OK, so the #4 Nittany Lions (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten) beat the #130 Georgia State Panthers (0-2, 0-0 Sun Belt) 56-0. Big deal! What does it prove?
I’ll tell you what. If they can’t fix that time of possession imbalance, they’re going to absolutely suck in the Big Ten.
I couldn’t believe the crap I saw written by Matt Herb in BWI:
“To anyone looking for evidence that time-of-possession is becoming an increasingly irrelevant statistic, consider this: Georgia State held the ball for just under 39 minutes but was still outscored by eight touchdowns.”
You know what? James Franklin said it, so it must be true? Jesus H. Christ!
Increasingly Irrelevant Evidence
If I’m looking for evidence, I’ll dismiss the first three outings this season. And I think I qualify as “anyone.” I’m finding Matt Herb’s commentary increasingly irrelevant, as it were.
Increasingly Irrelevant Cupcakes
This was Georgia State — no offense, no defense. What happens when we hit the Big Ten schedule next week and face teams with some of both? Then, will time of possession be “increasingly irrelevant?” I bet it becomes increasingly relevant, and I bet that if it isn’t addressed, Franklin, Herb, and the Nittany Lions will have egg on their collective, increasingly irrelevant faces.
I’m not going to recap the damn Georgia State game here, because the result was expected by all of us. Nothing to write about. As I so often state on these pages, cupcake wins mean absolutely nothing, other than some extra practice for the team.
Penn State’s “big” achievement thus far was beating Pitt, but did you see what Oklahoma State did to those Panthers on Saturday? In case you might have missed it, Pitt got the shitt end of the stick, 59-21. Ain’t no thang?
So far, PSU has beaten #106 Akron, #79 Pitt, and #130 Georgia State. WTF?
Increasingly Irrelevant Early Season Polls
#4? I think not!
Increasingly Irrelevant Statistics
One quick way to become increasingly irrelevant is to ignore a glaring issue. Penn State will have to get the running game going and make some more third down conversions. Don’t give me “increasingly irrelevant” statistics! The Nittany Lions rank 125th in the NCAA in TOP, and are tied for 91st in Third Down Conversions. Especially after facing three cupcakes, that suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks!
The rushing offense is ranked 50th. The Lions just cannot seem to get the running game going, even with Saquon Barkley, one of the best running backs in the country, doing most of the carries. The offensive line, of course, is still not where it needs to be. And yeah, remember, we’ve been dealing with cupcakes. (Not even cool ones with axes in them.)
Defensively, the Nittany Lions’ front seven is suspect, too. They rank 50th at stopping the run, and they were consistently beaten by simple shovel pass plays run by Pitt.
Ohboyohboy! Penn State ranks second in scoring defense!!! Yeah, right. Cupcakes, I tell you. We beat a kangaroo and two panthers. All in a day’s work for a lion.
So, let not the early season euphoria make these guys complacent, lest they become increasingly irrelevant.
They’ve got work to do.
I’ll be back later in the week with a preview and prediction for the Big Ten opener at Iowa.
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John Carr says
we had the ball 13 times we either scored or kicked, 4 punts one field goal attempt, meaning we held the ball an average of 97 seconds while Georgia State had 13 attempts to score meaning they ran around for 3 minutes without scoring. not sure what that proves other than we score quickly. bark up another tree. yes I suspect that will even out more when we are in the heart of the schedule but even then when we score touchdown quickly and the opponents score slower still don’t see that as a problem until we end up on the short side of the score but scoring quickly is not a problem
The Nittany Turkey says
Scoring quickly is a problem if the defense has to be on the field for long stretches, even if the other guy is just running around. Facing a decent team (i.e., that which PSU has not yet faced, say someone ranked above #35 or so), a worn-down defense in the second half does not portend well. Furthermore, a decent opponent’s defense compounds the problem by turning those quick scores into quick three-and-outs.
They need to work on ball control.
—TNT
K. John says
If anyone thinks the time of possession, 3rd down, running games issues will magically correct themselves, they are deluding themselves. Contrary to what most think, the line has actually played fairly well this year (and last). The problem is the big issue Joe Moorhead has been masking with his well above average play calling and football acumen. The passing game is extremely limited. The line consists of five players who have to consistently block seven. Until the passing game can credibly attack the entire field, nothing will change. State will remain a big play or bust offense and as the Turkey noted, that won’t get them where they want to go. It will get them close but they won’t be able to finish the deal.
I am less concerned about the defense. If you look at their numbers on a per play basis, they are actually pretty good the last 17 games. The problem was the number of snaps they have to play per game. During the first third of the season last year, they play what amounts to an extra game. I didn’t tabulate the numbers for the later two thirds but I would expect they ended up playing an additional 3 plus games over the course of a 14 game season compared to the Big Ten average. Given the time of possession, I would wager the same is true for this year. Yeah, the defense is going to end up with middling numbers and they have the passing game to blame for it just like last year.
The Nittany Turkey says
Welcome back, K. John! I agree with you, for a change.
Finishing the deal is something that requires a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball, as you stated. Sure, it’s a crowd-pleaser to hit Hamilton deep or let Barkley work his magic after a catch out of the backfield. Fun to watch, alright — as long as they’re winning with it. Playing a high school team like Georgia State, they can play that way and still win. Win big, in fact. Like shooting fish in a barrel.
But against any kind of a halfway decent defense, particularly one that has had a year’s videos of Moorhead’s offense, one cannot ass-ume that it will be so easy. The long ball returns to its rightful place as a gamble. The better the defense, the bigger the gamble.
Does this Penn State team have the capability of grinding out sustained drives or don’t they. If so, we sure as hell haven’t seen it yet.
And we have to look at the other side of the coin, too. An offense like tOSU, even with all its flaws, will wear down the Nittany Lion defense, especially if that defense is on the field so much because the PSU offense cannot control TOP.
Iowa dominated TOP 40:45 – 19:15 over Northern Illinois. “Yeah, but that’s Northern Illinois,” you say. My response is that they’re a damn sight better than Georgia State — perhaps a Top 50 team as opposed to the dregs of the FBS.
They’ve got work to do.
—TNT
Big Al says
I don’t know what K John has been consuming, but the fact is that the play differential was pretty small through the 1st 3 games last year. State ran 196 plays from scrimmage and our three opponents ran 202 total plays. For the 1st three games this year, State ran 170 plays and the opposition ran 230 plays which is difference of 60 plays.
By comparison, the play differential for the entire 12 game regular season last year was only 65 plays (i.e 798 for State versus 863 for the opposition). This “outscore the opposition by 3 touchdowns but let them run 50% more plays” approach only showed up twice last year – against Purdue (63 for us vs 81 for them) and Michigan State (57 plays for us, 88 plays for them). In the blowouts of Maryland, Iowa, and Rutgers, State run at least 18 more plays per game than the opposition.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks for the statistical analysis, Al. It verifies my observations that for all their spectacular plays, the offense has some issues it must address.
I just do not buy this crap about time of possession being increasingly irrelevant. If the differential is small, then I’ll agree that whether someone has two minutes more or less doesn’t make much of a difference, but when the differential is large, it sure as hell does. The defense can’t be very effective in the late stages of a game if they’re worn out.
Sure, you can say that the quick strike offense can build up a huge early margin, so defense doesn’t matter as much. Yeah, you can say that as long as you’re facing the cupcakes. That kind of attitude leads to shit games like Pitt giving up a three touchdown lead — and that can happen to PSU, too, based on a defense I’m not yet fully ready to stand behind.
—TNT
jd says
Line is at iowa -12.5. For a night game. On the road.
Stay away.
jd says
to clarify-its PSU favored by 12.5
Sorry. Sick.
The Nittany Turkey says
Yeah, I saw dat. The o/u is 52.5. I’d take Iowa and the points, and I’d go with the under. That’s my current thinking trend, which could change by the time I write the preview and prediction article, but I’m sticking with it for now.
They’ve got work to do.
Feel better!
—TNT