Penn State’s Big Ten opener will happen on Saturday in prime time, and this will be the first time we’ll be able to learn anything about the 2017 team. The dubiously #4 ranked Nittany Lions (3-0 – all cupcakes) must bring their A-game to Iowa City, where they take on the as yet unranked Iowa Hawkeyes (3-0 – all slightly better cupcakes).
Let’s get a few increasingly irrelevant facts out of the way before we look at this thing footballistically. The Hawkeyes have won four straight night games at Kinnick Stadium, and they’ve won five straight Big Ten openers. (Although a good omen is that the last opening conference loss was to Dear Olde State in 2011.) Four of the five opening wins were on enemy turf. This will be Iowa’s first home conference schedule kickoff since 2012.
The Hawkeyes have won 399 games at home since the inception in 1889. They’ll be trying extra hard to snag #400.
Penn State has been a frequent victim of Iowa, having lost six of the last ten games in the series, which Iowa leads 9-8 since Penn State joined the Big Ten. That, of course, includes the 6-4 classic in 2004, which you knew I would insist upon mentioning here.
Time of Possession — This Turkey’s Increasingly Irrelevant Current Bugaboo
Iowa ranks sixth in the nation in Time of Possession, while Penn State ranks 125th. Now, now, you say — Time of Possession is an increasingly irrelevant statistic! (Matt Herb, you ain’t gonna hear the end of this one — ever! Biggggg mistake to write that in your column after the Georgia State game, Matt! Come on… I know you’re reading this.)
Iowa’s ToP against North Texas was 40:45, the second highest under longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz, who is in his 19th year at Iowa and is the longest tenured active head coach in college football.
In the Iowa State game, Iowa had 29 first downs, and in the North Texas game, they had 28. They rank 24th nationally in third down conversion percentage. (And yes, I’ll mention that Penn State ranks 92nd, through three cupcakes. It’s that quick scoring offense, right?)
Whodat Offense?
The Hawkeyes’ pro-sized sophomore quarterback Nathan Stanley has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the first three games. Two tight ends, sophomore Noah Fant (brother of Ella Fant) and T.J. Hockenson have 12 combined receptions, each resulting in a touchdown (4) or first down (8). The latter, of course, is a key component in the possessions game, which is something I’ll continue to harp on. Junior wide receiver Nick Easley averages 5.3 receptions and 54 yards per game.
Senior running back Akrum Wadley ranks #3 in the Big Ten and #13 in the FBS, averaging 170 all-purpose yards per game. Through three games, he has 258 yards rushing, 152 yards receiving, and 100 yards on kick returns. Yea, verily, he is Saquon Barkley Lite. He is one of the most prolific rushers in Iowa history, with 344 carries for 2021 yards. And he ties Tavian Banks and Shonn Greene for best average yards per carry.
Nepotism
Brian Ferentz, son of the head coach, is the offensive coordinator since this past January. Brian was an offensive lineman and one of the team captains for the Hawkeyes, from whence he went on to a brief and unspectacular NFL pseudo-career. Now, he’s back as OC, and he seems to be doing a good job. In the words of the non-committal parental unit, “We’ll see.”
De-FENSE!
Iowa ranks in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten in all defensive team categories. So, after three cupcakes, we’ll declare their defense as mediocre. Senior linebacker Josey Jewell seems to be the guy to watch up front, with 14 solo tackles, 14 assists, and 2 sacks thus far. Meanwhile, junior defensive back Joshua Jackson leads the Big Ten in pass defense, with six break-ups and two interceptions.
The Kinnick Wave
In a tradition that started at the University of Iowa football team’s season opener in 2017, fans inside Kinnick Stadium and patients and families inside the UI Stead Family Children’s Hospital will exchanges waves at the end of the first quarter.
The UI Stead Family Children’s Hospital opened in 2017. It is connected to the south end of the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics and overlooks Kinnick Stadium from the southwest grandstands. During Iowa football home games, patients and their families can watch the game from the top floor (Level 12), one of the highest vantage points in Iowa City.
The wave highlights the relationship between the football team and the hospital. The Hawkeyes’ “Touchdowns for Kids” campaign has long been a fundraiser and during every game, a “Kid Captain” from the hospital receives special recognition from the Hawkeye football program.
Da Wedda
The forecast calls for a hot and sticky 93° day, with the “real feel” around 97°. If the defense stays on the field too long, it will wither. We’ll see how increasingly irrelevant that ToP statistic is!
The Bottom Line
And so, my Turkey readers, we come to that pure bullshit section of the pre-game issue, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction. Thus far, we’ve been doing pretty well with the no-brainers we’ve issued here, but with no great compendium of relevant information about this team’s capabilities against reasonable opposition, I feel that my luck is about to change.
The Hawkeyes are by all rights a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team, but is Penn State really the best team in the conference? Every game will be a test of that, this one included. In the words of the late, great entertainer Al Jolson, albeit in another context, you ain’t seen nothin‘ yet!
Oddsmakers inexplicably favor the Nittany Lions by 12.5 points, with an over/under of 52. This suggests a 33-20 final score, going Penn State’s way. We really have too little to go on here, so after making a few bullshit comments, I’m going to pull one straight out of my ass. I don’t know how well the quick-strike offense will do as they quick-strike their way to keeping the defense on the field for 45 minutes. Man, they better start learning how to sustain drives. I’m going to say that PSU doesn’t cover the spread and the Hawkeyes make it a good show at home under the lights. Penn State 27, Iowa 24. Take Iowa and the points and take the under.
I’ll be back after the game with more bullshit about what we all hope was a winning effort.
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Jackstand says
I think 27-24 is giving away too much. McSorley+Gesicki+Barkley will not be denied! 38-14 or, at the worst, 35-17.
The Nittany Turkey says
I dunno… In any case, don’t bring anything.
—TNT
Big Al says
I watched the 1st half of Iowa’s game with North Texas (one half was all I could stand) and they didn’t look good defending North Texas’ spread. They gave way too much cushion to the Iggles’ mediocre receivers and were slow covering runs to the bounaries. So, I don’t think State will have much trouble scoring 30+ points. – assuming Trace doesn’t try to channel Hack like he did in the Pitt game.
And Iowa’s offensive is pretty predictable and underwhelming. The receivers don’t much separation (bubble screens are their preferred pass). The only big play threat seems to be passes to Watley (and their playbook didn’t seem to include shovel passes) So, they’ll probably run 20 to 30 more plays than State and still lose by two scores
But those two scores might be a field goal and a touchdown and State might not cover. IMO Vegas is spot on about this game and .I wouldn’t bet real money on either the spread or the over/under. My prediction: State will score between 31 and 35 points and Iowa between 17 and 20.
PS. How can something that just started 3 games ago be a “tradition.” Waving to the kids was a nice touch. but it would have been a lot nicer if the ESpin talking heads had kept their mouths shut about it. They seemed to be holding a competition to show who was the most “moved” by it. For a minute, I wondered if maybe Iowa had hired Guido to do their football promotions. But I quickly discarded that thought because Guido would probably have added a flyover by the Blue Angels to the “tradition.”.
The Nittany Turkey says
Franklin has been preparing the boys for the noise in Kinnick Stadium, so they should be ready for a night game on the road before a raucous, nothing-better-to-do-in-Iowa-City crowd. As ready as they can be. If they don’t shoot themselves in the foot via penalties and what you call McSorley channeling Hack, the offense will do a lot better than what I propose. However, I think this is the perfect game for a wake-up call that deflates these guys’ egos, so my prediction is probably more wishful thinking than it is representative of the relative efficacy of the two combatants.
Right now, as I see it, they and those who buy the #4 ranking are delusional. Whether the deludees are only slightly kidding themselves or there is a huge gap between rating and reality remain to be seen. I’d rather see the ego deflation occur at this juncture, when recovery is possible, than later in the season when it will be harder on them and the rest of us. I’m not suggesting that they get their asses kicked to teach them a lesson, just that they take their share of lumps so they have something to think about and something to work on.
I continue to doubt the effectiveness of the PSU front seven, and my concerns about ball control are obvious. I’d like to see an improvement in both areas in this game. Holding Akrum the Crum to under 100 yards rushing and passing combined, and maybe sustaining a couple of drives on offense, will go a long way toward convincing me that these guys are up to the task. Should I receive that sort of encouragement, my future predictions will be more sanguine.
The reverse inverse sick kids wave pseudo-tradition is OK by me. And you caught me — I lifted those three paragraphs verbatim from Iowa media information. Everybody needs some gimmicks — we have our dreaded white-out and Iowa has their sick kid-out. (And where is Guido plying his wares these days, anyway? Guarding the statue?)
—TNT
Big Al says
I share your concerns. IMO The word that best describes Franklin’s attitude (and his team’s as well) right now is hubris. I just don’t think Iowa has the talent or the right schemes to give State “something to think about.” On the other hand, Indiana does.
The Nittany Turkey says
I saw a YouTube interview in which JF said that he was spinning the pink locker room at Kinnick as a positive thing: “I’m telling them that it is a tribute to our original team colors of pink and black.” Cute, but it is typical Franklin crap, like telling the guys last year that Pitt wasn’t a rivalry. Like anyone is going to believe that Hayden Fry had Penn State’s original colors in mind when he had that visitor’s locker room painted pink. However, I don’t think it gets into the minds of players, and may, in fact, provide some comic relief from nervous tension.
I think the pink locker room is cool — even including pink urinals — and I also think it is pretty funny. However, gay rights activists have called it demeaning and homophobic. LOL… the silly crap we argue about in this country!
Vive le vestiare rose!
—TNT
jd says
I’m taking iowa to 24.5 in a 4 team teaser. It’s the only line I trust in this game.
The Nittany Turkey says
I share your distrust, inspiring me to invoke the noncommittal parent line: “We’ll see…”
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
Furthermore, I’ve always liked the Hawkeyes because they buy their uniforms at the Steelers’ Surplus Outlet.
—TNT
Joe says
Well for whatever reason I’m liking 38-14. Yeah this game has a bit of a scare potential, but I agree with Big Al, there is too much talent difference and plain vanilla Iowa is a better B1G opener than Indiana. Again, I’m not buying any of this poll or power rating BS for any of these teams, it’s just way too early.
The Nittany Turkey says
My original thought before I reeled myself in was 38-20. I think Iowa’s experienced offensive line will be a handful for our front seven, and they’ll be able to spring Wadley for some big gains. PSU needs to get off to a big lead because if they play their quick strike bullshit, the defense will be tired in the second half, even if the quick strikes succeed. But the vertical game has its risks, too. Just ask Darrel Royal.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
See, that’s what I keep on saying. You can be proud of your quick strike offense when it appears to be highly successful — against Akron, Pitt (to some extent), and Georgia State. Sure, it all looks easy, until you come up against someone with a defense. Then, the quick strike turns into a bunch of high-risk misses leading to third-and-long, and a low third-down conversion rate. They’ve got to have a game plan for decent opponents, too. While Iowa might be middle-of-the-pack Big Ten, they’re a helluva lot better than anything we’ve seen thus far.
—TNT