#17 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 1-1) host #10 Nittany Lions (5-0, 2-0)
Let’s talk about Jonathan Sutherland’s hair, shall we?
No, let’s not. We need to stop wasting time on hair and start thinking about going 1-0 this week. Iowa, Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. And guess what? Iowa.
I’d rather talk about what happens on the football field when these two teams get together. ????? ??? ?????? Who can forget the 6-4 classic in 2004? You can’t, because I won’t let you. Read about it here.
Last time out, Iowa played defense against
The SDR Will Arrive On Schedule
The initials SDR stand for Sanguinarian Day of Reckoning. After five games, we’ve finally reached the point in the season where a defining performance will be necessary. No more cupcakes (until we get to Rutgers, who should just forfeit the rest of their games and give us all a break).
Saturday, October 12, Kinnick Stadium. Circle this date on your calendar, O Mighty Sanguinarian. For it is then that ye shall face The Reckoning. And yea, though ye goest placidly amid the noise and the haste, ye shall knowest by
In other words, this is it. I’ll quote from the Book of Loggins: Make no mistake who you are — your waiting is over. Are you a man or a mouse? Win here, and you’ve shown me something. ???? ???? ??? ????? (Not enough to ensure that PSU will represent the B10 in the FBS playoffs, as some Sanguinarians will think, but you’ve gained my respect and you’ll be alive until the next SDR). Lose and I’m sending you to the southern border to build the wall.
Thing is, not only I but everyone else is basing this circle-the-calendar extravaganza on Iowa’s defense. Well, that’s because they have no offense. However, they can easily look at the Purdue “tape”* and figure out how to take away lots of Penn State’s supposed offensive juggernaut potential. Jug or not?
Nate Stanley Works Hard
Iowa fans knock their 6’4″ 243 lb senior quarterback Nate Stanley for lots of simplistic, fans-know-best reasons, but no one is saying he doesn’t work hard at his craft. Hawkeye boosters think he’s inaccurate, he makes some really bad throws per game, his numbers are deficient, and he’s not a factor in big games.
On the other hand, he is a hard-working team leader. He even garnered a compliment from Peyton Manning after attending the eponymous Manning Passing Academy, praising Stanley for his attention to detail and work ethic.
However, is his offensive line capable of giving him time to throw the ball, you ask? In the Michigan
His stats to date are 99-160 for 1225 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs.
Solid Running Game — Or Not?
Mekhi Sargent, a 5’9″ 212 lb Junior, is the feature back to watch, although his numbers took a hit in the Michigan game, in which he averaged 1.7
Going into the Michigan game, the geniuses thought Iowa had a competent running game. However, in that game, they were able to generate one friggin’ net yard rushing! So, what does that mean? That means “if you’re Penn State”, you follow Michigan’s formula of shutting down the Hawkeyes’ running game to make Nate
Defense
As with all Iowa teams dating back to the Hayden Fry era, a loooooooooong time ago, defense is sound. They held Michigan to 10 points and 267 total yards in last week’s pitchers’ duel, a game in which they dominated “increasingly irrelevant” time of possession 34 to 26 minutes. However, Nate’s three interceptions and one lost fumble frustrated their attempt to throttle Big Blue. The Hawkeyes allowed 120 yards rushing on 33 carries, so running Noah Cain up the gut might just be what the doctor ordered to soften them up.
Da Wedda
Now that we’re solidly into autumn, we’re getting some real Midwestern football weather. It will be sunny with a forecast daytime high of 54°, dipping to a low of 36°. The wind will be an issue, with a cold front just having buzzed through — winds from the WSW at 19 mph. Some sloppy passing and kicking could result.
Da Bottom Line
Well, you might think a replay of the 2017 game is in the offing, like when Trace McSorley had to come back with a miraculous winning drive capped by a desperation pass to Juwan Johnson in the final seconds to snatch victory from the jaws of de
Seems like the oddsmakers are thinking that way, too. The gambling public now favors Penn State by 3.5 points on the
I’ll be back with a recap of this low-scoring SDR Bowl, you mark my words!
*Why is it that we have no replacement for “tape” in our vocabulary to describe watching recordings of past events? Coaches still speak of watching “films” or “tapes” or “footage”, but those forms of media haven’t been used for coaching analysis for eons. Why can’t they just say something like, “We’ll have to analyze the video…”, or some such bullshit? Think about it.
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K. John says
Personally, I am not too confident in our chances Saturday for three reasons.
Iowa is battle tested. We are not. They opened with a win against Miami (Oh), who just knocked off the Buffalo Bulls in solid fashion. The former Redskins are now 2 and 3 but their losses are to Iowa, Ohio State and Cincinnati who just gave UCF their 2nd loss. They also knocked of Iowa State whose other loss is to the 4-0 (Matt Ruhle coached) Baylor Bears. They lost to Michigan who got stomped by Wisconsin but I kind of think that game was more of an eye opening outlier than a true indicator of their worth.
As noted on the overly positive bordering on insane positivity, Black Shoes Diary, Iowa runs a defense (something I have noted having watched a couple Iowa games) that is unlike the defenses of old. Can Ricky Rahne decipher and outsmart the Hawkeyes D on their own turf? I am not confident at all. What we have seen so far is a run of the mill JoeMo game plan. Nothing special. No nuance. On top of that, last year when Ricky has needed to do something more than steer the ship JoeMo built, he failed. Sometimes miserably.
While definitely strong, our defense has yet to truly succeed against a real offense. Iowa’s offense isn’t terribly strong but does present a challenge unlike what we have seen from our previous opponents. A true pro-style passing game. Jan Johnson, you are officially on the clock. I still have nightmares of watching Jan Johnson’s predecessor, a similarly talented former walkon Josh Hull get exploited in the passing game early and often. Michigan notched a bunch of sacks but their defense is more than willing to sell out to get sacks. Ours does not have a similar attitude.
I pegged this one as a loss during the pre-season, and while I like our team more than I did then, I am still picking a loss which will likely be the first of three straight. Iowa 17, Penn State 10.
psudrozz says
Franklin 0-6 on the road against ranked* teams (*non bowl/conference championship).
Gambling advice: if u take anything, stay with iowa and the points.
Big Al says
The only Iowa game I’ve seen this year is Michigan. And that game demonstrated that the Jimmies and Joes will usually beat the X and Os. Iowa was way more sophisticated on both defense and offense than Michigan (and Penn State for that matter). On offense, they ran various spread, I , and two back formations. And on defense they used both zone and man coverage and employed a variety of blitzes.
But it didn’t matter against Michigan, because, except for maybe 5 draft level players, Iowa is primarily a bunch of slow 2 star athletes. The danger for Penn State is that they can trick Clifford into throwing interceptions and get our linebackers and safeties to make the wrong reads on crossing routes or screen passes. Stanley is quite similar to Hackenberg – strong arm, but wildly inaccurate and about as mobile as a statue. Their running backs are pretty ordinary and their only home run threat on offense seems to be one wide receiver (#89).
Ultimately, the Kitties fate in this game will be determined by the number of physical and mental mistakes the players make (as well as the number of mental mistakes the coaching staff makes. ) I’m sure that number will be greater than zero, but I’m not convinced it will be enough to lose. I’m only certain of two things -1) Iowa will score more points than other team State has played so far this year, and 2) the game will be decided by one score. But I’ll make a wild guess and predict a final score of Penn State 19 (2 touchdowns 1 for two on field goal attempts and a safety) and Iowa 17. Take the under and avoid picking a team.
In any case, this will NOT be a re-incarnation of the legendary 6-4 game That’s going to have to wait until the following Saturday.
K. John says
In the age of the spread, I don’t buy the Jimmie and Joe argument when it comes to top tier teams. Recruiting stars are still more guesswork than anything, the rest is mostly bias in one form or another. Exposure is the biggest driver in recruiting rankings. Regardless of what his initial ranking is, if Bama, Ohio State, Georgia or Clemson offers a kid, he will be rated as a four star player the next day regardless if any of the recruiting services have seen him play.
As for Iowa, they really gave this game away. They should have been playing with the lead early but turnovers kill yeah, stupid turnovers are even worse. Stanley threw three picks, all three in field goal range leaving points off the board in a game without a lot of them. The first pick was a stupid throw into double coverage Stanley should have recognized. The pressure didn’t get to him. He just made a stupid decision. The second pick was on the receiver who showed poor technique allowing the UM DB (who shall not be named) to get ahead of him turning what would have likely been a completion inside the 5 or a TD into a turnover. The third INT was thrown behind the receiver and batted into the air. Not a bad decision but a poorly thrown ball.
The Nittany Turkey says
AS tells me she’s going with Iowa, too. The spread is down to three points as I write this. Between all you doubters and the gambling public, y’all’s makin’ me look like a friggin’ Sanguinarian!
—TNT
Jenny says
Yes, I’m going with Iowa. 20-17. In overtime.