Here’s an interesting post from NittanyNick over on in the premium board at FOS detailing the number of scholarship players on the Penn State squad, the years they were recruited, and their star ratings. I thought I’d re-post it here without permission because it’s widely available information, except for Nick’s synopsis, which is better than anything I could write. This demonstrates how hard we’ve been hit and will continue to be hit by the NCAA sanctions — not only in terms of the scholarship reductions imposed by them, but also because of the potential top-notch recruits driven away by them.
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Lot of talk about the impact of sanctions and our talent level compared to other teams. As best I could I looked back at our recruiting classes. Below are the players still on our team from the 2009-2013 classes. The star ratings are from 247. Just used them because you can do a couple of different sorts with their rankings.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Carson 4* Baublitz 4 Zettel 4 Lewis 4 Hack 5 Gress 4 Zwinak 3 D. Smith 4 Wilkerson 4 Breneman 4 Urschel 3 Bars 3 Barnes 4 Lynch 4 Sickels 4 SOA 3 Diff 4 Belton 3 Wartman 3 Nelson 4 Howle 3 CJ 4 Kline 3 Gaia 3 Ferguson 4 Gilliam 3 Kenney 4 ARob 3 A. Johnson 3 Hamilton 3 Willis 3 Daq. Jones 3 Carter 3 J. James 3 Mahon 3 Felder 3 * Amos 3 Dowrey 3 J. Smith 3 Shrive 4 * Matt Z. 3 Daq. Davis 3 Bell 3 * * Alosi 3 Lucas 3 Cothren 3 * * Mangiro 3 Golden 3 Cothran 3 * * Wooten 3 Williams 3 Anderson 3 * * * Laurent 3 Hartman 3 * * * Kiley 2 Gaines 3 * * * Warner 2 A. Smith 2 9 7 12 15 15 That is a total of 58 players brought in on scholarship. We are red-shirting 8 players and we have 2 out for the year, which leaves us 48 scholarship players for this year. To make matters worse from the 2009-2011 classes we have 28 players. We barely have enough scholarship players to field a 2 deep. Plus just like every team we have our share of busts still on the team (Shrive and Kenney for example)
For most teams the 2 deep is made up of players who have been in the program 3-5 years. We only have 28 scholarship players who have been in the program 3-5 years. Freshmen often don’t play not because they don’t have talent. Some need to mature physically and mentally, it takes time to learn the system and sometimes there is someone better playing ahead of them. We may have more “star” talent then some of the teams we lost to but more goes into that than just looking at the stars.
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So what do you think, hot shots?
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lando says
So, I’m thinking at least 5 or 6 very lean years for PSU football…never a ranking, never a bowl game, nary a winning season….scholarship limitations and what will likely be , in my opinion a lot of coaching turnover will discourage blue chip players of even giving PSU a second thought. If your son was a talented high school footballer who you and his coach and many recruiters think has a chance to play on Saturdays, would you send him to PSU? There are a lot of parts that aren’t fitting together well. If I’m wrong please tell me!
Joe says
I think it will get slightly better next year (emphasis on the word slightly) and we should see an exponential improvement in ’15.
And I’m positive the bowl ban will be gone next year, so you can start saving up your coin now for a meaningless game at the end of the year or plan on attending the Croke Park Classic in Eire next year at the start of the season. That may be a better destination than anything we’ll get invited to in ’14. The major benefit of going to a shitty bowl game in December will be those 15 extra practices you get at the end of the season!!!!!
The blue chippers will come; Hackenburg and Brenemen this year, and there are some pretty highly rated recruits (Godwin, O’Conner, Thompkins, Gesicki) who at this point have committed to play for PSU & BOB starting next year.
Ever heard of Matt McGloin? He’s BOB’s poster child for playing on Sundays.
Recruiting and playing on Sundays are not an issue.
lando says
Recruiting and playing on SATURDAYS are what its all about..I hope you’re right…I really do. But I just don’t see it. I think that’s a dream.
Joe says
And the big surprise here is what?
If anyone was paying attention at the start of the season, this was reality; (although I think the scholarship number might be a bit higher as I don’t see Mrs Butterworth and Kickin’ Fickin on the list, unless of course they don’t have scholarships!) Of course who looks at the composition of the roster. “Well we were 8-4 last year, we’re certainly going to be at least 10-2 or 11-1 in 2013!”
Of note is 2009 and 2010, which are the vestiges of the efforts spent by “Stay at home Joe” and his aging staff. Of course a lot of the kids who did get scholarships in those classes left of their own volition, stayed to get a degree but decided not to play football or took the first train out of State College through the generosity of a ticket payed for by Mr Emmert.
No the situation BOB and his staff have this year is everyone expecting a Mercedes (or BMW-deference to the NT), but half the parts he has to put the car together are from Ford!
The Nittany Turkey says
No big surprises — just a little information in a concise form that helps focus in on what we knew and know.
—TNT
BigAl says
Looks like most of the recruited players or on offense or are defensive linemen. So, lack of depth and/or talent might be a valid excuse for why the defense sucks.
But that argument doesn’t explain why the offense has underachieved and the lack of experience excuse is weak because it only applies to the quarterback and tight ends. Either the offensive talent is over rated (a distinct possibility since the raters are probably math geeks who have never played a down of football), or the offensive coordinator isn’t making the most of his “talent.”
I think things get worse next year. The record may not be too much worse – UMass, Akron, and Temple are three guaranteed wins – but the Offensive Line is going to be really, really thin, They’re going to have just 5 guys with any real playing time – Diffenbach, Smith, Gilliam, Alosi, and Mangiro – so everybody better stay healthy.
Joe says
Well I think the defense just sucks due to depth, talent, injuries, brain farts, inexperience and the alignment of the planets.
Check out the 96 yard TD drive that Minny had last week to go up 10-0. Lots of blown coverage, lack of contain and inability to shed blocks.
http://www.blackshoediaries.com/2013/11/14/5098482/bsd-film-room-penn-state-minnesota-john-butler-defense
Lots of speculation on the offensive side woes. I think the OL is passable, but agree they will need some bodies next season and beyond. They have some youngsters on the roster who on paper look promising, but are most likely not getting a lot of playing time other than BOB’s Tuesday scrimmages. Do we have the talent at TE & WR (other than Robinson) that we thought was there at the beginning of the season? Sure doesn’t look like it. Carter & James seem to have slipped back into non-existence, perhaps because in most offensive schemes, the TE is a checkdown receiver and I don’t know if Hack has gotten to the point where he can run through his reads yet plus they’ve dropped a bunch of passes. Breneman shows potential, but again he’s a true freshman and probably should have been given a RS this season. Also, I would assume that BOB has dumbed down the playbook this year.
Likewise Felder seems to have disappeared and Kenney has been AWOL with BOB (when asked about him during his presser this week) saying he’s working hard at practice. Don’t know if he ever did show anything the previous years other than he’s fast. Lewis has potential, and I think you may see more of him now that Felder’s hands seem to have turned into stone. Throw a freshman QB in the mix and if the skill players aren’t firing at 110% you get the results we see on Saturdays.
At this point there are no OL commits for next year’s class. It’s looking more and more like they might land Holley (4-5 *) and they’re looking good with a couple of JUCO lineman, but no one has said “I do” to the Lions yet. He has a pretty good DE & DT on the books, but February is a long way away. I do think the bulk of the scholarships he has left for ’14 will go to the OL/DL.
I do think you’re correct and we’ll see a season similar to this year in 2014 and I think that is to be expected.
So much is going to depend on the youngsters on the roster today and the ’14/’15 recruiting classes to determine when we are able to climb out of the muck and mire of Emmert’s swamp.
jd says
i have seen enough positive change in this program to be patient.
The sanctions will be gone soon, the depth of talent will increase, and we will rise up.
The Nittany Turkey says
Yeah, Drozz, but I’m an old man. How long will I have to wait?
I’m happy watching them play, warts and all. I’ll take anything positive that comes along as a bonus. Like Lando, I believe there will be lots of coaching turnover and a lot of reassessment everywhere before this program turns around.
—TNT
Joe says
Interesting article. I think the road is also littered with 5 stars, although the odds of getting one of these guys to actually produce is higher over their collegiate career.
http://www.collegian.psu.edu/football/article_b391ebec-4ce7-11e3-98c5-001a4bcf6878.html
The Nittany Turkey says
For those hung up on five-star recruits, I have two words for you: Anthony Morelli.
—TNT
lando says
EXCELLENT point, TNT…I think fans are foolish to go by these star ratings on kids coming out of high school…that doesn’t guarantee wins and bowl games. PSU has a very long row to hoe as my dad used to say. I’m an alum and a season ticket holder, my 3 sons are PSU grads so I’ve drunk the Kool Aid for a long time, but, damn, a lot of people have done a lot to maul this program and scuff the shine off it. It pisses me off but I’m calling them as I see ’em.
The Nittany Turkey says
We all love PSU — in my case for 50 years. We all want to see the football team do well, and we’re all critical of lots of extraneous factors when they don’t. Some of us will blame officiating, bad coaching, etc., when it is actually a dearth of talent and limited ability of the players causing the issues here.
Recruiting during the “Stay at Home Joe” period (credit to Turkey reader Joe) was abysmal, although linebackers and defensive linemen tended to ignore the warning signs and rely on the Penn State reputation. So, yeah, there are three interrelated things at play here: 1) limitation of scholarships, 2) ability to recognize and recruit talent, and 3) reputation of the institution as a drawing card.
Unlike Joe (the reader — I typically refer to Joe P. as “St. Joe”), I do not believe that Matt McGloin playing backup to Terrelle Pryor for da Raidahs is a primo drawing card. First of all, he wasn’t completely an O’Brien product. Second, he was a walk-on (that’s the accepted terminology — I don’t work for O’Brien, so I don’t have to say “run-on”), so he wasn’t recruited. And third, it was his gutty letter that opened an NFL door, not O’Brien, unless I missed something very big. Also, it’s the Raiders, who have always been a bit eccentric and still are even though Al Davis is dead.
I’ve ignored the few recruits who choose Penn State for the quality of education they can get, but this is a minor factor, much as we would like to get puffed up and gloat about academic All-Americans. Yeah, Mike Reid, John Urschel… long history, great guys, great players, but they’re the exception, not the norm. Most of the guys who wind up being great players are more in the Dexter Manley category and could “study” anywhere, getting a degree (or not) in a discipline like Parks & Recreation Management — like good old Anthony Morelli.
I think the sanctions are going to damage recruiting for several years to come, which was Emmert’s intent. Even with the number of scholarships restored, will prudent kids not want to go elsewhere? Penn State is liable to get burnt by negative perception. We need coaches who can really recruit, who can recognize and develop talent, and screw the star ratings.
Hell, star ratings keep outfits like Rivals, Scout, and 247 in business, but as far as I’m concerned, as stated in the article whose link Joe posted above, Allen Robinson was a three-star recruit, and that’s yet another counterexample to the star rating system, as if Morelli wasn’t enough; therefore, stare ratings are complete bullshit. The three-star guy will have an NFL career that five-star Morelli can only dream of.
—TNT