#18 Iowa vs #17 Penn State
Kirk Ferentz is a helluva good coach, but he needs to be on his game if he expects to leave St. Joe Memorial-Penndot Stadium at Beaver Field with a win on Saturday. The #18 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-1, 3-1) will try to show the #17 Nittany Lions (5-2, 2-2) some of their signature defense and improving offense on what promises to be a crappy, chilly, sloppy day.
At our local game celebration in The Cave, which has been renamed “The Pigpen” for this game, we’ll be serving spare ribs and corn-on-the-cob to honor our opponents, who represent a state famous for pigs, corn, floods, and good defense. Whether we serve up lemonade or moldy lemons depends on how Penn State can attack that vaunted defense.
Where They Been
The Hawkeyes are coming off a shutout win over our arch-rival-of-the-year, Maryland. Defensive domination was the name of that tune. The Terps wound up with only 115 total yards and seven first downs in that game. “Increasingly Irrelevant” time of possession was a ridiculous 40:55 to 19:05. The Hawkeyes ran 76 plays from scrimmage to Maryland’s 39. Iowa forced two turnovers as well.
Meanwhile, on offense, Iowa was racking up 224 rushing yards on 52 carries. Sophomore RB Ivory Kelly-Martin scampered for 98, and sophomore Mekhi Sargent ate up 54. To say that Iowa is a running team is to state the obvious. They tend to run at their opponents’ strength until they wear them out. Didn’t take all that much with Maryland.
Not a Passing Team
Although they’re by no stretch of the imagination what you would call a passing team, Junior QB Nate Stanley has improved his numbers this year to a 60.7% completion rate. He’s thrown for 1559 yards thus far with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. His offensive line protects him well — he’s been sacked only five times this year. And, curses — he throws a lot to tight ends, which Penn State’s defense are loath to cover. Iowa ranks 11th in the FBS in third-down conversions, so those tight ends come in handy.
Dee-fence
The Iowa defense is formidable. In the top division of college football, they rank #5 in scoring defense, #2 in rushing defense, and #18 in passing yards allowed.
The Penn State defense must be up to the task because you can be sure they’ll be on the field a lot. Not that Iowa has a such a formidable offense, but if you put a persistent offense up against a withering defense, it’ll score points. In this case, with a suspect Nittany Lions defense (ranking #74 against the run, giving up over 165 rushing yards per game), the PSU offense has to sustain drives to give the defense a blow. Will they?
Takin’ It to da Street
The big stat to look at here is third down conversions. Penn State ranks 92 out of 129 teams in the FBS in that category, converting a paltry 36.8% of third downs — which happens to be the exact percentage that Iowa’s defense allows. In fourth down conversions, PSU is even worse — ranking 108th, with a 40% conversion rate. We all know that some boneheaded fourth down coaching has something to do with that. Bad news bears be aware — Iowa has not allowed a fourth down conversion yet this year!
Badger Badger Badger
For a key to how to beat Iowa, look at their 28-17 home defeat at the hands of Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes’ only loss this year. First off, Badger stud running back Jonathan Taylor had 113 yards rushing. But it was the fullback, Alec Ingold who ran for a 33-yard score with 22 seconds left to seal the deal for Wisconsin. Prior to that, Wisconsin employed an 88-yard, 10 play drive to overcome a 17-14 deficit. The Badgers took care of the ball, although they had 8 penalties for 68 yards to Iowa’s single 5-yarder. The big deal, though, was in “increasingly irrelevant” TOP, where Wisconsin led 35:13 to 24:47. Annnnndddd… the Badgers converted seven of fourteen third downs against a stingy Iowa defense.
Iowa’s ball handling in that game was sloppy, coughing up two fumbles and an interception. So, with cold, rainy weather in the Big Beave, we can see all obstacles in our way — keep the defense off the field and take care of the ball. Simply stated, but a pretty tall order, methinks.
Finally, PSU special teams cannot afford to make costly mistakes. This game will likely come down to a field goal. Penn State’s freshman kicker Jake Pinegar must focus on getting some elevation on his kicks, and getting them through that 18½ foot gap. Clanking one off the upright (or the crossbar) in this game could be fatal.
Those of you who might be worried about Juwan Johnson’s head or his ankle or whatever, he’ll be there dropping passes in the rain.
da Wedda
I told you crappy, chilly, and sloppy. I wasn’t shitting you. We’re looking at a high of 43 with periods of rain on Saturday. That’s got to affect play, and it’s got to favor Iowa’s run-oriented game.
da Bottom Line
So, where are we going with all this? To the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, forsooth! This is another tough one, man. I don’t know who is going to win, but I think we’re going to see a punishing game, in the rain, in the cold, in the Big Beave. Thing is, lose this one and a Toilet Bowl bid is a 50-50 proposition. In this forthcoming tough three-game stretch, any lapse will be disastrous. Will the team psyche reflect the disappointment of this season? Do they have anything to play for, with two conference losses? Can James Franklin motivate them to play like a great-but-not-elite team, like each remaining game is their Super Bowl?
Having watched them the past three outings, I get this certain queasy feeling.
The gambling line on this game is presently favoring Penn State by 6½ points, with an over/under of 51½. (I remember one Iowa game from the St. Joe era where if the o/u had been 12, you would have won with the under). Anyhow, if you do a little simple math, you will glean that the betting suggests a 28-23 PSU victory. In any case, I’m thinking this one should come down to a fourth quarter field goal, but I’m uncertain which team will win. For grins, I’ll go with the homies. Penn State 27, Iowa 24. I think the over/under is just about right, but my inclination based on some flimsy assumptions dating back to the Paterno years is to go with the under.
I’ll be back after the game to make excuses for why my prediction failed to materialize.
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Jackstand says
There’s plenty of reason for trepidation, but I agree with the forth quarter field goal argument. Put me down for PSU at 27-24 as well.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks, Mike. You’re always positive and optimistic about this wayward ship of State. See you Saturday. Soooooooooooooooooieeeeeee!
—TNT
Hamilton says
When the game has ended I think the PSU (increasingly disinterested) fan base will sadly say “there is no joy in Mudville…young Trace(y) has struck out” Sloppy conditions and receivers who can’t catch passes even on a clear day; a swiss cheese defense equipped with turnstile like linebackers and db’s; and what sounds like a staunch and determined defensive oriented opponent will put the weight of the game on McSorely’s shoulders. He can’t do it all…he’s already shown us that. So I think the upside is that the PSU coaching staff won’t even get a chance to screw up this game…because it won’t be close enough at the end to matter. No idea what the score will be…Would be surprised if both teams score 40 points combined…but our kitties will end up on the short end of that by 10 points. Sorry…watching pre-market news on FBN and it’s just got me in a funk
The Nittany Turkey says
I’ve got to agree with your characterization of the fair weather, increasingly disinterested fan base running further afoul in the muck and mire of this slopfest. While I’m still not confident in the game’s eventual outcome, I am reasonably certain we’ll see enough stupidity and carelessness, amplified by the weather, to cause more fans to write off the season.
As you stated, it appears that the offense is concentrated in McSorley. He’s the guy who can win games, so the retarded offensive brain trust can’t get creative enough to lessen the load on Trace (except maybe when the game is on the line with Ohio State, but I digress). Although McSorley has said he’ll carry whatever load he’s called on to carry, it’s got to wear on him physically and emotionally. At this stage of the season, with three punishing games ahead, I’m worried about him.
I just took a look at what K. John wrote below. I think he must have been watching the pre-market news, too.
—TNT
K. John says
Looking back at the season, our key weaknesses defensively are power concepts in the running game, screens and underneath passing to tight ends and outlet receivers. We have had issues in varying degrees since game one. Unfortunately, while Iowa does not rely on the power running game as much as in the past, it is still a team strength along with screens and underneath passing with a pro-style QB with legit NFL potential. These are major problems. Knowing they can’t hold out for an entire game, I would expect Pry to gamble heavily early on with a mix of blitzes to contain the running game, get sacks and hopefully force some turnovers. My gut tells me it works for a half but that its it. If we are down at the half, we lose going away. If we are up, we have a chance.
Our offense is sadly exactly what I expected. It is crystal clear that Barkley and Gesicki have carried the offense with help from Hamilton and Godwin. With those players gone, the master mind in Mississippi, a questionable replacement, the offense has struggled. The passing game is a major liability, and it isn’t just the drops. They are a big part of the problem but no where near the biggest. The deep passing game is non-existent. USC proved that could be taken away before all the departures. Look at how opposing defenses have played us for much of the year. Man coverage, even from zone teams. one safety in the deep third, another floating between the deep and middle third which is a look Michigan State gave last year on top of the approach USC used. This has severely limited the 15 to 20 yard pass which is the best part of Trace’s game. To his credit, Rahne has stopped running routes that far likely out of fear of turning Trace into an interception machine. This leaves a lot of short throws where Trace’s precision is frequently an issue. It has contributed to some drops and two turnovers this year. The manner in which defenses have hindered the passing game is easily reproducible by any team with a decent secondary and allows for 6 or 7 defenders or as few as 5 depending on the quality of the front seven (see Michigan State) to be dedicated to containing the running game.
Iowa’s D is very much a less aggressive version of the Spartan defense who had no trouble with our offense in its current form. Iowa has a better secondary, but a weaker D-line. Linebackers are on par. Looking at how easily they dispatched Maryland’s RPO and zone read plays (different from ours but similar enough) I am not expecting the offense to do much without turnovers. Furthermore, unlike the Iowa offense, we can’t afford to play it safe in the conditions the game is likely to be played in.
We go in, we forced an early turnover or two allowing the game to stay competitive for the first half. In the second half, we gown by two scores and Franklin either turtles and plays to not get blown out or they play to come back and the game gets out of hand with turnovers. My guess is on the later.
Iowa 47
Penn State 17
The Nittany Turkey says
So it’s come to that? A high-scoring blowout by Iowa? The same Iowa that was able to score only 23 points on Maryland? (OK, I’ll assume when Ferentz got to 23 in the third quarter and saw that the defense had paralyzed the Terps, he played sphincterball until the clock ran out). Well, yeah, I suppose it is possible, inasmuch as the Hawkeyes put 48 points on the board against Minnesota and 42 against Indiana, but is the PSU defense really that bad?
If the turnovers get out of hand, I’ll grant you 47 is not out of the question.
I am worried about scoring points on Iowa. They have the wherewithal to neutralize McSorley, and they just shut out Maryland, our peers.
Got you for 47-17, Hawkeyes.
—TNT
K. John says
I don’t expect the Iowa offense to be that good nor do I expect our defense to be that bad. What I expect is a close game through three (something like 27-17) and then a turnover fueled route where Iowa gets handed multiple short fields in the fourth quarter. Margin of defeat will be dictated by the degree to which the team quits (see Illinois or Pitt) in the fourth. A pretty standard contest where the score is not as close as the game.
Big Al says
Barring turnovers and defensive scores, this game will be low scoring. Iowa’s offense doesn’t have any home run threats and the Kitties should be able to pack the box and force a lot of punts. On the other hand, Iowa’s defense will probably do what they did last year and force State to execute double digit drives to score – figuring (probably correctly) that our offense will somehow screw up before getting any points.
The Kitties have better skill position players than Iowa, but Iowa’s O line is better than State’s D line and their D line is better than our O line. Line play usually decides the winner. So, my prediction is Iowa 17 Penn State 10. And I won’t be surprised if the game is scoreless at half time.
The Nittany Turkey says
Got you for 17-10 Hawkeyes.
Man, this is depressing. I wish we could count on someone other than McSorley to contribute to a win, but we cannot. I suspect Sanders will be held to under 70 yards.
“Balance will be the focus of this week. And if these guys focus this upcoming week like they did to get ready for Maryland then there’s nothing they can’t figure out,” coach Kirk Ferentz said.
Yeah, Iowa would seem to be on the upswing. Penn State — well — they haven’t learned much as the season has progressed. I genuinely fear the potential for 0-3 the next three games.
So, the nor’easter could only make it worse!
—TNT
psudrozz says
McSorely has no help from his line and most receivers cant catch the ball. Iowa comes in to avenge last year’s loss at home.
Iowa 24
PSU 13
The Nittany Turkey says
Ouch! I see a trend here.
Got you for 24-13 Hawkeyes, and the under.
—TNT