The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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Home 2018 Archives for October 2018

Archives for October 2018

Can We At Least Beat Indiana?

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#18 Penn State vs. Indiana

Indiana HoosiersAfter close home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, both of which involved defensive breakdowns and poor play calling late in the final quarter, one has to wonder about the team psyche as the Nittany Lions travel to Indiana. #18 Penn State (4-2, 1-2) faces traditional Big Ten bottom feeder Indiana (4-3, 1-3) in what could be a trap game before the Lions take on Murderer’s Row: Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin, in consecutive weeks.

Take Care of Business, Boys!

Bad attitudes and sloppiness could conspire to do the unthinkable. A loss to Indiana would sink the season for Penn State. Looking past this game, they can anticipate at least two more losses (to Iowa and Michigan). Only the Rutgers game is anything close to a guaranteed victory for State, if there is such a thing.

So, PSU must absolutely handle the Indiana Hoosiers! I exaggerated a bit when I called them bottom-feeders. I would place Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Rutgers at the very bottom of the Big Ten. Indiana has a chance to become bowl eligible. They only need two wins to get there, with remaining games being PSU, Minnesota, Maryland, Michigan, and Purdue. They have every incentive to want to win this game on their home turf.

So, What’s the Deal with Indiana?

The Hoosiers rank 9th in rushing in the Big Ten, averaging 4.1 ypc. So, you could say they’re a passing team, ranking #4 in that category, behind tOSU, Purdue, and Northwestern. Passing is the bailiwick of sophomore QB Peyton Ramsey, whose completion rate is a sparkling 68% (10th nationally), but his passing has been good for only 6.42 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. But with that kind of passing, you would expect that they do relatively well with third down conversions, which they do, 42.7%. (Penn State sucks worse — 37.5%).

On defense, Indiana is slightly suckier than PSU against the run, ranking 67th nationally. Against the pass, they’re 71st in passing yards allowed.

They get penalized a lot and they can cough up the ball. So given these two teams’ history in that area, this could be another sloppy game.

Last Outing

In the last game against Iowa, the Hawkeyes never trailed, eventually blowing out the Hoosiers in Bloomington, 42-16.

In that game, Indiana had only 67 yards rushing. Total yards were 479 to 330 in favor of the visitors. Both teams were heavily penalized. Indiana had 10 for 99 yards. They also were intercepted twice.

Da Wedda

Fall has fung (rhymes with spring has sprung), and the high will be 59 on a mostly sunny day.

Da Bottom Line

Here we go with the always Wong, never white Official Turkey Poop Prognostication. I’ll make this one short and sweet, although it might constitute wishful thinking. We gotta win this one, boys and girls. If you aren’t too tired from watching the Michigan – Moo U. game, watch this one. It won’t be too exciting, but we might just win for a change.

Current odds favor Penn State by 14.5 with an over/under of 61. Remember that PSU was favored over Moo U. by two touchdowns and you know what happened there. But Indiana is not Moo U. Interpreting the line gives up a formulaic approximation of a 38-23 outcome. Unless the team psyche is really in the dumpster, I think Indiana will shoot itself in the foot. Penn State won’t be elite or great, but they’ll sloppily win this super bowl, 42-24, and you should take the over.

I’ll be back after the game with some celebratory comments.

Lemons

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Michigan State 21, Penn State 17

It was yet another game where the Nittany Lions had the lead deep in the final quarter but couldn’t close it out. Yea, verily, it was yet another game with a defensive breakdown at a crucial game juncture. For icing on the cake, it was yet another game with special teams breakdowns. All these conspired with poor offensive point production to produce yet another heartbreaking, close loss. Michigan State prevailed 21-17 before a striped-out Homecoming six-figure crowd at St. Joe Memorial-Penndot Stadium at Beaver.

This fourth quarter give-up, coupled with sloppy play and bad play calling, is becoming standard practice for Penn State.

Although Miles Sanders had a breakout day after having been shut down by tOSU two weeks ago, the Lions could produce only 17 points, too few for this shaky defense to protect. In spite of gaining 397 total yards, Penn State was thwarted by an opportunistic Moo U. defense that was there when it needed to be, allowing PSU only three third-down conversions in fourteen tries and forcing two turnovers. Penn State’s only fourth-down attempt at a crucial juncture was also predictably thwarted by the Spartans.

Moo U. lacked the services of their stud running back LJ Scott, and they also have been riddled by injuries on the offensive line. Yet the Nittany Lion defense could not stop them. And when Michigan State had to resort to a trick play, the special teams guys could not stop them.

Balls to the Wall vs. Ballsless

Mark D’Antonio coached his team to play balls-to-the-wall, go-for-broke football. It worked. On the other sideline, James Franklin had no answers. A fake punt early caught the defense sleeping. Franklin said they practiced it, but didn’t execute. Later, a fake field goal didn’t work. D’Antonio was willing to throw everything at PSU but the kitchen sink.

Decreasing Relevance

In what one pseudo-sports journalist described last year as an “increasingly irrelevant statistic”, Moo U. dominated time of possession 34:12 to 25:48. It makes sense that an inherently shaky Penn State defense was tired in the fourth quarter — too tired for the team’s best defensive back to make a game winning interception that would have stopped Brian Lewerke’s final drive for the lead.

Sloppiness

Turnovers’ll kill ya. PSU had two. Penalties’ll kill ya. PSU had six versus Moo U’s three. Crappy special teams’ll kill ya. PSU allowed one huge fourth down conversion on a fake punt and PSU’s freshman kicker Jake Pinegar doinked one off the goal post from 37 yards. Crappy defense’ll kill ya. PSU’s defense gave up 418 yards, including yet another long desperation touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter: 76 yards on 8 plays in one minute. Stupid coaching’ll kill ya. Yeah, I mean that dumbass fourth down call.

The Nittany Lions died a thousand deaths in this game.

The offense has some unexpected success with the running game, but Trace McSorley managed only 192 yards passing. That was ass-backward, given that coming into the game the Moo U. rush defense was #1 nationally and its pass defense gave up enough yards to be ranked #122.

Franklin Wasn’t Talking about Great Teams

In his post-game comments, James Franklin avoided talking about PSU being a great team and being beaten by an elite team. He got right down to basics: poor offensive execution, poor defensive execution, and poor special teams execution. Three lemons. No lemonade to be seen anywhere. Yet another winnable “Super Bowl” squandered.

After the game, Mark D’Antonio smiled and his face didn’t break as expected. His underpowered team had pulled off a top-ten upset.

Penn State dropped to #18 in the AP poll. Moo U. is at #22, poised to play spoiler for Ohio State, Michigan, or both.

Predictor of the Week

K. John was once again our winning predictor, although we had very few entries this week. I guess shock had set in after the OSU loss. K. John predicted a PSU win 23-20, but in spite of picking the wrong winner he felt it would be close because the two teams were pretty evenly matched. He nailed the victory margin, too.

On to Indiana

Yeah, and they better not be pouting for the Hoosiers or there could be some nasty surprises awaiting them. After Indiana, there’s that stretch we thought might have a couple of little hurdles to jump over. Well, I was thinking that at the beginning of the season. Now, after half the season is over, those hurdles are looking like Mt. Everest.

#19 Iowa, #6 Michigan (in da Big House), and #23 Wisconsin, followed by a bye week with Rutgers, are who lie ahead. Are we still speculating that this team could finish the regular season 10-2? Hell, even my 9-3 prognostication looks shaky at this point.

I’ll be back during the week with a few choice comments about the forthcoming trip to Hoosierville.

Never a Dull Moment

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Homecoming: Moo U. (3-2, 1-1) at #8 PSU (4-1, 1-1)

Land Grant Trophy
Land Grant Trophy

There’s never a dull moment in Penn State vs. Michigan State games. You never know what to expect. This year’s Homecoming clash features two combatants who started the season with great optimism, which for the Nittany Lions and the Spartans has been tempered by recent setbacks. In Moo U’s case, injuries have all but destroyed their running game, while the Nittany Lions have struggled with several aspects of their game.

Whence Cometh Both?

As you surely know, in their last outing the #8 Nittany Lions’ defense struggled in the money quarter, allowing a 96-yard touchdown drive by the  #2 Buckeyes, which sealed the deal in a 27-26 loss in whited-out St. Joe Memorial Penndot Stadium at Beaver Field last week. A couple of bad coaching calls by James Franklin also pissed off this turkey. (I know a guy named Barry Walters who is still pissed off at St. Joe Paterno for a bad fourth down call in the 1967 Gator Bowl. This pique will not last that long quite that long, because neither Barry nor I will be around 50 more years, but I ain’t forgettin’ anytime soon!).

Spartans Suuuuuucked!

Moo U. is coming off a heartbreaking loss to 1-3 Northwestern, 29-19, in which it could generate only 96 yards rushing. (Pretty funny that number was twelve times the net rushing yards of their opponents, the aerial-only Wildcats). While the passing game was “not too bad”, with junior QB Brian Lewerke hitting 31-52 for 329 yards with one interception and one touchdown, the spartan Spartans were only 4-15 on third-down conversions. Their injury riddled offensive line allowed two sacks, four QB hurries, and six tackles for loss and was in the verge of facing penalties similar to that of the DUI Penalties in Florida. Michigan State ranks 10th out of 14 in the B1G in total offense and 13th in rushing offense. But, as there are slip and fall lawyers for hire, it was easy for the players to file a compensation for their injury and return to the game fit and fine. In case of heavy injuries that require a lot of money for the treatment, it is better to talk to the insurance company after an accident first with the help of the lawyers who will share their opinion on the possibilities and also the amount required, so that the money would be sanctioned from the government.

The Spartans have a serviceable defense, ranking fifth in the conference right behind Penn State. The standout defensive category for Moo U. is Interceptions, where they have 9 for 140 yards and a touchdown.

On special teams, Matt Coghlin, the sophomore place kicker, is a perfect 8-8 on field goals and 14-14 for PATs.

History Tells Us Nothing in This Series

Last year, the crazy, rain-delayed game saw the Nittany Lions come out flat and getting beat at the final gun. Coughlin kicked the winning field goal as time expired — seven hours after the game began — giving the Spartans a 27-24 victory in East Lansing and thankfully allowing them custody of the abominable Land Grant Trophy for a year. Brian Lewerke passed for 400 yards in that game.

The prior year, Penn State prevailed at St. Joe Memorial Stadium, 45-12, in a horribly crappy offensive performance by the visitors. Lewerke did not play that game due to a mid-season injury.

What of This One, Already?

Well, I’ll tellya. As the title of this article suggests, these Moo U. games are all over the map. Our PSU offensive line, which we thought was a great improvement, let us down under pressure from the elitists at tOSU. I would suspect that Moo U. will throw some similar defense at the Lions, which would mean Miles Sanders likely won’t be able to get umgetrakt.

So, we’re looking at an aerial game, if Franklin can properly adjust this “great” team to what Mark D’Antonio throws at him. Once again, the game will be carried on the broad shoulders of Trace McSorley and his receivers, who better make the easy catches as well as the tough ones. I don’t think the Penn State defense needs to worry much about the run by Moo U., so they can concentrate on pressuring Lewerke and covering his receivers. (He used 10 in the NWU game). That’s the big key to winning this one. And for the love of Pete, how about getting the PSU punting game back on track?

Lemons to Lemonade

I chose lemons as a theme for this week’s watch party. Last game we were dealt lemons; this week, we make lemonade. We will honor the Greek-Ass Spartans with lemon chicken, Greek corn bread, Greek salad, and ouzo lemonade.

Da Wedda

It promises to be a standard, crappy Pennsylvania Fall day at the Big Beave, but alumni are used to that. Looks like 51° for a high, with some morning rain following some frost in low spots. Sounds like reasonable football weather unless the rain is heavy. (If you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes and it will change. Or not.).

Da Bottom Line

To sum it all up, the Spartans aren’t as formidable as we thought they would be two weeks ago. They’re not an “elite” team. But the “great” Nittany Lions better stay great for this Super Bowl. The game might be a strange one, as Moo U. games typically are. Here we have a D’Antonio defense against a back-to-crapola offensive line and a primary receiving target who makes spectacular catches but drops as many as he catches — plus a coach with yellow puddles around his feet when making fourth quarter decisions, and that ain’t lemonade!

Time for the Nittany Turkey’s Official Turkey Poop Prediction, which comes straight from my cloaca and is as good as it smells. We look first toward the betting lines on the game, because money is what it is all about on so many levels. Current line favors Penn State by 13.5 points (and hasn’t budged since it opened there), with an over/under of 53.5 (which has dropped about three points). This suggests a Nittany Lion win to the tune of 34-20, but I’ll stick with what I pontificated to the local watch party group. Penn State 31, Moo U. 20. PSU doesn’t cover. Don’t bet the o/u, because this game tends to be too wacky — there’s never a dull moment!

I’ll be back after the game with a recap and a few mocking statements about the Land Grant Trophy.