Archives for October 2011

The Nittany Lions have said that they feel good about themselves, even though the media and fans seem to be dissing their performances. Even in winning, as they did Saturday, they have looked lackluster and unimpressive. Some of the early season problems are still problems, yet somehow they have managed to amass a 6-1 record, which implies bowl eligibility, and are 3-0 in the Big Ten.

Saturday’s effort was pretty much business as usual for this squad, as Penn State (6-1, 3-0 Big Ten) defeated Purdue (3-3, 1-1 Big Ten) 23-18 before a less than sold out Beaver Stadium on a clear, but windy Homecoming Day.

Although total yards gained were about even (367 for Penn State and 344 for Purdue), PSU played the kind of ball control game needed in order to prevail. In a balanced passing/running attack, the quarterback tandem was 10-23 for 185 with one interception, while the running game was good for 182, with feature back Silas Redd ringing up 131 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Crowd favorite Curtis Dukes had 6 for 21 yards. Without Derek Moye, the receiving corp stepped up, led by Justin Brown with four catches for 86 yards, including a circus qualifying one-hander with the other hand tied up with a defender, a catch that amazed the crowd and made the highlight reels.

The defense was surprisingly spongy up the middle. Purdue managed to be able to run for 162 yards against the vaunted front seven. However, the mighty defenders redeemed themselves with Nate Stupar’s two interceptions.

The game was won on the field goal kicking and punting of Anthony Fera. Let us hope that he lays off the booze for a while, because he is fast becoming a crucial element of a team with few or deficient offensive weapons. Fera was 3-3 through the uprights on a very windy day, with his long one being 40 yards. He punted six times for an average of 44.5 yards, with three inside the 20 and a long one of 69 yards. On the return end, Chaz Powell had a delightful 92 yard kickoff return, marred by a questionable unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  Alas, the defensive special teams squads weren’t functioning all that well, giving up kickoff return yardage of 146, including a 71 yard run by Raheem Mostert.

Red zone difficulties let up a bit for the Nittany Lions. On this day, the problems were mostly concerned with moving the ball into the Red Zone. Today’s Scuzzy Red Zone Wrap-Up is brought to you by Purina Turkey Chow (“gobble us up!”):

1. After Carson Wiggs’ 44 yard field goal missed, Penn State drove down the field inside the Red Zone and scored. Touchdown.
2. At the end of the first half, PSU had first and ten on the Purdue 12 after a personal foul by the Boilermakers. Field Goal.
3. In the third quarter, McGloin completed a 20 yard pass to the Purdue 18. Two plays later, Silas Redd ran the ball in from the nine. Touchdown.
4. McGloin completed a pass to Justin Brown for 34 yards to the Purdue 23, then threw an interception that was returned 55 yards. Interception.

How was the Turkey’s prognostication? Well, I got a couple things right. Penn State won as predicted and did not cover the 12 point spread. Remember, no one ever went broke in the past decade betting against Penn State covering the spread. (Expressed as a maxim, but it could be a lie. It sure as hell seems that way, though.) This Turkey predicted that the “under” would be the way to go with respect to total score, but the final points total of 41 was just a gnat’s eyelash over the O/U of 40.5.

Trivia: Penn State leapfrogged Auburn and Washington to end up at #22 on the USA Today poll.  They received 130 votes (best of the rest) in the AP poll, but fell short of the Top 25.

Now, what about this attendance thing? It was a nice, albeit windy, fall day. The students typically arrive late to games starting at noon, so we’ll give them a bye, but what about the alums and other fans — on Homecoming Weekend, no less. I know, I know. There’s a recession going on out there. Still, I never thought I would see Beaver Stadium looking as anemically populated for a Homecoming game as I did on Saturday. One has to wonder whether this is really STEP Program backlash. I know one season club seat holder who is giving up his seats after this year because he is pissed off at the Athletic Department for their heavy-handedness with season ticket holders.

I’ll be back later in the week for a preview of what usually is a very tough away game at Evanston, as the Lions take on the Northwestern Wildcats (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten).

I like my slogan better than the Citizen’s bank button, which this year reads: “Undo Purdue.” This is Homecoming Week at Penn State, time for snappier slogans like we had in politically incorrect days of yore, for example, “Shitt on Pitt.” Some of these damn things they come up with nowadays are so damn cutesie that they’re nearly inscrutable.

The featured event of this year’s Homecoming Weekend, aside from crowning the king and queen, is the annual Homecoming game. The Penn State Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-0 Big Ten) will host the Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-0 Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium, which we hope is sold out this week. (If we can’t sell out the Homecoming game, what the hell can we sell out? Is the STEP program really all it’s cracked up to be? See here, here and here.) Purdue is coming off a serious cleaning of the Minnesota Golden Gophers’ clocks, 45-17. However, before that, the Boilermakers lost to Notre Dame, 38-10. An early season loss to C-USA Rice, 24-22, seals the deal for this Turkey. The boys from West Lafayette have a porous defense. (Critics of mine will point out that Purdue shut out Southeast Missouri State 59-0, but get serious!)

So, the Boilers (as some call them) will theoretically have to generate some prolific offense to surmount their defensive deficit. I say “theoretically” because it is doubtful that will happen. First, since the Nittany Lions’ offensive performance during the first half of the season, particularly in the red zone, has been abysmal, Purdue will not need to generate a huge number of points to eclipse what portends to be a puny point output by Penn State. However, unfortunately for the Cellar Dwelling Steam Generators, the Penn State defense is stiff and erect even with some significant injuries, ranking fourth nationally behind Michigan State, UCF, and Alabama (strange bedfellows, to be sure) and ahead of LSU, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Don’t expect to see a lot of scoring in this game.

Purdue ranks #20 in rushing offense, though, which makes them seem a serious threat to disrupt Penn State’s conservative ball control plan. They have a three-headed running back, which consists of a Bolden and two Akeems, who along with several others, are averaging 215 yards per game. Of course, all is not what it appears — the 393 net yards rushing in the Southeast Missouri game didn’t hurt their average. By contrast, Notre Dame allowed only 84 yards, while hapless Minnesota lay down on defense, letting the Boilermakers rebound with a 217 yard game.

Two-headed quarterbacks will reflect indecision on both sides of the field. Purdue’s tandem includes one of the best names we’ve encountered thus far: Caleb TerBush, a junior. The other guy is senior Robert Marve. Together, they have not exactly stunk up the place, but close. The Purdue passing offense ranks #93 nationally, with an average of 197 yards per game. They’re pretty consistent, regardless of whose defense they’re facing as the standard deviation is only 30.15. Against the #4 pass efficiency defense in the whole United States of friggin’ America, I would expect them to wind up with something like 168.36 yards.

That defense is bolstered by the return of D’Anton Lynn, who has been suffering the aftereffects of a concussion. They should be pretty pretty pretty solid. The Penn State rushing defense has been allowing fewer than 100 yards per game and ranks 17th nationally. Accordingly, don’t expect to see the triple-header ringing up big numbers.

On offense, well, you know all about the Nittany Lions’ scoring woes — they rank 93rd nationally in scoring offense, averaging 21.5 ppg. (I love how sports writers spew crap like “Penn State has quietly crept to a 5-1 record…” Yeah, right. The only well rounded opponent they’ve seen is Alabama.) The passing offense, ranked 82nd, takes a big hit this week as top receiver Derek Moye sits out with a broken foot that he suffered in a fall down his apartment steps this past Tuesday. Moye’s contribution to the passing offense cannot be understated. Of the 1273 yards gained passing, Moye accounts for 485, and he has three of the six passing touchdowns. It will be up to Justin Brown, Devon Smith, and Shawney Kersey to pick up the slack. This Turkey suspects that the offense will be pretty well grounded this week.

Silas Redd is up to the task. Expect another decent performance from him this week. Brandon Beachum will be back as Redd’s backup, and Curtis Dukes has already proven himself worthy there. If it weren’t for a still shaky offensive line, I’d say that Penn State could win this one on the ground. However, the rushing game ranks only #53 nationally, about on par with Purdue’s defense. This is one big fat statistical misrepresentation if ever there was one! While Purdue’s 59th ranked rushing defense averages 143 yards per game, the Boilermakers played only one opponent with a half-assed decent running game, Notre Dame, who burned that defense for 287 yards. So, don’t give me #59, already. They suck. Larry Cottrell could run for 100 yards against them with the McCabe Sisters blocking for him.

Unfortunately, Penn State has long run a conservative, plodding game plan that lets lesser opponents hang around for most of the game with a chance to win. I don’t expect much different this game. A lot of the explosiveness potential has been drained with the loss of Moye. Once again, we’re in for a thriller when no one wants to be thrilled.

It’s another noon start, folks, and you know what that means. Yeah, the offense will not wake up until late in the first half. It has rained for several days, which will dampen enthusiasm as well as the playing field. A good sign, though, is a robust Paternoville, in spite of the rain. So, while this Turkey hopes for a Homecoming blowout, all signs are that this will be a repeat of the past two weeks’ slumberfests.

What we’re going to do right here is to segue directly to the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, which is always predicated on poop. Penn State is a 12 point favorite with a 41.5 over/under. I’ve already told you that I expect a low scoring game, so take the under. Will the ever cynical Turkey predict that Penn State will cover the spread? In a Two Heads Are Better Than One special, where indecision trumps stability, your Thanksgiving bird feels that the Nittany Lions will once again fail to cover. Anthony Fera better avoid that stairway in Derek Moye’s apartment, because he’ll be a key figure. Don’t expect to see many, if any, passing touchdowns. Bolden can’t hit anybody, and absent a huge target like Moye, whether McGloin can is a crap shoot. Meanwhile, Caleb TerBush still has the best name of any opposing player thus far. I’m stalling. I know. My crystal ball is unclouding … here we go … Penn State 16, Purdue 10.