Homecoming: Moo U. (3-2, 1-1) at #8 PSU (4-1, 1-1)
There’s never a dull moment in Penn State vs. Michigan State games. You never know what to expect. This year’s Homecoming clash features two combatants who started the season with great optimism, which for the Nittany Lions and the Spartans has been tempered by recent setbacks. In Moo U’s case, injuries have all but destroyed their running game, while the Nittany Lions have struggled with several aspects of their game.
Whence Cometh Both?
As you surely know, in their last outing the #8 Nittany Lions’ defense struggled in the money quarter, allowing a 96-yard touchdown drive by the #2 Buckeyes, which sealed the deal in a 27-26 loss in whited-out St. Joe Memorial Penndot Stadium at Beaver Field last week. A couple of bad coaching calls by James Franklin also pissed off this turkey. (I know a guy named Barry Walters who is still pissed off at St. Joe Paterno for a bad fourth down call in the 1967 Gator Bowl. This pique will not last that long quite that long, because neither Barry nor I will be around 50 more years, but I ain’t forgettin’ anytime soon!).
Spartans Suuuuuucked!
Moo U. is coming off a heartbreaking loss to 1-3 Northwestern, 29-19, in which it could generate only 96 yards rushing. (Pretty funny that number was twelve times the net rushing yards of their opponents, the aerial-only Wildcats). While the passing game was “not too bad”, with junior QB Brian Lewerke hitting 31-52 for 329 yards with one interception and one touchdown, the spartan Spartans were only 4-15 on third-down conversions. Their injury riddled offensive line allowed two sacks, four QB hurries, and six tackles for loss and was in the verge of facing penalties similar to that of the DUI Penalties in Florida. Michigan State ranks 10th out of 14 in the B1G in total offense and 13th in rushing offense. But, as there are slip and fall lawyers for hire, it was easy for the players to file a compensation for their injury and return to the game fit and fine. In case of heavy injuries that require a lot of money for the treatment, it is better to talk to the insurance company after an accident first with the help of the lawyers who will share their opinion on the possibilities and also the amount required, so that the money would be sanctioned from the government.
The Spartans have a serviceable defense, ranking fifth in the conference right behind Penn State. The standout defensive category for Moo U. is Interceptions, where they have 9 for 140 yards and a touchdown.
On special teams, Matt Coghlin, the sophomore place kicker, is a perfect 8-8 on field goals and 14-14 for PATs.
History Tells Us Nothing in This Series
Last year, the crazy, rain-delayed game saw the Nittany Lions come out flat and getting beat at the final gun. Coughlin kicked the winning field goal as time expired — seven hours after the game began — giving the Spartans a 27-24 victory in East Lansing and thankfully allowing them custody of the abominable Land Grant Trophy for a year. Brian Lewerke passed for 400 yards in that game.
The prior year, Penn State prevailed at St. Joe Memorial Stadium, 45-12, in a horribly crappy offensive performance by the visitors. Lewerke did not play that game due to a mid-season injury.
What of This One, Already?
Well, I’ll tellya. As the title of this article suggests, these Moo U. games are all over the map. Our PSU offensive line, which we thought was a great improvement, let us down under pressure from the elitists at tOSU. I would suspect that Moo U. will throw some similar defense at the Lions, which would mean Miles Sanders likely won’t be able to get umgetrakt.
So, we’re looking at an aerial game, if Franklin can properly adjust this “great” team to what Mark D’Antonio throws at him. Once again, the game will be carried on the broad shoulders of Trace McSorley and his receivers, who better make the easy catches as well as the tough ones. I don’t think the Penn State defense needs to worry much about the run by Moo U., so they can concentrate on pressuring Lewerke and covering his receivers. (He used 10 in the NWU game). That’s the big key to winning this one. And for the love of Pete, how about getting the PSU punting game back on track?
Lemons to Lemonade
I chose lemons as a theme for this week’s watch party. Last game we were dealt lemons; this week, we make lemonade. We will honor the Greek-Ass Spartans with lemon chicken, Greek corn bread, Greek salad, and ouzo lemonade.
Da Wedda
It promises to be a standard, crappy Pennsylvania Fall day at the Big Beave, but alumni are used to that. Looks like 51° for a high, with some morning rain following some frost in low spots. Sounds like reasonable football weather unless the rain is heavy. (If you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes and it will change. Or not.).
Da Bottom Line
To sum it all up, the Spartans aren’t as formidable as we thought they would be two weeks ago. They’re not an “elite” team. But the “great” Nittany Lions better stay great for this Super Bowl. The game might be a strange one, as Moo U. games typically are. Here we have a D’Antonio defense against a back-to-crapola offensive line and a primary receiving target who makes spectacular catches but drops as many as he catches — plus a coach with yellow puddles around his feet when making fourth quarter decisions, and that ain’t lemonade!
Time for the Nittany Turkey’s Official Turkey Poop Prediction, which comes straight from my cloaca and is as good as it smells. We look first toward the betting lines on the game, because money is what it is all about on so many levels. Current line favors Penn State by 13.5 points (and hasn’t budged since it opened there), with an over/under of 53.5 (which has dropped about three points). This suggests a Nittany Lion win to the tune of 34-20, but I’ll stick with what I pontificated to the local watch party group. Penn State 31, Moo U. 20. PSU doesn’t cover. Don’t bet the o/u, because this game tends to be too wacky — there’s never a dull moment!
I’ll be back after the game with a recap and a few mocking statements about the Land Grant Trophy.
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K. John says
This one is a tough one to call TNT. Too many uncertainties on Sparty’s side. By the end of the Northwestern game, Moo U was down six starters on offense (3 linemen, 1 receiver, fullback, running back) four key reserves (3 receivers, 2nd tight end), two on defense (starting cornerbacks) one on special teams (punter). That doesn’t count the walking wounded. I can’t recall ever seeing a team so banged up on one side of the ball. The fact that they are still in games says a lot about Brian Lewerke who I (and I am not alone) consider to be the best QB in the Big Ten and Felton Davis. Their offense is basically what we had in 2014 and 2015 where it was Hackenberg and DaeSean Hamilton/Chris Godwin.
The key to the game is defense, ours and theirs. I see no reason why they won’t use the same approach they used last year (which Ohio State mirrored last game with one key limitation) to devastating effect. Sparty will attempt to take away the run game with 5, sometimes 6 defenders while using two safeties over the top to limit the deep passing game. The key here is Ohio State has to drop linebackers into coverage to support the safeties essentially gifting Trace 5 to 7 yards a carry and a bunch of easy completions over the middle. From what I have seen, Michigan State won’t have to give up both. They will have the luxury of choosing like they did last year and it cost us 3 INTs. Unless they are on the field the entire game, I don’t see our offense getting going at all without Barkley to pull an extra defender even with backup corners in.
Defensively, we haven’t been able to stop anybody that ran right at the line. We are too small, too weak and too inexperienced. Appy State did it. Pitt did it. Illinois did. At worst, Appy State and Pitt’s lines are on par with Sparty’s injury crippled unit. I think they are going to run right at us LJ Scott or no and will have some success. The big one is going to be Lewerke. He is a lot like Trace in that he is an underrated slippery runner, but with a borderline NFL arm, something Trace lacks. If they can get the running game going, exploit a few of the holes Ohio State used, this game will go down to the last drive. If it does, my money is on Dantonio, Lewerke and the Spartan Defense over Franklin, McSorley and our Defense. I am going to hold off on a prediction for the time being until we see what Sparty’s injury situation is tomorrow.
The Nittany Turkey says
If LJ Scott doesn’t show up, he’s probably in jail for repeated traffic violations.
D’Antonio’s run defense is ranked #1 in FBS now, averaging 1.32 yds/rush and only four rushing touchdowns all year. (Of course, factor in NWU’s 8 net yards rushing). Regardless, predicting this game is a fool’s mission because it typically defies reason.
Of course, a lot of those old weird-outs happened when this was our pseudo-rivalry game at the end of the season. Snow was always a possibility, adding to the weirdness. However, last year proved to us that weather induced weirdness is not restricted to November.
—TNT
K. John says
Speaking of weather weirdness, I am glad you survived the unusually strong October hurricane. If all goes well, I’ll be making my way down the Turkey Roost for the second time this year in a couple of weeks.
While there is nothing in the forecast for Saturday, the conditions are ripe for some unpredictable nonsense to occur at any point this weekend.
The Nittany Turkey says
Come on down! We tend to have decent weather in mid-October, especially after a major storm clears out all the humidity. We didn’t get much more than some strong thunderstorms and gusty winds here, and only about an inch of rain. The Panhandle — well, my heart goes out to the people up there. Many have lost everything.
Believe it or not, I’m still working on the re-roof necessitated by Hurricane Irma whipping through here 13 months ago.
—TNT
K. John says
Going with Penn State 23, Michigan State 20. The game is even throughout. Not a lot of scoring unless of the turnovers come in droves.
The Nittany Turkey says
Got you for Farmer’s High 23, Michigan Agricultural 20.
How the hell can a defense be #1 against the run and #122 in passing yards allowed? I think that disparity provides a ray of hope for those of us who are looking for big numbers like my friend Jackstand down below. (I’m kind of in the middle). So, if D’Antonowicz shutz down the PSU run, forcing McSorley to go aerial, those damn receivers better catch. Hamler’s health is probably key to producing a touchdown or two. Johnson — well, CATCH THE DAMN BALL!
Other crap. Turnovers’ll killya. PSU has lost 6 this year; Moo U, 9. Penalties’ll killya. Moo has had 36 penalties for 320 yards; PSU, 30 for 276.
The gambling line hasn’t budged — still 13.5 with 53.5 o/u. No one knows what to make of this game, and I still say all bets are off!
Go State!
—TNT
Jackstand says
My optimistic projection is that the odds-makers are under the mark a bit. Two weeks of rest will give PSU a 48-17 win! The loser has to take home that trophy, right?
The Nittany Turkey says
The Land Grant (a)Trophy was designed by former Moo U. head coach George Perles. Therefore, it’s THEIR mess. I say Moo U. should take ownership of it permanently, display it in the trophy case in the barn, and paint it blue whenever Penn State wins.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
I think the odds makers were clueless, and so is the gambling community. That’s why the numbers haven’t budged since Monday. This game is anybody’s call, and few are willing to put their money where their mouths are. This is apparent in the predictions I’ve seen by the self-appointed media pundits. They are all over the map.
See you around 2:30. When life deals you lemons, make lemonade!
—TNT
Joe Tamashasky says
I think I will stop by for some lemon chicken and a Greek salad. Enjoy the food and don’t worry about the final score.
The Nittany Turkey says
I am not worried, but if you make the trip, show up at 2:30.
—TNT