’re also demanding. An 8-4 record last year after a slow start can only mean one thing: we’ll do better this year. To paraphrase BWI publisher Phil Grosz (who has yet to offer his usual pie-in-the-sky prediction this year), anything less than a 9-3 record from this team is unacceptable. I’m speaking the fans’ mind, not reality. I’ll reveal below what I think is realistic, and I don’t think it will be even close to 9-3.
Why? Penn State is replete with talent at all positions and it has a quarterback who just might be the best in the country, now that he is assured of not being coached by one or more Paternos. To view that last statement in a more positive light, Christian Hackenberg will be coached by Bill O’Brien, the guy who coached Tom Brady in the pros. That’s another leap of faith that Phil might take, but with which you and this turkey will instantly find flawed. A kid coming right out of high school is not Tom Brady, with four years at Michigan (two as a starter) and nine years at the Patriots (seven as a starter) by the time he ran into O’Brien. Hackenberg will undoubtedly be good and he has an excellent bunch of receivers to work with — if, in fact, he plays. Many writers are putting the whole team on his back, though, and that’s a lot to ask of a kid his age.
I haven’t mentioned Tyler Ferguson. As I’ve alluded above, O’Brien still hasn’t favored us with a decision on who will start at quarterback. By all accounts from so-called insiders, Ferguson’s performance in training camp had him on the inside track in the competition for starter. O’Brien has stated that both guys will play this season, whatever that means. Both are solid quarterbacks, but both are untested in real combat. I kind of like the drama that is unfolding here. If we have to wait until the boys run out onto the field at MetLife to see who takes the first snap, I’ll be thrilled.
Quarterback battle notwithstanding — and I’ll admit that the attendant drama is one great way to whip up the troops to an emotional and cohesive frenzy — it will be difficult to match the passion that drove the team through last year. It was the grit and determination of guys like McGloin, Mauti, and Zordich who kept spirits elevated through the adversity of the pre-season bailouts of Redd, Fera, Brown, etc., and then again through the early losses to Ohio and Virginia. That leadership doesn’t yet exist this year. Hackenberg is said to be cut in the same mold, though, and the big questions are whether he will step forward to take the reins and will the older guys on the team accept his leadership. This is probably the strongest reason for some pundits to say, “as Hackenberg goes, so goes the season.”
In an earlier post, I gave my turkish overview of the team without knowing what the final depth chart will reveal. I restricted my commentary to a pretty good collection of potential starters. If we could count on those guys to play 60 minutes a game from next Saturday through the end of the season, a Phil Grosz fairy dust season could be in reach. You and I know that there is little depth available on this squad — and that’s going to get worse instead of better in subsequent seasons because of the scholarship reduction at the behest of the NCAA’s draconian sanctions. Youth, inexperience, and mediocrity will conspire to lose football games — and that’s the reality of the situation Penn State is in. The second halves of games will be rough sledding, let alone the latter part of the season.
Does the B1G still suck?
Another issue we have to consider is whether the Big Ten really sucks as bad as it has been sucking. Fortunately for the conference (and unfortunately for Penn State’s won/loss record), I believe that the league is on the comeback trail. Michigan and Ohio State (aka “the big two”) are loaded with talent and have recruited very well. Scout.com places Ohio State sixth and Michigan twelfth in their recruiting rankings. Wisconsin might have lost Montee Ball and Coach Bret Bielema, but they’ll be back up at the top of the conference, as usual. Nebraska won’t be far behind, either. Cornhusker QB Taylor Martinez is among the best in the Big Ten. Even Northwestern, albeit not on the PSU schedule this year but astutely coached by Pat Fitzgerald, actually won a bowl game last year after producing double-digit wins. To this turkey, it sure looks like the Big Ten is on the upswing.
Breaking Down the Season
So, armed with opinions straight out of the turkey hole, let’s take a look at the season ahead.
Syracuse. Playing this one on neutral turf benefits whom, exactly? Syracuse is a state university of New York, while Penn State has 50,000 alumni in the New York metropolitan area. The game will be played in MetLife Stadium in Hackensack Meadows, NJ. Both teams stand a chance of being overcome by the noxious air wafting over from the Port of Elizabeth. That’s why they call it neutral turf, not because the grass’ pH is neutral. It ain’t. Acid rain has driven the pH of the turf down to about 2.5. Just ask the Giants, who had to switch from metal to nylon cleats because the former kept dissolving at embarrassing moments like cut-backs on runs, and furthermore, the players had to take frequent decontamination showers. But I digress.
People seem to be giving Syracuse a lot of respect this year. I guess they should, coming off an 8-5 season, including a 38-14 bowl victory over former Eastern Independent rival (back in the day) West Virginia. Syracuse is in the ACC now, and West Virginia is in the Big 12, which I think has ten teams at the moment, while the Big Ten has twelve and so does the Pac-12. Confused? Yeah, so am I, which is why I’m still not sure about who will win this game, acidic turf or not. Therefore, I’m going to waffle on the predicted result for now and do a “what if” in the synopsis far down below.
Eastern Michigan. What I call the “Brick Dick” game, due to a conspicuous feature on the EMU campus. (See picture here.) With a demoralizing 2-10 season behind them last year, the Eagles will dig themselves yet another hole into which to hide their phallic mascot this year. I think that unless the Syracuse game is a completely devastating Orange crush, this win is assured.
UCF. Faith and begorrah, laddies and lassies. This one will be a barn burner, a year prior to the same game being played on pH neutral turf in Dublin. The connection to Ireland is obvious: two head coaches named O’Leary and O’Brien. (This game is kicking off at six O’Clock, but that doesn’t count as Irish, already). UCF had double-digit wins including a bowl victory last year and O’Brien’s former boss knows how to coach football, even if he is known to incorporate fatuous misrepresentations into his resume. The Knights’ losses were respectable: Ohio State, Missouri, and Tulsa (twice). Now they’re playing in what many still think of as the Big East, but is now the American Athletic (or is that the American Athleticism) Conference, which is the remnants of the Big East after several departures. (They wisely chose not to include a number in their moniker). Penn State is one of their signature opponents this season, so you can bet that George O will have them pumped and ready. Meanwhile, having once worked for him, BoB knows a lot of O’Leary’s tricks, so it’s on! I think that this is the first meeting of these two teams in which UCF has an excellent chance of winning. Disclaimer: I worked at UCF, I was awarded a degree by UCF, and I live 15 miles from UCF, but that doesn’t make me a UCF homey. I’ll always bleed blue and white (and red, even). However, I’ll reserve judgment on the prediction for this one for the time being. More later.
Kent State. You know, this ain’t the Kent State of old. They wound up 11-3 last year, including a bowl loss to Arkansas State. Sure, they didn’t play anybody, but they beat Ohio, which is more than one can say for Penn State. Used to be that playing a MAC team was an automatic win. That’s not the case anymore. After playing three games, we’ll know whether there’s any leadership worth a damn on the Nittany Lions and we’ll start to see how injury replacements function. If either of those significant components are compromised, this game could be lost. No, I’m not kidding. A lot depends on how new quarterbacks and restructured offensive lines perform — on both teams. It’s a home game for the Lions, which means a touchdown, in this turkey’s humble opinion. However, since I consider this another pivotal game, I’m deferring my decision about its victor to the final synopsis, which I’ll deliver when the smoke clears and all is said and done (at the end of the day).
@ Indiana. Not the Big Ten pushover of years past but close to it, with a 4-8 record last year. This will be played in Bloomington, in front of a crowd of about 853. Unless Penn State has some serious morale problems after being surprised out of their jocks by some shocking early season losses, this one should go to the Lions.
Michigan. Oy, vey! This is a Homecoming game, already? I think my friend RD will go into this one smugly expecting something like last year’s Wisconsin game, but this year he’ll be wrong. Way wrong. Michigan is loaded, even with Denard Robinson now leaving his shoes untied for the Jacksonville Jags this year. (Do you know that they have Robinson’s position listed in the roster as “OW”? That stands for Offensive Weapon. The Jags sure as hell need offensive weaponry, already! But I digress.) I see a distinct home loss on the horizon here, with a road game against the Buckeyes ahead on the schedule.
@ Ohio State. These are the times that try men’s souls. Braxton Miller and the gang of Anointed Ones will hand the Lions a defeat in the Horseshoe. No question in my mind about this one. Even a week off is not enough to salve the wounds that will have been suffered against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes might take pity on the Lions and actually waive the charges on the autographed jerseys they’ll give them, although there might be a barter deal for the “God’s Gift” tattoo that Andrew Quarless had removed from his triceps area when he went to Green Bay.
Illinois. Hahahahhahahhahahahha. LOLOLOL. LMAO. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 This is as close to a Division II opponent as PSU will face this year. LOL. The schmucks tried to raid our team when the NCAA declared it a free-for-all. Karma, baby! Karma! 😛 😛 😛
@ Minnesota. Well, give the Golden Gophers a little respect, willya? Last year they did beat Purdue and Illinois, both of which sucked. They also beat our kickoff opponent, Syracuse, which does not suck. But suckage being what it is, Minnesota is a mediocre team that a new stadium didn’t seem to help much. Maybe if the old Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome roof had collapsed under the weight of the snow just one more time — while the Gophers were on the field — it would have helped. Count this as a road win for Penn State.
Purdue. Another dregs of the Big Ten season ahead for the Boilermakers. Are you reading this, Larry Cottrell, retired from UCF and living somewhere up there back home in Indiana? The Boilermakers suuuuck! Posting a solid (?) 6-7 record last year, including minimum bowl eligibility so they could get the shit kicked out of them by the Oklahoma State Cowboys 58-14, the Boilermakers notched wins over such superpowers as Eastern Kentucky, BDU (Brick Dick University), Marshall, EFU (Epic Fail University, aka Iowa), The Illinois Laughingstock, and in-state rival Indiana. Can you see Purdue actually winning in Beaver Stadium? I sure as hell can’t.
Nebraska. Taylor Martinez will embarrass Penn State at the Beave. Just because Georgia beat them 45-31 in the Capital One bowl after the Huskers had received a 70-31 pummeling by the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship game, and just because they beat Iowa by only six points doesn’t mean they’re not going to come back and kick some Lion ass. They will. Count on it. They have a sucky-soft schedule this year, and Pellini will know how to use it to their advantage. Mark my words, RD and other sanguinarians!
@ Wisconsin. At Camp Randall this year. New coach. Lots of good things to be said in Penn State’s favor. But it’s going to be a tough one to win for the Nittany Lions. Yeah, Montee Ball has gone to the NFL, but Wisky (as some PSU homeys like to call them) will have a few decent replacement speedsters, as usual (with a lot of sheer athleticism), to run behind a punishingly behemoth offensive line. Yeah, I said that last year and then the “bunch of fuckers” went and beat them, but this year’s cooler emotions, hostile venue, and lack of depth, coupled with the Badgers’ vengeance will put this one in the loss column.
In the Final Analysis…
Sooooooooooo, with all that having been said, how about a season prediction, Turkey? Huh? Huh?
Yeah, you know it seems to this turkey that other “pundits” are having a rough time calling this season. So am I. Obviously, we’re still dealing with “projected depth charts”, for one thing, and we don’t have much to say for certain, other than that either Hackenberg or Ferguson will have a bunch of hotshot tight ends and one potential All-America receiver to throw the ball to. The rushing defense will probably be solid — until the lack of depth causes problems, which might be seen in second halves of games as well as throughout the end of the season. The driving forces and mental athleticism of McGloin, Mauti, and Zordich are gone and we don’t yet know who will step into the leadership vacuum.
Some experts think the boys can win the first four game, but I think that might be stretching it. This turkey thinks that it boils down to two games that will determine the course of the rest of the season: Syracuse and UCF. We will see whether last year’s spirit can be duplicated, and we’ll start to see how deep the 2013 Nittany Lions really are. Absent good team leadership, this team could lose a lot of games this year. Losing either — or God forbid, both — of those lynchpin games could be the tipping point for the 2013 season.
So, speaking out of both sides of my mouth, here are my ambiguously waffling projections. Lose the Syracuse game and they’ll be 5-7 or maybe, God forbid, 4-8 if they stumble against Kent State (shaddup! — you thought Ohio and Virginia were a lock last year). Win the Syracuse game, but lose the UCF game, and they’ll be 6-6, which would give them bowl eligibility if they were eligible for a bowl. Winning both, they’ll finish the season with a pretty decent 7-5 record. And dat’s what I t’ink!
*****
I’ll be back later in the week with a more in-depth and definitely more FOS prognostication for next Saturday’s (yay!) Syracuse game, which no one will have any idea about and I’ll join the crowd. I’ll break it down for you and offer some quick hitters. You will witness the return of the Perilously Platitudinous yet Penuriously Perfidious Official Turkey Poop Projection, which will make you laugh and cry. The season is upon us and the Turkey is full of shit, as usual!
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rd says
Thanks for another outstanding post!
It’s preseason, so, 12-0 is possible. However, I agree that both the Syracuse and UCF games are pivotal.
The Syracuse coach, Scott Shafer, was RR’s 1st year DC at Michigan with disappointing (very much for Michigan fans) results. Yet, as DC at Syracuse, he transformed their defense into a national top 10.
I watched a lo-res youtube video of the first hour of the ESPN documentary on training camp at PSU. Pretty cool for our fans but not so much for Syracuse fans . Have you watched the full 3 hours?
I’m reserving comments (smug or otherwise) about the upcoming Michigan/Nebraska games until the fore-mentioned pivot has been passed.
The Nittany Turkey says
Yeah, I watched the whole ESPN thingie. O’Brien’s golf swing is horrible. His dad’s isn’t much better, even though he plays to a 14.
As you’ll see below, my last year’s prognostication was somewhat off the mark. We can hope that I’ll exhibit similar predictosuckage this year.
There’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.
—TNT
Joe says
And could you remind us how your preseason prognostication for 2012 compared to the actual results for the season? America wants to know dammit! I’ll give my take for the boys in blue ‘n white’s 2013 season record later in the week.
The Nittany Turkey says
Here’s what I said last year, since you asked:
They did better last year. I completely underestimated the power of Mauti, McGloin, and Zordich’s positive thinking. Quite a mid-season turn-around last year.
Do they have that in them this year? In the inestimable words of the beleaguered parental unit, we’ll see.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
I forgot all about physicality.
—TNT
jd says
10-2. Losses to OSU and Wisconsin
jd says
and yes, i did just watch the espn special before making this forecast. WHAT OF IT.
Steelers are going to have a long year (8-8). Same with the Iggles (6-10).
The Nittany Turkey says
Steelers are sucking so bad. I think Big Ben completed sixteen or so passes last night and wound up with fewer than 200 yards. Against KC, already! The Pirates and the Pens will get more of my attention if this shit keeps up.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
Yeah, optimism reigns supreme. I’ll count you among the sanguinarians. That comports well with your chosen profession. They’re innocent until proven guilty.
—TNT
K. John says
I think you are being a bit pessimistic Turkey. While I am typically loath to predict a record on a game by game basis, I usually do a good job of predicting the conditions the team will face.
Offensively, there is not better collection of starting talent in the Big Ten. While they may start raw at QB, everything I have heard out of camp leads me to think that both players are ahead of where McGloin was at this time last year, where as the rest of the offense is far ahead. Not only do they have the best starting talent, they have depth. You can argue that they might have the best offensive line, tight ends, receivers and running backs in the Big Ten. If they get incremental improvement out of the QB position throughout the season, the offense is going to be good enough to get them to 7 or 8 wins.
Defensively, only Michigan State has better starting talent, and it isn’t by very much and that lead will be non-existent if Austin Johnson or the the corners emerge and serious players. I will be shocked if Sparty field a better D-line. I think the linebackers can go either way. The same with the secondary. The depth in the front seven is a legitimate issue but one that is being over-stated. They have a lot of flexibility up front which maximizes their ability to use the players they have.
Last year I predicted 9 and 3 or 10 and 2. They ended up being far closer to 12 and 0 than most will give them credit for. If the QB position develops quicker than expected and the starters stay healthy (people seem to have missed the fact that they had the injury bug for parts of last year), they are poised to shock.
Now for the prediction, which I don’t like doing but will for the Turkey. I fully expect them to go into Ohio State undefeated. I personally think Michigan is the most over-rated team in the conference and is set up for a big fall. On the road at Ohio State is a 50/50 game. Last year, a few fortuitous no-calls on obvious holding penalties is the only reason Ohio State was in the game in the fourth quarter. The rest of the way, Nebraska is a big one depending on how the defense shapes up. Wisconsin is a bit of an enigma as well but still lacks the firepower on both sides of the ball to pull a W unless something improbably happens or Penn State catches the injury bug.
Worst case – 8 and 4.
Best case – 12 and 0.
While I don’t think the team will be playing the officials and their opponents every single week thanks to the bad press resulting from the bungled Nebraska game, they still have to deal with an improving Ohio State, and an enigmatic Wisconsin. Split the difference and give them a 10 and 2 record on the year.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, K. John for taking the time to provide your version of the prospectus for the forthcoming season. Your perspective is always interesting and well thought out. We clearly don’t agree about some pivotal issues, but that is cool. We all have to have an opinion.
As RD noted, it’s pre-season, so 12-0 is possible. Given a few dozen miracles it’s almost assured.
In this turkey’s mind, one big miracle would be getting through the season without what you call the injury bug. Hell, O’Brien even curtailed full-contact practice because “a few guys were getting banged up.” Injuries are inevitable; as you noted, “people seemed to have missed the fact that they had the injury bug for parts of last year.” I didn’t miss it, though. That’s why I’m predicting injuries again this year. Moreover, the scholarship drought will hit the Nittany Lions hard starting this year.
Of course, right now it’s a tabula rasa. The boys could march into Columbus and pull a 1964 all over again, for all I know. The Turkey was a sophomore then, but he wasn’t yet pulling sophomoric football opinions out of his ass.
No matter what record they post at the end of the season, it’ll be great to see them on the field on Saturdays in the fall. I’m ready!
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
One more thing. Neither you nor I voiced thoughts about the absolutely abysmal kicking game. While Ficken made good two-thirds of his tries, he made none of 40 yards or greater. He did make progress last year but seemed to lose it all in the spring game. Butterworth is simply a lousy punter, worst in the Big Ten.
Of course, with the juggernaut offense you think we have, we probably don’t need to worry much about special teams. We’ll be scoring on almost every drive!
—TNT
K. John says
I just naturally assumed the kicking game would mediocre at bad, the same liability it has been for years at worst.
The Nittany Turkey says
That liability will have to get in the way of a 12-0 season, don’t you think? They won’t all be blowouts. You can’t just throw the crappy kicking game out the window and assume that offensive and defensive mastery will win all those games in spite of this glaring deficit — or can you?
I’m thinking that special teams’ ineptitude will lose one or two games all by itself.
—TNT
BigAl says
I pretty much agree with you, Turkey. Syracuse and Central Florida are the pivotal games. Win both of them and a 9-3 season is likely. Lose both of them and it could be a 3-9 season. Split those games, and the end result will be 7-5 or 8-4.
I think everybody is way too optimistic about the quarterback situation. It’s going to take most of the year for either quarterback to adjust to the speed of Division 1 football. Hackenburg, in particular, since he played in a pretty mediocre high school conference. Practice speed is not the same as game speed. The difference between a touchdown and an interception can be two inches and a fraction of a second.
State is also replacing its center and center is probably the most important position in the interior line because he’s usually responsible for calling out blocking assignments. Howle’s experience at center is pretty much limited to long snapping on punts and kicks and that’s a whole different skill set.
The season will probably depend on how well the offense responds to defense pressure. I expect Syracuse to overplay the run, try a multitude of blitzes, and risk getting burned by big plays. In any case, this style of defense will reduce the time of possession for the offense.
The offense’s ability to go on long drives and hold onto the ball was a big part of State’s defensive success last year. The defense wasn’t on the field forever, like in the JayPa years, and depth didn’t become an issue.
The Nittany Turkey says
Between you and me, Al, we’re throwing a wet blanket on the typical pre-season euphoria of the typical homeys.
I agree about the quarterbacks. No matter how great they were in high school, I don’t recall any being able to step in and instantly excel as freshmen. Same when they make the step to “the next level”, the NFL. Russell Wilson is the exception to that rule, but I digress. There are several aspects of the quarterback role that need to come together. Stepping into a leadership vacuum is tough for an 18 or 19 year-old (since they’re both listed on the depth chart for Game One). Playing in front of huge crowds is daunting, too. How many have you heard say that they get out there and just look at the crowd and take it all in the first time? Finally, the speed of the game, the remanufactured offensive line, and the paucity of full-contact practice will bite either guy in the ass for a while. I don’t really give a shit about this “being ahead of McGloin” in practice crap. There are too many variables from year to year and that stuff is completely subjective.
I’ll take issue with you on one thing, and that’s the second-half performance of the defense last year. Although second-half scoring was pretty even for the season as a whole (PSU 141, opponents 153), if you boil out the blowouts (Navy, Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, and Indiana), it was not. Opponents scored 110 against PSU’s 68 in the second halves of the Ohio, Virginia, Northwestern, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin games. Lack of defensive depth was showing its ugly face last year and this will get worse this year, no matter how great the starters are.
Furthermore, in spite of the old maxim that the reason guys choose to play as defensive back instead of receiver is that they can’t catch, we need the secondary to actually make a few interceptions. I think that Mauti was the team leader in INTs last year. How many times did you see a DB jump a route and let an easy catch slip through his fingers. Obeng was thinking of his new sneakers or something. I’m concerned about the secondary giving up some big plays and not contributing to a positive turnover margin.
Everyone wants to use stats and logic (sometimes convoluted) to justify their positions. Pretty soon, we’ll have a phony stat like baseball’s WAR stupidity to validate us or invalidate the other guy, but still won’t matter. Games are won or lost on the field.
The term “overrated” drives me up a wall. Pretty much depends on who’s doing the rating and what criteria they use, along with what the one who’s criticizing the rating and his idea about what the rating should be. In other words, it’s pure bullshit on both sides of the equation!
—TNT
K. John says
I disagree regarding defensive scoring. The earlier games are outliers. The defensive starters didn’t know what they were doing until mid-season. And the second half letdowns were not the result of the defense wearing down in the sense that they didn’t have depth. It was the result of artificially extended offensive drives, especially against Ohio State. I watched that game from the stands and saw it on video. Ohio State didn’t cross mid-field on their own merit until well into the second half. On an even field with honest officiating, Penn State beats them by three touchdowns. We saw the same thing against Nebraska and to a lesser extent, Wisconsin.
Penn State drew four holding calls during Big Ten play, two of which were against Illinois in the fourth quarter after the game was over then they went 22 consecutive quarters between Northwestern and Wisconsin without a getting a call. All this despite Jordan Hill and Deion Barnes being essentially unblockable during league play.
The Nittany Turkey says
The earlier games are outliers? So, this year, they can skip earlier games to make the stats look right? 😀 The guys will be game ready against this year’s tougher opponents right at the opening kickoff on Saturday? With an inexperienced QB? (Or two?) With a restructured OL? With THUMP drills instead of full contact scrimmages in practice?
OK, so I’ll boil out last year’s first two games in addition to the blowouts. That leaves us with just Northwestern, OSU, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. PSU outscored those opponents 44-41 in the first half and was outscored 75-59 in the second. I could argue that the 29 they scored in the second half of the Northwestern game was an anomaly, if we’re picking and choosing outliers.
What I won’t do is get into officiating discrepancies, which I’ve always regarded as crying over spilt milk. I maintain that poor officiating affects all teams evenly (except when the officials are being paid by Michigan 🙂 🙂 🙂 ), but even if there was bias, what the hell can you do about it? As far as I’m concerned, it’s like having a hole in the turf that breaks your star running back’s ankle. Happenstance. Breaks of the game. Externalization.
If the games are so close that a bad call or two affect their outcome, then shitty kicking will certainly take its toll. But I digress.
You can argue that the defense didn’t wear down last year, and I’ll admit that it held up a damn sight better than I thought it would, especially in view of prior years’ crappiness. However, I will continue to maintain that it will be hard to keep things together for two halves of every game — more so as the season progresses, due to inevitable injuries.
Bill O’Brien comes from a league where the rosters are limited, so he should know how to make the best of a smaller than usual college personnel pool — BUT he’s not working with 53 All-America cream of the crop athletes. With the exception of tight end, there are some mighty large talent deficits once you look past the first string this year.
I could be 100% full of shit on all of this, as usual. You know what they say about opinions. Mine fit entirely into that description but I love to spew them!
—TNT
Joe says
Two points:
1. I blame the second half scoring discrepancy you point out on our then defensive coordinators inabilities to respond to adjustments made by our opponents. He for the most part never deviated from his defensive game plan.
2. Every NFL team does not have 53 All-America cream of the crop athletes on their roster. You’re a Steelers fan, what happened when they brought in the “next man” after Ben got hurt. Yeah subs may be more talented in the pros, but there still is a huge drop off after the starting line up. Talent doesn’t stick around to be a back up.
The Nittany Turkey says
1. OK, I’ll blame it on Roof.
2. Obviously Oakland doesn’t! OK, slight hyperbole here. What I was trying to do was goad K. John into a $100 bet, which he tacitly eschewed.
—TNT
Joe says
Yeah I noticed he wasn’t willing to put the $$ where the mouth is!
K. John says
I am philosophically opposed to gambling.
The Nittany Turkey says
That branch of your philosophical tree saved you $100, something that the French philosophers never accomplished.
—TNT
K. John says
The reason I referred to the early games being outliers is because they were. Go watch some of the film. Most defenders, including Mauti and Hodges didn’t really understand their role in the defense. It took three games for them to figure it out and another two to three to master them. How many bad angles has Hodges taken during his career? How many times has Mauti overun a play? The answers to both of these question is not many, with the exception of the first three games of last season. Once they got their legs under them, it was game on.
As for the officiating, the thing is, the games wouldn’t have been close enough for one or two calls to determine the outcome if the officiating was normal. It wasn’t. Personally, I don’t care what anyone says, I count Ohio State and Nebraska as wins. As far as I am concerned, Penn State won the Big Ten title in 2012.
The Nittany Turkey says
I never disagreed that they were outliers (by some definition). I’m just saying that such outliers (for whatever reasons) can and do happen in any season. That’s why there’s a phenomenon known as “Upset Saturday”. That’s why gamblers often go broke. Ain’t no such thing as a sure thing. However, if you think there is, I’ve got $100 and all the witnesses who read this saying that the 2013 Nittany Lions won’t win 10 games. Want to take me up on that?
—TNT
K. John says
I think I need clarify myself regarding outliers. Maybe that wasn’t the best term. I simply view the season in two ways. The first part of the season, players on both sides the ball were trying to figure out the new schemes and I don’t think those games should be compared against the games that took place after they figured it out. In my opinion, the defense didn’t quite have it together until after the Northwestern game. The offense really started to come together during the Temple game but was not hitting stride until Iowa.
The Nittany Turkey says
Not a gambler, eh?
I didn’t mean to get hung up on the definition of the word “outlier”, which I think we both understand to mean approximately the same thing — that the first few games last season were substantially different from the remainder of the season for whatever reason. The team had not yet begun to play cohesively and was further distracted by all the crap thrown off by the NCAA sanctions. We have no quarrel there.
What I’m saying, though, is that this sort of thing can happen in any year in the college sport. Teams change drastically from year to year because of limited player eligibility. They graduate and newbies join the squad. No matter how good the recruits are, it is inevitable that there will be a period of adjustment. These guys don’t have pre-season games like the NFL to work out kinks and determine whether the guy who looked great in high school and on paper is a bust in a real college game. That stuff has to happen during the first few games. So, I guess you could consider the non-conference games the pre-season for these guys, and, given that they are early season games, they can be unpredictable, particularly if the components of the team change drastically. The big problem is that unlike the NFL, these “pre-season games” count. Scheduling Alabama the second game of the 2010 season was a gutsy move, but I digress.
This year, the Sandusky crapola has died down but there are other issues that will affect the team’s early season performance. Aside from position changes and new starters, I see the team leadership issue as being key to the success of this (or any) team. Who will step forward? If they falter against Syracuse, will there be a Sean Lee or a Mike Mauti or a Matt McGloin to focus these guys? If no one steps up and they should happen to actually lose to Syracuse, will they be able to put it in the past and move on, or will an early loss destroy the team psyche, which absent peer leadership is a fragile thing. The coaches can’t do it all.
So, the big question in my mind, to paraphrase your last comment, is: When will the offense and the defense get it together? You’re suggesting that they’ll have it all together by kickoff on Saturday. Past performances and I say that won’t happen.
I could have used the extra $100 to buy Jenny a nice dinner. Aw, hell, I’ll do that anyway!
—TNT
K. John says
Actually, I don’t think they will have it together from day one. I think the defense will be better than the offense to start the season. My guess is that everything won’t come together until the the start of Big Ten play. Luckily, the out of conference slate is not too difficult and they play a couple of team that will challenge them in Syracuse, Central Florida and Kent State. I do expect wins in all them as Penn State is considerably better than any of them up front on both sides of the ball. Not one of those three teams has a player on either line that would see the field in Happy Valley.
I think Michigan might be their first real test. I say might because I can see Michigan struggling to make a bowl game. Unfortuneatlye, I can also see a scenario where Ohio State is the first team that actually challenges them, and if that is the case, the result might not be pretty. But make no mistake, I think Penn State has the best starting lineup in the Big Ten. Only Michigan State has better defensive personnel and nobody can match them offensively. Of course, they have to develop a QB for it to mean anything. with that said, if they failed on the QB front, with the talent they have, I still see at least eight wins if they bring back the good old fashion JoePa offense with Zwinak pounding away for four quarters.
Joe says
On paper this team appears to have sufficient talent to win eight, nine or ten games, but there are a few questions that will certainly affect the numbers in the respective win/loss columns.
-Quarterback. How long does it take for the two rookie QB’s to grasp BoB’s offense and recognize the game speed of Div 1A football? While I like to think there will be some separation between the two over the first 3 or 4 games, and a “starter” will clearly come forward, I’m not 100% sure that will occur and I can possibly see a “QB controversy” on the horizon. I would love to see them find a way to RS Hackenburg this season and go with Ferguson just because I think it’s better in the long run. Everyone seems to forget that McGloin didn’t come out of the gate playing like Kerry Collins last year, so I see the experience issue at QB giving us maybe a non-con loss and maybe 2 or 3 B1G losses this year.
-Skill positions (including the OL). From a depth standpoint, I think we’re okay at OL, RB, WR, TE and DB. In fact I think there are a handful of guys that could be playing on Sundays in these groups. There seems to be sufficient talent depth that we could survive an injury to a key player or two without to much of an impact. But does Carter, Zwinak or Robinson repeat the seasons they had in 2012? Does Belton finally play to his potential? Do the opposition defensive coordinators figure out a way to shut down the TE’s? Overall the talent at the skill positions could negate a bit of the inexperience at QB and could pull our chestnuts out of the fire in a game or two that looks like it might end up in the loss column in the fourth quarter. This group is good enough to keep us in every game.
-Paucity of talent at DL and LB. Lot’s of inexperience here and after the first group it gets scary. I think LJ will have a decent rotation, but other than Barnes there are a lot of unproven players. Barring injury, I think they will be fine after the first 4 or 5 games, but again they are unproven and could cost us a game or two over the season. LB is downright frightening (damn Issah and his counterfeit $20’s). I think the first three are fine, but if you look back over the last several seasons, we seem to pretty consistently lose a starter at some point. I think Butler will be doing some creative alignments with Amos or Willis, but again I think weak LB play may be another reason for a loss or two during the season.
-Roof vs Butler. I like having Butler running the defense, but is he up to the challenge of running the whole show? I thought Roof was either too reluctant or just not smart enough (stubborn?) to make necessary adjustments during some of the games last year. Defensive points will also be very important this year. We’ll see, but again, I think the defense overall is going to be responsible for a couple losses this year.
-Special teams. Hopefully kickin’ Ficken and Mrs Butterworth will be much improved over last year. There will be games where they will either need to make that 40+ yard field goal to win the game or place the ball inside the 10 to help preserve a win. Obviously you can’t afford to have Carson, Hull and a whole bunch of other guys on KO/punt teams due to the risk of injury, so who among the “run-ons” takes their place?
-The Non-Cons. On one hand I think all four non-con games are winnable (I believed that to be true in 2012 also and look how that turned out), but I think Syracuse and UCF are not sure things and Kent State may be one that is overlooked, but I’m still going to say 4-0 here with one ugly and one down to the wire win in the bunch, but would not be surprised if there is a loss to either Syracuse, UCF or Kent State.
-The B1G. I think to a greater or lesser extent, every team in conference will have the same and perhaps more issues that the Nits have this year. What happens to the Buckeyes if His Highness, the Duke of Columbus, Lord Braxton Miller gets injured? Remember he did get knocked around last season. I think Michigan is good, but not as good as everyone gives them credit (next year will probably be their coming out party). Wisconsin? Nebraska? (Did ya watch the B1G championship game last year?). So I think there are a couple three losses here, don’t know where, but I think that’s just the nature of the beast. Overall I see N’western winning their division and beating OSU in the B1G title game. I can also see us getting surprised by someone else in conference, but I think 3 losses worst case, 2 losses best case and I think we beat OSU in Columbus because it’s the right thing to do!
I could have echoed “Evil Bill O’Brien’s” prognostications:
http://victorybellrings.com/2013/08/23/evil-bill-obriens-fearless-2013-predictions/
but I think I’ll go with a 9-3 or if the good lord is willing and the river don’t rise, 10-2. This could all go to shit and end up 6-6 or worse if all the things I listed above happen.
I do however think that 2014 is going to be bad.
Oh notice I didn’t use the word “athleticism” in my comments (see what I did here!)
The Nittany Turkey says
No you couldn’t have echoed Evil Bill’s prediction! He’s clearly delusional. You’re too reasonable to go the 12-0 route, knowing that even with the best of team components, shit can and will happen in college football.
I think you wrote the most convincing and engaging overview of the season I’ve read thus far. I have no quarrels with any of your logic.
I do think that the lack of depth at LB will turn out to be a serious issue. Seems like there is a lot of polarity on that subject. Half of what I read is that it will be a big problem; the other half pooh-poohs it and calls it overplayed.
It will not be possible for the offense to be “banging on all 10 cylinders” (10 because I’m a BMW guy) at the outset. You’re realistic about that, too, although somehow you’ve got the Lions winning all four non-conference games.
Larry Johnson’s penchant for rotating DLs might create some issues. LJ is great with the players, and it was a great idea to keep him around to keep the Paterno for Pope people somewhat moist through the regime change, but I’m not convinced that his scheme is best for this team, especially with the dearth of available talent as the recruiting sanctions take hold. So, what the hell do *I* know. I just like to piss people off by suggesting blasphemous things like replacing LJ.
Again, Joe, thanks for your comprehensive thoughts!
—TNT