Michigan Opens As 16-Point Favorite over Penn State
My headline gives away my prediction, sorta. I’m picking Michigan, so you don’t have to read the rest if you don’t have time. I just got a phone call that ruined my day, so I don’t want to ruin yours.
I tell ya, we don’t get no respect. Not only did our Penn State Nittany Lions (2-1, 0-0 Big Ten) get dissed on the starting board as 16-point ‘dogs as they travel to Ann Arbor to face the Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 0-0) in da Big House, but also the spread rapidly widened to 19. The early money is all meshuganah Michiganders’ and the mamas who love them.
Oy, vey, what have we gotten ourselves into here, already? I mean, this is close to the spread that was established for Notre Dame and Duke, for Pete’s sake!
Michigan is probably overrated, but they’re riding high on a 3-0 start in this early season wherein the only obstacles have been patsies. The Wolverines mauled Hawaii 63-3 in the season opener, then dismantled UCF 51-14, and shuffled off the Colorado Buffaloes 45-28, thus winning them there games by the combined score of 159-45. (I saved you the trouble of adding them yourselves. You’re welcome.)
Colorado Gave Them Some Moments
PSU isn’t the only football team that can’t handle noon starts. Against Colorado, Michigan blew it big time before they even had time to adjust their jock straps. The Buffaloes stampeded to a 7-0 lead and then good fortune shone on them once again as they recovered a Michigan fumble for their second touchdown. However, they screwed up, letting Michigan in on their punter deep in their own territory, setting up a block that the Wolverines quickly ran in. Still in the first quarter, the Buffs scored once again on a short pass. At the end of the first quarter, Colorado led 21-7.
Michigan came storming back, scoring 17 points in the second quarter to take the lead 24-21 at halftime. Colorado briefly bounded past the Wolverines again on a 70-yard pass play, which Michigan answered with a 42 yard run to pay dirt by De’Veon Smith to take a 31-28 lead barely two minutes into the third quarter, and would add two more touchdowns before the final gun. Final score, Michigan 45, Colorado 28.
I Still Believe They’re Overrated
I mean, who is Colorado, anyway? They’re kind of the Penn State of the Pac-12. ESPN’s meaningless power rankings put them at #37, while Penn State is #40. Michigan’s first two opponents ranked #118 and #98 on that list, respectively. So, Michigan is gradually moving up in class with respect to quality of opponents.
They tell me (“they” who?) that Michigan might have the best damn defensive line in college football, but that doesn’t show up in the above rankings — perhaps because the starters were pulled early in the two cupcake games.
Jim Harbaugh sure as hell deserves a lot of credit for picking up the pieces of Michigan Man Brady Hoke’s Epic Fail in Ann Arbor. Although he is crazy, he has driven his team to the upper echelon of the top NCAA division, and that ain’t Swiss Cheese.
However, through three games, two of which were arguably with the dregs of the FBS, Michigan ranks 47th in passing offense and 52nd in rushing offense (compare this with PSU’s 30th and 113th, respectively). So how the hell do they get to #4?
Is it the defense?
They allowed Colorado to score 28 points on them. Even lowly hometown UCF scored a couple of touchdowns against Michigan. The Wolverines rank 23rd in total defense and 18th in scoring defense. Still, does that look like a #4 team?
Jabrill Peppers Adds a Dimension Or Two
Imagine a linebacker who can do it all; Jabrill Peppers fulfills that description. The 6-1, 205 lb junior is third in the nation in punt returns, having run back eight for 173 yards and a touchdown in the first three games. And, oh, by the way, he has 25 tackles and two sacks thus far this season. This past week, Peppers made history by being the first player to be honored as the Big Ten’s defensive player of the week and special teams player of the week simultaneously. This guy is Mr. Excitement.
Speight of Hand
Redshirt sophomore Wilton Speight has a mere three career starts with Michigan, but he has quickly earned the respect of the team as well as Big Blue fans. He isn’t the most accurate thrower in college football, and he can sometimes drop the ball, not unlike our own McSorley. Nevertheless, the Ann Arbor News describes him as an “alpha quarterback”, who has taken command of the Wolverines.
He’s certainly got “alpha” size. The 6-6, 243-pounder from Richmond, Virginia was a 3-star recruit out of high school and red-shirted his freshman year at Michigan. In last year’s Minnesota game, he trotted out in relief of Jake Rudock, who had been injured. He looked awful until he got a pep “talk” from Harbaugh, meaning that Harbaugh corralled Speight on the sideline and started pounding his shoulders and hitting his chest, trying to loosen up the red-shirt freshman. It worked. Midway through the fourth quarter, Speight got the offense going and brought the Wolverines back from a five point deficit with five minutes to go, taking a three point lead that stood.
Speight throws to a group of talented receivers, including eponymously named tight end Jake Butt, who had seven catches for 87 yards in the Colorado game. Big play makers Grant Perry and Amara Darboh are dangerous weapons that will test the Penn State secondary if Speight can hit them in stride.
Rushin’ in the Bo Tradition
In the Colorado game, nine different runners got the ball from Speight, who himself is a drop back passer and not a running threat. In all, they had 41 carries for 182 yards plus three touchdowns. Senior running backs De’Veon Smith and Ty Isaac split the running duties between them. Together, they accounted for 21 carries, chewing up 105 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. Jehu Chesson, a senior wide receiver, had three carries for 25 yards and a touchdown.
Many Happy Returns
Yeah, Michigan has a return game. Against the Buffaloes, Jabrill Peppers returned two kicks for 81 yards, one of them a 55-yarder. Jabrill was also the prime punt returner, running back four for 99 yards and a touchdown. They could leave it to Jabrill, but there are some other talented dudes involved in punt returns as well.
Defensively Speaking
The defensive line of Michigan is highly regarded. Although they lost Willie Henry to the NFL draft, the rest of the unit is intact from last year. What you have here is the crux of why Penn State will lose. Among others, Fox Sports has ranked Michigan as the top defensive line in college football. The Five Traffic Cones are seriously over their heads and they will wind up on their asses. They will be manhandled in the trenches, and that will be that.
I think the D-line might have dropped their guard a bit in Colorado, doing the noon start lapse. But Crazy Jim Harbaugh will have them pumped up for this game which is for both Michigan and Penn State the initial contest on the conference schedule. Oh, yeah, there’ll be shoulder pounding and chest punching going on there. Maybe Harbaugh will wind up strangling a player (like Bobby Knight did at Texas Tech) before the Ohio State game rolls around.
Notorious Alumnus of the Week – H. H. Holmes
Herman Webster Mudgett (M.D., 1884), better known under the name of Dr. Henry Howard Holmes or more commonly just H. H. Holmes, was one of the first documented serial killers in the modern sense of the term. In Chicago, at the time of the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition, Holmes opened a hotel which he had designed and built for himself specifically with murder in mind, and which would eventually be the location of many of his murders. While he confessed to 27 murders, of which nine were confirmed, his actual body count could be up to 200. He brought an unknown number of his victims to his World’s Fair Hotel, located about three miles west of the fair, which was held in Jackson Park. Besides being a serial killer, H. H. Holmes was also a successful con artist and a bigamist.
His is such a story, you wouldn’t believe. It is gruesome and compelling. Because I do not have the space or the stomach to present it here, I’ll direct you to Wikipedia to read all about H. H. Holmes if you dare.
Ultimately, in 1895, Holmes was put on trial, found guilty, and sentenced to death. Following his conviction, he confessed to 30 murders in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Toronto, plus six more attempted murders. On May 7, 1896, Holmes was hanged in prison at the age of 35. Sayonara, asshole!
Da Wedda
It is still too early to worry much about the weather. AccuWeather says that on Saturday, Ann Arbor will be partly cloudy and will see a high of 70°F with maybe a shower, already. The weather will not provide any excuses for either team.
The Bottom Line
I suppose we’ll get to see how prolific the Penn State offense really is, as they face their first conference opponent, the overrated #4 Michigan Wolveroos. Current line is Michigan minus 18-½ with an over/under of 59-½. Thus, the money says Michigan will wind up on top by something like a 39-20 score.
My feeling is that we still have a porous defense, and that is a problem that could plague Penn State for the rest of the year. I hope they surprise me and learn how to tackle, but the injuries are troublesome. The offense that is necessary to offset the defensive deficit isn’t there yet, either, unless it can miraculously start converting third downs at a higher rate and hanging onto the ball. So, it cannot be a surprise at this point that I’m picking Michigan to win. Wolverines 47, Penn State 17. Take the over.
I’ll be back after the game with a post-mortem.
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Lawrence Hamilton says
Agreed, all the way around. Never been a fan of Franklin since season 1. But I give him credit for his comment about recruiting a ‘la Harbaugh style…”We like to be creative, not creepy.” Makes me chuckle as I think JH is a loon. This comment reminds me of FBI Director Comey’s summation of HRC’s sloppy email business…”Careless, not criminal.” Yeah, that’s what we need in our President. And that’s what UM got with Harbaugh. Unless they get a national championship in 5 years or less they’ll be riding him out of town. He wears out his welcome very fast everywhere he goes.
K. John says
He might be gone before they have a chance to ride him out of town. Go take a long hard look at Michigan’s roster. Next year’s O-line numbers/youth/experience are going to look a lot like Penn State’s the last two years.
The Nittany Turkey says
Basing Harbaugh’s longevity on a national championship within five years is certainly a valid notion. However, Big Blue has not beaten tOSU since 2011, and if that losing streak continues much longer, Harbaugh might not have five years.
San Francisco didn’t take long to tire of the Harbaugh hijinx, but campus politics can be — and typically are — more vicious than in the big money NFL. In academe the fights are so vicious because the stakes are so small.
—TNT
K. John says
But the egos tend to be much bigger on average.
The Nittany Turkey says
That’s debatable. Nothing like a bunch of academic Brahmins running around thinking everyone else is the vast unwashed. I lived in that world for 13 years. I’ll take real world egos anyday over the ivory towers and ivy covered brains of academia.
—TNT
K. John says
I was actually referring to the academics having the bigger egos. There has only one Terrell Owens in the NFL but there are five in every academic department.
The Nittany Turkey says
Amen to THAT!
brent l glading says
Turkey, I have to agree with your assessment. I hope whatever call you got is in
your past and that things are looking up.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, Brent, for the wishes. All is well now — it was the “better half” losing a credit card, causing the other half (me) a lot of heartburn dealing with Bank of America. New cards should be here tomorrow. Maybe I’ll “encourage” her to use Samsung Pay — losing the damn phone would hurt her more than me!
—TNT
K. John says
Meatchicken is, in a word, over-rated. Best damn defensive line in college football? Only if college football resides exclusively in Ann Arbor because Sparty has the best damn in the state. I would have to agree with the Turkey on Harbaugh’s performance. He took a team that isn’t half as talented as some think back to respectability, and did it quickly. How? Good hard-nosed play featuring a lot of old school Big Ten football…and some luck because they were far closer to a 7 and 5 team last year than a lot of people want to admit. I am not sure Michigan actually deserves a top ten ranking much less a top 5.
Michigan’s defense. What to like? The secondary is flat out good. Maybe the best in the country but Jourdan Lewis may be out. The line is pretty good but by season’s end, it will probably be the fourth best in the division. Linebackers are good solid throwbacks but are liabilities in coverage. See Colorado. The X-factor is Jabrill Peppers. He missed a lot more plays than he made against the Bufs due to undisciplined play. We’ll see if Joe can make him pay.
Michigan’s offense. The O-line is mediocre despite what people say. They are set at tight end. Their receivers are very good, not Godwin and Hamilton good but pretty good. Running backs are fairly run of the mill and Wilton Speight is not without flaws. It is pretty much the same unit as last year. If the Lions can get something a lot closer to healthy by Saturday, I like the chances of keeping them in check.
The prediction. I love Penn State’s chances to cover the spread but I don’t like them to win. Why? Turnovers and our turnover prone QB. A lot of those deep passes that have mostly worked through three games would result in picks by a good secondary. It is one thing to outfight a DB from Temple or Pitt for what amounts to an underthrown jump ball, it is quite another with Michigan’s secondary and Peppers roving around looking for errant throws. My guess is, the offense will get some yards, score points while the defense holds the Michigan offense in check but the turnovers kill em. McSorley has a three INT game and coughs it up two more times giving Michigan easy scores.
Meatchicken – 27
Penn State – 20
The Nittany Turkey says
Well, I do appreciate your perspective, K. John. Alas, I just got the news that Wartman-White is out for the season. That won’t help the lack of depth and the lack of tackling. So much for getting a lot closer to healthy by Saturday.
Regardless of his freelancing, Peppers is fun to watch, and Jake the Butt is a Heath Miller in the making. So, even with the frustration of five or six fumbles and two picks, it will be enjoyable.
Plus, it is not a noon kickoff. I’ll be awake and so might the Nittany Lions.
—TNT
Big Al says
Hope your bad phone call wasn’t related to your ongoing wars with IRS and the local Toyota dealer.
The game this Saturday is pretty much the reverse image of the Kent State – i.e. there is little doubt about which team will win, the only question is what the margin of victory will be.
After re-watching the Temple game I’m going to take a contrarian position. I don’t think the special teams and offense is as good as most people think or that the defense is as bad as most people think. Aside from Temple’s first possession, the defense actually played pretty well. Temple would not have scored more than 14 points if the offense and special teams hadn’t screwed up.
Yes the new offensive has impressive quick strike, big play capabilities but they still can’t be trusted to score touchdowns once they get into the red zone or to go on long double digit drives. And it’s more turnover prone than the old offense.. I’m not also sold on McSorely as the quarterback – he’s making too many mental and physical errors. That might improve with more experience. But he might just be a dumbass with tiny hands. (And if he’s also a pathological liar then he meets all the qualifications to be the next president of the US, But I digress.)
You’re right about Michigan being the most overrated team in the top ten.. My prediction is Michigan 38 Penn State 20. It won’t be quite the shootout everyone is expecting and the dumbass Michigan fans that goosed up the spread from 16 points are going to pay for their hubris.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks for the wishes on the phone call. It was neither IRS or Toyota. For details, see my response to Brent above.
I’m growing more cynical (if I can even be that) about Michigan’s overratedness (if that’s a word). I think I still might be giving them a modicum too much credit.
I’m quite concerned about PSU’s fumbleitis and their penchant for otherwise shooting themselves in the foot. Their failure to execute on third down blows just as badly as in any time in recent memory (although they went two for two on fourth last Saturday — woo hoo). I might be expecting too much from the defense now that Wartman-White is out for the year again.
So, it balances out. Michigan might actually suck worse than I thought, and so might Penn State.
The numbers in my mind have changed, but relatively speaking, the performance gap hasn’t. I’ll stick with my original prediction.
—TNT
Joe says
How many years has Jake Butt been playing? Seems like he’s been around for 10 years or at least as long as Tommy Armstrong at Nebraska!
Anyway reality says we will not beat the #4 ranked team in the country, whether it’s Michigan or someone else. There are two many wobbly gears (as expected) on this team so far in this young season on both sides of the ball, most of which have been covered above by the ever increasing NT fan base, to even hope for a titanic magnitude upset that would probably get Franklin a 10 year extension. So another road loss is in the wind but one that may not be as ugly as the spread and everyone predicts IMO.
So I figured this was a loss when I did my predictions, but I didn’t figure on us being 2-2 after this one so I’m not going to even attempt to compensate for my unforecasted loss to Pitt. Wolverines 38 – PSU 24, mostly because I think Michigan can be scored on and they have lived the good life in racking up a bunch of special team scores that I can’t see continuing week after week. On a closing note, I sure wish Peppers had decided to come to Penn State-that kid is terrific!
The Nittany Turkey says
I know, right? Butt and Armstrong, the two 12th year seniors!
I’m still torn on this one. While I think Michigan is highly overrated, the errors I’ve seen our guys make are worrisome. I think we’re at the bottom of the Big Ten in turnovers, and Michigan if a bit full of themselves has an opportunistic defense.
Peppers will be lots of fun to watch, even if he gets in our face as he does with everyone else.
Enjoy the game!
—TNT