Maryland Hosts PSU in Season Finale
The #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) seek their tenth win of the season, while the mighty Maryland Terrapins (4-7, 2-6) are looking forward to Christmas and New Year with the family. Maryland is coming off a humiliating 17-7 loss to #17 Moo U. in driving snow last week, while PSU slept through the second half with Nebraska but still wound up beating the Cornhuskers, 56-44.
Rivalries and Pseudo-Rivalries
Although Rivalry Weekend is always replete with thrills, chills, and playoff implications, this dud is flying low under the radar, escaping media attention and almost, but not quite, is an afterthought by this here turkey. Auburn vs. Alabama, Ohio State vs. Michigan, Clemson vs. South Carolina are all worth watching. The only purpose this PSU-UMD game does is reassert my premise that the Big Ten geniuses still look upon PSU, Moo U., Rutgers, and Maryland as step-children.
Ten Wins Isn’t Enough, Already?
Nope, not for Penn State fans. And don’t count your chickens before they hatch, Turkey!
Be that as it may, this is it, the fizzling end of a season that held great promise that was dashed at the hands of the three “U‘s”: tosU, moo U, and our psUgly offensive line. We watched hopes of a playoff berth and a Heisman for our star running back bite the dust after the Nittany Lions succumbed to a brief football illness contracted in Columbus and exacerbated in East Lansing. We found out the hard way that our unbridled, cupcake-fed optimism ignored the realities of problems with not only the offensive line but also the defensive line that became apparent as the season progressed. Moreover, we found that we had overestimated the wonderfulness of the Penn State defensive secondary, who let the likes of Tanner Lee and Stanley Morgan, Jr. torch them for 399 yards.
Yea, verily. Tenth ranking nationally might well be overreach, too. Perhaps the playoff committee is giving Penn State credit where it isn’t due — ranking by reputation, rather than reason. They’re supposed to be doing this scientifically, but I still see the potential for human error. We’d never admit it if the Nittany Lions were over-ranked, as it is always the other guy whose flaws are apparent to the consummate Sanguinarian.
But I digress. We’re here to talk about this ugly game.
What’s Up with Maryland?
What can I say about Maryland? Not much. Somehow, they managed to beat Minnesota (31-24) and Indiana (42-39), but that was about it. In the Big Ten, they rank next-to-last in scoring defense and third from the bottom in total defense. Offensively, they are fourth from the bottom in total offense, but their rushing offense is ranked fifth. Finally, the Terps have claimed sole ownership of that which used to perennially belong to Penn State: the bottom of the barrel in third-down conversions.
Maryland is also awful at stopping opponents on third-down, again ranking last in the conference. They’re also last in the conference in the increasingly irrelevant statistic of Time of Possession.
So, we get it, Turkey. Maryland can run a bit and add a soupçon of passing, but can sustain but few drives, and finally, they ain’t got no defense.
Who’s Who at QB?
Injuries and graduation have decimated the already dicey situation at quarterback for Maryland. Perry Hills is gone. The Terps have already lost his replacement, Tyrrell Pigrome, and more recently, Kasim Hill. Offensive coordinator Walt Bell built their offense around dual-threat quarterbacks, so the present third-string starter, sophomore Max Bortenschlager, who is more of a drop-back pocket passer, is a poor fit. They play a fourth-stringer, Ryan Brand, a walk-on, once in a while to change the pace. (From three-and-out to two-and-a-fumble, already?)
Bortenschlager is completing 51.3% of his passes. He’s 101-197 for 1,128 yards and 10 TDs with five INTs. He’s been sacked 26 times — Maryland is next-to-last in sacks against in the Big Ten.
Offensive Weapons, So to Speak
Nevertheless, if they can get the ball to wide receiver D.J. Moore, he can burn the Penn State secondary with his speed. He is the top ranked receiver in the Big Ten, with 72 receptions for 933 yards and eight touchdowns.
Ty Johnson, the junior running back for the Terps, is Maryland’s main running threat. He’s eighth among Big Ten rushers. Although he’ll fall short of last year’s 1,000-yard season, he’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns this year.
What about the Terps on Defense?
The Maryland defense has been consistently putrid against the run, and I’ve heard it said that their defensive line suuuuuuuuuuuuuucks! Their only hope in this game is to stop Saquon Barkley, which they won’t be able to do. My only question about Barkley is how much playing time he’ll get. While he’s already said that he’ll be playing in the bowl game, why play him in this dud?
Thith ‘n’ Thaaaaaat
You know it. I know it. Just in case, though, lemme say that Penn State head coach James Franklin spent eight seasons at College Park as an assistant coach on the Maryland football staff.
Anudda thing. The last time a Penn State team won 10 games in back-to-back seasons was 2008-2009.
Da Wedda
Looks good, feels good. Forecast is for a partly cloudy, 59° day. Seems like fine football weather to me.
The Bottom Line
That brings us to our fun spot of the week, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction. This turkey, who survived Thanksgiving, wishes to give thanks to all of those who have put up with my antics during the season. It’s a lot of fun having you folks as my audience.
Our gambling friends initiated the betting with the visiting Nittany Lions as three-touchdown favorites over Maryland. The gap has widened to 22 since then, with not a helluva lot of interest by the betting community. The over/under of 58 suggests a break-even score 40-18, with PSU on the winning end.
Pondering what could be the next-to-last outing as a Nittany Lion for Saquon Barkley against the next-to-last Maryland rushing defense, I think the talented running back will want to have a next-to-last chance to help his teammates. Whether the coaches see it that way or not is the big question. I think they’ll play him for the first half, anyway, and I think he’ll get 100 yards on the ground as a matter of personal pride, in spite of the offensive line.
If the Penn State defense does its job reasonably well, and by that, I mean sacking Bortenschlager four times, covering Moore, and stopping Johnson, it could be a very good day. On the other hand, if we see the defensive debacle that was the second half of the Nebraska game, the outcome will be similar. Perhaps the Nebraska game deflated some egos now that Penn State is no longer atop the scoring defense stats, and in sixth place, just behind Indiana in total defense.
Maryland has nothing at stake here. Whether they give a token effort or play for pride (and for Moore and Johnson, NFL visibility), we won’t know until Saturday. Too many unknowns for this old turkey, so I’ll just pull one out of my cloaca. Penn State 52, Maryland 24. Take the over.
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Joe says
Right before I started to write this, Pitt knocked off the Hurricanes of Miami 24-14, so this season continues to be one of the whackiest in recent memory and proves that being ranked No 2 this year was certainly the kiss of death for just about every team that found themselves in that slot.
However, we are not ranked No 2 at the moment so I don’t see us losing to the Terps on Saturday afternoon, for many of the reasons you so eloquently outlined above, but mostly ’cause it’s Maryland. I’m feeling like Barkley will run wild and CJF learned his lesson and will not be substituting for the starters so early this week, so I’m going to throw out a 56-14 final. Hard to believe we’ve blown through this season already and I just keep thinking what might have been if not for the brain fart in Columbus and the “14 hour” rain delay in “East Lansing” (sigh).
The Nittany Turkey says
I hope you had a happy Thanksgiving up there in the frozen north.
And I thought last season was crazy when Pitt beat Clemson. But you’re right, this season has been weird. Syracuse beating Clemson, Iowa State beating Oklahoma, now Ole Miss beating Mississippi State, Pitt beating Miami and USF leading undefeated UCF.
Yessir, that #2 jinx sure held this year. Doesn’t that mean that Clemson is now unofficially #2, so they should lose to the Gamecocks? So, then Oklahoma will slide up and get whacked by TCU in the conference title game. That’ll move Wisconsin up to #2, so tOSU can beat them in Indianapolis. Hahahahahhahahha… this extrapolation is hilarious. Kind of leaves us where we started: Alabama is for real and everyone else is a pretender.
Round and round she goes, and where she stops nobody knows.
I do hope that Franklin learned his lesson, but I could be hoping against hope. A big first-half lead will probably result in the same yanking of starters as last week. I’m still thinking we’ll see Barkley only in the first half, but wouldn’t it be cool if he got 200 yards, anyhow? Last year’s game redux? Not completely — there won’t be any late retaliation hits on Joey Julius.
The Bowl game this year could well wind up being right here in Orlando. Wouldn’t it be cool to play UCF here, my “other” alma mater? (I don’t know if that’s possible because I haven’t examined the byzantine bowl tie-ins yet). Many people around here are pissed off (of course) that UCF is undefeated (maybe — we’ll see today’s result) but dissed at #15 by the CFP committee. But the Gang of Five ain’t never gonna get no respect.
—TNT
Big Al says
Good to see that you survived yet another Thanksgiving.
Assuming UCF doesn’t dick trip against Memphis, I expect State and UCF to hold a track meet at the Homophobic Chikin Bowl in Hotlanta. The over/under for that spectacle should be in the triple digits. But at least State avoids playing in the Tainted Chicken Bowl this year. Next year might be a different story.
It’s hard to get excited about the Maryland game. State is 6 and 5 against the spread for the year and on a 3 game losing streak. So, reversion to the mean (and a mediocre secondary with a back-up safety) suggests that the Derps will cover and Bortenshlager will have his best passing game this year. My prediction: Penn State 45 Maryland 28.
The Nittany Turkey says
Another Thanksgiving and I am still here. Can’t beat that. I hope yours was even better!
My wishlist for the Big Ten end to the step-child lunacy calls for a decent treatment of homecoming and a decent end-of-year rivalry. This bullshit with Rutgers, Maryland, Moo U., and PSU needs to be shitcanned. Yeah, like Rutgers for Homecoming in November is going to draw out huge numbers of alumni, right? Homecoming needs to be in mid-October. The end-of-year rotating pseudo-rivalry concept is more bullshit. I would be happier if we could get back to the contrived Moo U. end-of-year rivalry game. This current scheduling debacle suuuuuuuuuuuuucks.
It would be cool to see that track meet between UCF and PSU. I hope it happens. It will be Scott Frost’s showcase, no doubt, to springboard him toward Florida or Nebraska. But yeah, I think it would be a shoot-out like the UCF-USF game (known around here as “The War on I-4”).
No excitement here, either, for this anticlimactic pseudo-rivalry game.
—TNT