Penn State Football 2015 is Nigh
The pre-season college football coaches’ poll is out, so that means your favorite turkey needs to get his feathered ass in gear to begin his coverage of the 2015-2016 Penn State football season. I guess a good start would be to once again poll my faithful readers, all five of you — we lost Mom back in 2011 — to see how everyone views the season ahead. I’ll review last year’s results, too, just so you know how you made out, or to laugh at you — one or the other.
This is an anniversary season, just like every year, so it is my pleasure to tell you that I have been writing this blog since August 2004, although the Nittany Turkey had been in existence for at least ten years prior to that as a mailing list. I wish I had the archives from back then. I know I was as full of crap back then as I am now, but Penn State football has undergone some enormous transformations in my 20+ years of combined turkey prose. The highs (1994-5, 2005-6), the lows ([cue cello] The Dark Years), and so many in-between years that pissed us all off when we thought they would do better. We loved St. Joe when he brought us a Rose Bowl Championship in 1995 and an Orange Bowl Championship in 2006; we hated him when the team languished during the [cue cello] years and through all the in-between years, come what may. Who knows where the road would lead us? Only a fool would say. Well, this turkey fool did, and half the time I was wrong, but I had great fun along the way.
2015 Pre-season Amway Coaches’ Poll
So, here we go with the poll, already. Many of you have already seen it, but for those who haven’t, here it is again.
- Ohio State (62) – 1598 points
- TCU (1) – 1487
- Alabama (1) – 1452
- Baylor – 1365
- Oregon – 1260
- Michigan State – 1230
- Auburn – 1103
- Florida State – 1057
- Georgia – 1026
- USC – 1014
- Notre Dame – 883
- Clemson – 838
- LSU – 727
- UCLA – 697
- Ole Miss – 668
- Arizona State – 577
- Georgia Tech – 573
- Wisconsin – 470
- Oklahoma – 407
- Arkansas – 377
- Stanford – 365
- Arizona – 299
- Missouri – 229
- Boise State – 190
- Tennessee – 166
Here are the other teams that received votes:
Mississippi State 164; Texas A&M 149; Oklahoma State 89; Virginia Tech 70; Utah 40; Kansas State 37; Louisville 27; Nebraska 27; Minnesota 25; Penn State 20; South Carolina 18; Miami (Fla.) 16; Texas 8; Illinois 7; Duke 6; Air Force 5; Louisiana Tech 5; Marshall 4; Utah State 4; West Virginia 3; North Carolina State 3; Brigham Young 3; Florida 2; Georgia Southern 2; North Carolina 2; Maryland 1; Michigan 1; Kentucky 1; Central Florida 1; Cincinnati 1; Washington 1.
Yeah, that’s right. The damn fool coaches picked your Nittany Lions to wind up around 35th, right behind Nebraska and Minnesota. If schadenfreude provides any consolation, how the mighty have fallen when Michigan gets one lousy vote and finishes 53rd. Nobody is showing Jim Harbaugh any respect. Well, hell, he has a significant rebuilding job with what Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke left him. Once powerful Texas is also behind Penn State in the early polling — no respect for Charlie Strong, either, in his first year leading the burnt orange.
These guys are always wrong but I posted it anyway. It’s a good conversation starter, and I know that some of you still don’t think Ohio State is any good, so I wanted to be amused. Consider the Buckeyes’ quarterback situation: they’re so well stocked at the key position that last year’s early season starter, Braxton Miller, has moved to wide receiver. It’s hard to repeat as national champ, though, and when you’re the king of the hill, everyone’s gunning for you, as St. Joe used to say. Moo U. is getting a lot of early respect from the pollsters, as well they should, and Oregon is getting too much, having lost Marcus Mariota.
Nittany Turkey Panel of Experts
As you know, the Nittany Lions were made eligible for post-season competition during the 2014-15 season, but that was not known to be true back in August 2014 when we did our prognosticating, so we predicted only 12 games. Therefore, we won’t consider the exciting Pinstripe Bowl win over Boston College in evaluating y’all’s 2014 predictions. Without the bowl game, Penn State finished 6-6 in 2014.
Our Nittany Turkey Panel of Experts predicted results ranging from 6-6 to 10-2. The panel’s overall consensus was 8-3-1. We all picked individual game results as just wins or losses. And although he got some of the games wrong, our big season winner was Big Al, who correctly predicted a 6-6 year for the Nits. None of us including Al thought PSU would lose to Northwestern or Illinois, but yeah, those were the low points of the season. The high points were the Croke Park, Ireland win over UCF and the overtime game against the Buckeyes — damn near a victory — but clearly not the same OSU team we saw in the playoffs.
This Turkey predicted 7-5 for last year — I was among the fools who thought Penn State could beat Northwestern and Illinois.
Last year’s stories presenting the expert predictions are here and here.
So, what do you think?
This year, our schedule is front-loaded with cupcakes, and it’s pretty favorable looking in general. Penn State opens on the road against Temple on Saturday, September 5, followed by home games against Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, and Indiana — so the common wisdom is that PSU will be 6-0 going into the Horseshoe for the “showdown” [chortle] with the Buckeyes on October 17. Yeah, that’s pretty common-ass logic, but of course, this Turkey has to believe that at least one of those so-called cupcake games is a loss. (Absent such a perspective generating loss, can you imagine the sanguinarians’ diatribe at that point in the season? The sentiment Peter Meter will be pointing straight up. Jeez! They’ll be thinking Penn State will never ever lose another game! But I digress.)
After the Ohio State loss and an away game at Maryland, the Lions get to see if they can avenge a couple of last year’s losses against Illinois (home) and Northwestern (away). Then, after a bye week, the boys return to home turf to take on the Hokeless Wolverines followed by a trip to East Lansing for Thanksgiving weekend, when this turkey must lay low and the Nittany Lions will end the season on a down note. Don’t worry about the Big Ten Championship game. PSU won’t be in it. Phil the Pill Grosz thinks this team can go 9-3 in the regular season, given his usual list of pipe-dream generated fantasy requirements. As for me, I don’t think they’ll get there. How about you? What do you think?
If you get overly optimistic, temper your thinking with visions of the offensive line.
We should expect Christian Hackenberg to have a good season, in spite of the Five Traffic Cones (FTC). After all, it is his final opportunity to impress NFL scouts. After last year, his stock dropped tremendously, so it’s either stop the bleeding or wind up someone’s afterthought on Draft Day. Everybody is thinking that Anthony Zettel and the defense will propel Bob Shoop to a head coaching job somewhere better than Columbia, in order to make sense of the hiring of Jim Haslett during the off-season. The special teams are up in the air again (pun intended), so we’re all waiting to see what shakes loose there.
Please chime in with your predictions for the 2015-6 season of Penn State football. If you think the Nittany Lions will be going to a bowl, please include which one you think they’ll be in, against whom, and whether they’ll win or lose. I’ll do the same. I’m doing this early this year just so’s you can take a while to think about it and so’s I can get cranked up in writing mode. I know it will take a while for loyal readers to notice that I’ve come out of hibernation, and some might not be ready for football yet. Accordingly, I will expect predictions to trickle in slowly. But by all means, do opine. Don’t be shy. Let us know what you think!
Meanwhile, I’ll be working on my Penn State football 2015 game-by-game analysis — or concocting game-by-game bullshit, as the case may be (and often is). I will be back soon with a look at some of those damn cupcakes.
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Artificially Sweetened says
I’ll go first. I usually don’t make predictions, but I’m feeling lucky! So without further ado, I predict PSU will go 8-4, losing to OSU, Northwestern, Michigan and Michigan State. I know I’m being generous. As for the bowl game, I’ll predict they go to the Music City Bowl, but I won’t hazard a guess as to their opponent because I’m too lazy to do additional research right now, and because I am thinking of cupcakes.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, AS, for being first in so many ways!
Although many things you have are contagious, your Penn State optimism is not, at least in this here turkey’s direction. I can see losses to those teams you mentioned, although nobody is looking at Michigan for much of anything this year. Harbaugh gets an Obamaesque free ride because he can blame it all on his predecessors. If PSU can’t generate enough offense (like last year), they’ll surely be eaten again by the Wolverines.
Did our late spring visit to Nashville give you the desire to return there for the Music City Bowl? By the way, I believe the official name of that game is the longest of all the bowls (Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl) but I’m too lazy to count to see if it’s actually longer than the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl. Furthermore, I’m also too lazy to see what a plausible match-up for the FAMMCB might be, so I’ll declare your logic as being consistent with mine and therefore, valid.
Gotta love your team spirit, along with the rest of you. I noticed that you’re still carrying your PSU matric card. That’s dedication.
Gotcha on record for 8-4.
Go Lions!
—TNT
rd says
Even though I’m interrupting the love fest, I think AS is on the right track. “Hope for best, expect the worst” Mel Brooks. When we progress beyond FTC, wild-eyed predictions may abound. Even so, I’m predicting 9-3 while harboring massive worries about the OL. I may need a few more disclaimers but there’s plenty of time to embellish before Temple.
The Nittany Turkey says
Good to hear from you, Phil. Oops, I mean RD. You need more than disclaimers — you need the prayers I referred to in the title. Nevertheless, thanks for your buoyant projection!
—TNT
jd says
8-4, with losses to michigan state, OSU, northwestern, and one cupcake choke.
My hopes are simple-hack progresses, and franklin’s playcalling and clock management improves to marginal.
The Nittany Turkey says
Your prediction, Drozz, although still somewhat optimistic in view of what we’re working with here, is getting closer to what I think is a reasonable expectation for the season. Yeah, I have to believe there’ll be at least one cupcake choke, as well as one conference game PSU is “supposed to” win, but doesn’t. I hope the red zone woes of recent history don’t repeat, but again, I refer you back to the title of the post: Let Us Pray. Thanks for weighing in, and I hope all is well with you and family.
—TNT
K. John says
I like the defense a lot. I think they will be better than last year having upgraded both defensive end positions and one corner with Lucas moving to Safety replacing Amos, Trevor Williams moving to boundary corner where he is better suited and Haley moving in as the field corner. Overall, Penn State has the best player in the Big Ten at no less than five spots on defense and maybe as many as seven. Regardless, Penn State will again have the best defense in the Big Ten and maybe the nation.
Hackenberg remains the best QB in the Big Ten, the return of Brenneman and incremental improvements out of Hamilton, Godwin and Lynch easily give State the best skill position talent in the league. The big question is the line. There were plenty of reason for optimism in the o-line by season’s end. Nelson was very good last year despite little fanfare. Had he played the entire season at right tackle, he would have been a 1st or 2nd team all Big Ten pick. When Mangiro lined up at center he was very good. Not all Big Ten good but good nonetheless. He is probably the #2 returning center in the conference. In three spring game, Palmer player better than most think though he did get bull rushed on a number of occasions due to his size. He stoned almost every other move thrown at him. He is now 300 pounds and with time, could match Smith’s play at left tackle. The question is inside at guard where they have better numbers than last year.
I am going 10 and 2. They win one they probably shouldn’t (Ohio State) and lose one they should (Rutgers?). An undefeated regular season wouldn’t shock me in the least as they have the best QB in the Big Ten to go with the best defense at all three levels and a easy schedule. While I do not think this team is playoff worthy, even if they run the table during the regular season and make the playoffs (Note; Ohio State was not worthy of the playoffs but got hot at the right time which is why there should not be a playoff), they should take major step forward in year two under Franklin and be the odds on favorite to win the Big Ten in 2016 in Hackenberg’s senior season where they will be loaded for bear.
K. John says
10 and 2 gets them to the Rose Bowl with the undefeated Michigan State Spartans heading to the playoff and the disappointing Ohio State Buckeyes heading to Tampa with a 9 and 3 record.
The Nittany Turkey says
Good to hear from you, K. John, and I hope you had a terrific off-season. You’ve clearly spent some time assessing this year’s team.
As always, I admire your optimism. We’ll all be hopping on the bandwagon with you if they get through those first six games unscathed heading into the Horseshoe, but there is where we may diverge, and I don’t think there’s much hope of a win in Columbus. Furthermore, I do think tOSU is all that, but I know it will be difficult for them to be #1 two years in a row. It will be interesting to see what they do to Va Tech (or vice-versa) this year.
Got you for 10-2. Thanks for the analysis.
Go Lions!
—TNT
Joe says
Finally it’s here! But NT, I really thought you would use this world renowned blog as a springboard to obtain your press credentials so we would be getting real time posts from Thursday’s Media Day festivities. Man you rubbing shoulders and comparing notes with the likes of Flounders, Jones and Giger would have brought readers to this blog in droves. But alas, I guess you didn’t apply or were denied. If the former, you should seriously considering applying next year!
So, in my humble opinion, I do believe they will be better than last year, although I still feel 2016 will be the season we’ve been waiting for. Even though the talent pool and subsequent depth chart have improved, there are still too many position filling walk-ons (out of necessity) and a whole lot of talented but wet behind the ears scholarship players who have yet to be tested at this level. I also think going into the second season being familiar with the James Gang’s coaching and practice philosophy is going to make things run smoother and that may be the biggest plus.
So from a defensive side of the ball, my gut tells me they will be as good as last year and maybe even a tad better, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. It appears they have significant depth to rotate thru all of the positions and perhaps eliminate some of those “gassed” moments they exhibited at the end of a few games last year.
On the production side of the ball, they gotta be better than last year right and maybe the wildcat pages will be pulled from the playbook! There is speed at the wideout position and some veterans so hopefully we will see some separation between them and the defenders. Lynch has the running back position to himself and if he turns out not to be the RB we all think he can be, it sure is nice to have Saquon Barkley and the other four guys waiting in the wings. This should definitely be a plus! Breneman is back and appears to be healthy so losing James may not be an issue, again a position of strength. So it comes down to two of my three concerns; is Hack the real deal and how many traffic cones will we still have on the O-line? (I’ll cover my third concern in a moment.)
I’m hoping that Hack picked up some good stuff from those chit-chats he had with Peyton while they were at camp (hope he didn’t listen to anything Eli had to say) and steps in to the sunlight and shows us he is a real deal QB. I’m not worrying about what happens next year, although he, his parents and Franklin all seem to be on the same page as far as not talking about it until the season is over. He’s got the talent at WR, TE and RB to support his skills, so he now has to show whether he can pull it all together. I’m betting he does.
That premise is based on seeing a significant improvement in the O-line; it cannot possible be as bad again this year as it was last year! I think the line will be serviceable and give him time to throw and also be able to open some running lanes, but he’s still not going to have the luxury of a lot of time to make his reads. If it all comes together, it will be spectacular, if not well crap I don’t even want to think about that.
So my third and perhaps biggest issue is the kicking game and this could end up costing the unanticipated loss or two. Yeah we got the #1 kicker and punter, but they don’t show up until next year. So we replace a fairly reliable Sam Ficken with the unorthodox Joe Julius! Man he can crush the ball, but he does not appear to get a lot of elevation and his accuracy might be a concern as I get the impression he sort of aims and kicks the damn thing as hard as he can. Not a comforting feeling there. I won’t even talk about our punters, but just get used to a 37-38 yard average.
I think there is a chance the return game gets better-there is a lot of young speed on this team and hopefully it will translate into some long returns.
So as far as how the season ends up. Worst case 8-4, best case 10-2, so I’m going to say 9-3. I’m not going to say who the losses are, because we don’t know how the teams will look coming out of camp (including the Lions), all I know is one or two of those may come down to a sub-par kicking game. I’m not about to pre-ordain OSU as B1G champs let alone winning a second NC or even beating the Lions. It’s tough to repeat and I think Urbz is going to have a tough time getting egos in check. Yeah there is more talent at OSU this year than some NFL teams, but I think the QB position is going to be an issue and there seem to be some academic issues brewing out there as well. I think MSU is beatable especially with Narduzzi taking his wares to Pitt, but it’s way too early to pick the individual teams in the loss column for me.
I will say I do expect them to win the non-cons and I will be apoplectic if they lose to Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan or Northwestern. And they will be playing in a better bowl than the FAMMCB!
Can’t wait!
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, Joe, for your always insightful comments. Got you down for 9-3.
Speaking of Jesse James and the traffic cones, did you see that JJ is now #3 tight end after Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth for the Steelers, and that undrafted free agent Miles “I was a dented traffic cone” Dieffenbach is now #2 on the depth chart? Just training camp, but these guys are getting some respect.
I worry about this year’s cones and the kicking game, but I’ve got to see a few cupcake games before I can solidify my opinions. I think we all agree that the defense is going to be something to continue bragging about. I hope we can also brag about red zone performance, but resolving that bugaboo remains to be seen.
In any event, we’re getting close, and the fever is rising!
Go Lions!
—TNT
Big Al says
Turkey, good to see you’ve returned from your winter/spring/summer hiatus.
It’s really too early to make a prediction for the year. You don’t know who is going to get injured, or flunk out. or get kicked off the team for “violation of team rules” (a bullshit non explanation that should be permanently retired) during preseason training. However given what is currently known about Penn State as well as its opponents, I imagine that State will finish somewhere between 5 and 7 (if things go badly) and 9 and 3 (if everything goes well). Splitting the difference makes my pre season prediction 7-5.
To be more precise, I expect them to start out 5 and 1 (with the loss coming against either Temple, San Diego State, or Indiana) and finish 2 and 4 (with wins over Illinois and the Turtles). I think most of your readers have forgotten how shitty last year’s offensive and special teams were and how poorly the defense performed during their last 3 games. If Fat Julius had been the kicker last year instead of Ficken, State would have been a 4 and 8 team. So, I would argue that a 7-5 record this year actually represents a 3 game improvement.
The OL should be stronger at guard and center (hopefully Gaia will wind up where he belongs – on the bench), but weaker at tackle, and therefore only marginally improved at best. If the offense plays better it will because the receivers finally learn to get separation and the running backs have better vision (i.e. recognizing and hitting the holes that aren’t where the play called for them to be.)
The field kicking will be worse than last year and I won’t be surprised if Julius doesn’t get at least one attempt blocked and returned for a touchdown. State can probably forget about converting any field goals over 40 yards away. On the positive side, coverage of opponent’s punt and kickoff returns should be better than last year (it couldn’t get much worse, anyway).
There probably won’t be much improvement in the defense – the players executed Shoop’s schemes awfully well and the league wasn’t used to them. This year the surprise factor is gone, there is less depth on the defensive line, and the linebackers are less experienced. This will be offset by a better secondary play, but I really don’t expect a whole lot of improvement in the defense. Maybe they will be better in the final 5 minutes of the game but I’m not sure they have enough depth in the DL and linebackers to rest the starters during the earlier quarters.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, Big Al, for your always biting comments. I’ve got you down for 7-5, which is pretty much where I put myself this year.
The offense HAS to make improvements. I’d say especially in what Joe calls the Five Traffic Cones, who don’t seem like they’ll improve much, if at all over last year, but also Hackenberg himself, who is really under the gun to prove himself this year. His NFL appeal took a nosedive last year, for tortuous reasons all too memorable to this turkey. Don’t know about the rest of my readers, who as you say, seem to have forgotten about that: amnesia of a convenient sort, I would say. Selective memory keeps the birds singing and the flowers blooming in spite of the drought and the DDT. But I digress.
Akeel Lynch is on the spot this year without the other two members of the running troika around. The cones, of course, will have to move some opposing trash out of the way for him, and yeah, the holes will be fleeting and tight, IMHO.
I, too, am worried about the unorthodox Julius. He’s a novelty, but I’m not sure that he won’t cost us some games, at least with respect to what a Kickin’ Ficken might have done in his stead.
I’m thinking, though, that the defense will be solid, albeit not particularly deep, and the big problem will be scoring enough points to support what I think will be some excellent defensive play. I think Shoop is pretty sharp and will vary his defensive schemes to keep the league on its toes. But what the hell do I know?
All I know is that if the red zone issues continue and they can’t capitalize on turnovers, etc., then they’ll wind up stuck in the middle of the pack. I see them no better than third in the B10 East (duh! – with tOSU and Moo U., how the hell could they finish any better?). Yeah, I’m giving respect to those two teams, even if Bosa is suspended for the Va Tech game and even if they lose again to Va Tech (which I think Urbz has no intention of letting them do — a statement game to start the season is more like the Urbz we all know). I have a feeling that they’ll be jamming Zeke Elliot down everybody’s throat the way they did at the end of last year’s rather successful campaign. And along with Connor Cook’s increasing maturity, Moo U. has some offense for the league to worry about. So, no championship game, no running the table, and no cigar for the Nittany Lions this year.
—TNT