Michigan State (hereinafter referred to as Moo U.) have long relished the role of spoiler when it doesn’t have what it takes to go to the big bowls or the playoffs. In this all-important competition for the vaunted Land Grant Trophy (right), the #24 Moo U. Spartans (6-2, 4-1 B1G), presently tied for second in the Big Ten East, host the #7 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1, 4-1).
Moo U. is coming off a dramatic triple-overtime loss to Northwestern, 37-31, whereas Penn State suffered its first defeat of the season last week in Columbus to a well rested bunch of Buckeyes, 39-38.
So, What to Expect, Already?
Who knows? We have no idea how whether and how much last week’s losses will affect the mindsets of these two squads. Emotion aside, we know a few things about Penn State. We knew that this three-game stretch in October/November would reveal any flaws. Two-thirds of the way through it, it has done so. Moo U., meanwhile, is as always a mystery team. Sometimes they look great, and sometimes they blow. ??? ???? ??????? ??? ?????
Penn State
First and foremost, the offensive line still suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. That unit was completely ineffectual against the Buckeyes, even after it showed some positive progress during the Michigan game. ??????? ??? ???? One step forward followed by two steps backward does not portend well for redeeming this season. Against a stiff Moo U. defense (much of the time, anyway), the offensive line’s presence will be crucial.
In addition, the weaknesses of the defensive front seven we feared at season’s outset were revealed big time against Ohio State’s potent offense. They got run over in the second half. The loss of Ryan Buchholtz hurt even more, but in the end, their talent level and depth were insufficient to do the job.
The Spartans and Nittany Lions have played this series to a flat-out tie, 15-15-1. Last year, the Nittany Lions prevailed over Moo U., 45-12, late in November at St. Joe Memorial Stadium. Is it Moo U’s turn to retaliate on their home turf?
Moo U.
Moo U. has home field advantage and excellent motivation to win this game. It would give them undisputed second place in the B1G East, and it would be a huge boost in their CFP ranking. ??? 365 Both Moo U. and PSU would be 7-2, so who could justify ranking them so far apart? Moo U. would have to move up, or PSU would have to move down, or both. Every win counts big now toward getting those premium bowl invitations. Yeah.
Michigan State offers an excellent run defense. Where have you heard that one before? They’re allowing fewer than 90 yards per game, good for tops in the conference and fourth in the nation. They’ll be intent on shutting Saquon Barkley down.
Pass defense is mediocre, ranking seventh in the conference. Perhaps this will present opportunities for Trace McSorley and his receivers. McSorley didn’t have time against the Buckeyes and his receivers were not getting separation.
Penn State needs to take what the Moo U. defense will give it, and not try to force what isn’t there.
Meanwhile, the Moo U. offense is just so-so. They’re sixth in rushing and seventh in passing in the conference. The Penn State defense needs to stand up and be counted.
Da Wedda
We’re deeply into the fall weather pattern in the north. The forecast calls for crappy weather — occasional rain with a high of 51°.
Da Bottom Line
This is a tough one for the Turkey, whose mind is wandering all over the place. I cannot get a handle on where I’m going.
I think there’s a chance for PSU to establish an early lead by catching Moo U. sleeping, especially their crappy kickoff coverage unit. Having been moved to a noon start, nobody can be truly awake at that hours. What happens after the early lead is anyone’s guess.
The opening line on this game favored Penn State by 11.5, but it has since nose-dived down to 7 and now it has bounced back to 8, showing that the betting public is vacillating as much as I am. The over/under is currently at 48. This suggest that bettors believe Penn State will win by about 28-20.
Since I don’t know what the hell I’m doing or where my mind is going, I’m going to have to pull one out of um left field. The ball is bouncing, bouncing, bouncing… Wet ball… Passing issues… Aw, hell, I’ll be a homey. Penn State 31, Moo U. 19. Take the over.
I’ll be back after the game with sparkling commentary, win or lose.
Share this:
Share this:
Discover more from The Nittany Turkey
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Big Al says
Well, two of Penn State’s three known weaknesses – inability to run between the tackles and inability to stop the pass without DL pressure – cost them the previous game. This week the third part of our weakness trifecta – unreliable field goal kicking – will join the other two weaknesses and lead to a loss.
Karma revealed her plan for this game in a bad dream last night. PSU leads 21-9 with 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, Moo U scores on a five play 85 yard drive, forces a three and out from our heroes, and scores again with 2 minutes left in the game, but they miss the 2 point conversion. McSorely runs a textbook 2 minute drill to reach the Moo U 15 yard line where the drive stalls. Davis duck hooks a 32 yard field goal attempt as time expires and Moo U wins 22-21.
Of course, I’ve been wrong on every prediction I’ve made this year. So, hopefully Karma was just pulling my chain, and PS wins by three touchdowns. The only thing I’m really sure about with Penn State football is that I will be nervous as hell if we’re leading by less than 14 points with 10 minutes to play..
The Nittany Turkey says
You gotta stop having those dreams, but I think they’re reality-based. Leading by 14 with 10 minutes to play — where have I seen that before? Can lightning strike twice in the same place? It is pure myth that it doesn’t.
Notre Dame scored 38 on them, Minnesota scored 27, and Northwestern scored 39. Although all of those have a better offensive line (as do the St. Mary Ignatius HS junior varsity), this gives a ray of hope that the gamblers seem to be buying into, as the spread is back to 9. Time for the passing game to shine, as I expect the usual on the ground.
Both teams are pissed off about last week’s losses. The bigger moper loses. The game is a must for any remote playoff hopes for PSU. Winning out combined with a couple of tOSU losses might get them to Indianapolis. Moo U. would love to be the spoiler for either PSU or tOSU. Hell, Sparty can still take the East.
—TNT
Joe says
Well the bad news is that the Land Grant trophy looks like it has “plaques” available along the one side for the results of about 80 games between these two Land Grant giants, the good news is that it looks like they are only on the one side! So believing that Franklin is a better motivator than Dantonio, I’m going to step out on the ledge and say the Lions bounce back faster than Sparty and keep that trophy for another year with a 34-14 victory. And unlike Al, I didn’t eat any chocolate before dreaming up this score and think Davis adds two FG’s to the point total.
On a side note, when I was a junior in HS our school district became part of a nine district merger that encompassed the entire west side of the Wyoming Valley in NE Pa and we became the Wyoming Valley West Spartans. The student body picked a uniform modeled specifically after MSU’s, except our colors were burgundy and gold instead of green and white, and included the identical Spartan logo on the helmet. This would have been in ’67 and the booster club somehow got Duffy Daugherty who was coming off back to back NC’s in ’65 & ’66 (remember the “Game of the Century” with ND) to speak at the unveiling of the uni’s to the student body. I remember him reminding everyone of a leprechaun but also a very pleasant person to be around! Ah memories!!
The Nittany Turkey says
Hmmm, so you had Sparty as a mascot and Florida State Seminoles colors? That combination is enough to give me some bad dreams, even without Al’s chocolate.
I do remember how Moo U. used to dominate us back in the Bubba Smith days of the mid-1960s.
How I wish someone would have stolen the Land Grant Trophy while it was last in East Lansing! That many game endorsement plates doesn’t give me any hope that I’ll live to see a replacement for this abomination. Of course now that Delany thinks we have rotating rivalries among Maryland, Moo, and Joisey, we need similar trophies for the other two in the rotation.
Got you for 34-14. I hope Davis shapes up as you think he will.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
So now, as I write this with a little over an hour to go before kickoff, the spread is back up to 10 with an o/u of 48. (Works out to 29-19, for those of you playing at home). “The Bear” on College GameDay took Moo U. and the points. I still don’t know whether this will be a blowout or a close one, so I’ll stick with my 31-19 prediction, and be happy to get out of East Lansing with a win and the monstrosity.
—TNT