Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10
Like chicken soup, I don’t know whether this game portends well for the season, but it couldn’t hoit. After a scoreless first-half puntfest in which the Badgers dominated “increasingly irrelevant time of possession” (IITOP), the Nittany Lions wound up winning.
Wisconsin fans are now officially calling for quarterback Graham Mertz’s head after he committed three game-changing turnovers, including two INTs in the closing moments. The Badgers had two excellent chances to win this one late, but their offensive screwups, coupled with Penn State’s staunch red zone defense, slammed the door shut.
Was it just Mertz’s opening night jitters? Whatever the case, the Badgers dominated the stats, but Penn State put up the numbers where they count — on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Mertz had a horrendous day, winding it up with a QBR of 18.5. How LOW can you GO?
Gotta Have Explosive Plays
In the QB battle, though, Sean Clifford wasn’t exactly Joe Montana. His big redemption was finally hitting Jahan Dotson for a 49-yard TD early in the third quarter. Some of his other throws were wayyyyyyyy off the mark. However, it looks like the Franklin Era “we gotta have explosive plays” doctrine is in full effect. That and defense are what won this game for the Lions.
What certainly came close to losing it for them was their chosen all-purpose kicker, Jordan Stout. Jordo has a lot of distance in his leg, as exemplified by his typically unreturnable kickoffs and his long punt of the day being 76 yards. However, his short game is like mine used to be on the golf course: he missed a couple of easy chip shots, including an extra point. What happened to the more accurate Jake Pinegar? I’m told he is still on the team.
Wisconsin’s staunch defense was predictable, which is why “we gotta have explosive plays”. Running up the gut proved to be nothing but frustrations for the Lions, who “amassed” a putrid 50 yards rushing all day long. The passing game was a better bet against the Badgers’ D, with Dotson beating the coverage consistently — if only Clifford could have hit him when he did. Clifford wound up 18-33 for 247 yards and a TD, still a credible effort. Dotson had five catches for 102 yards and a TD. Clifford only hit four different receivers all day, and one of them was Noah Cain coming out of the backfield.
Special Teams Giveth, Special Teams Taketh Away
Jordan Stout owed a debt of gratitude to Jaquan Brisker for his interception of Mertz on fourth-and-goal from the PSU 8 with a couple minutes left in the game. Although they had sucked from scoring position all day, my heart had sunk, believing that the Badgers would surely score in this situation. Big-time college football kickers don’t flub extra points, so I saw a 17-16 loss and a disgraced Jordan Stout on the near horizon. I felt relieved when Brisker snagged that INT.
However, my euphoria was short-lived. The damn game wasn’t over yet. Once again, Penn State couldn’t move the ball, so they wound up punting the ball back to the guys in red. It was like deja vu all over again as the Jerry Sandusky prevent defense bent but fortunately did not break. In fact, it was Mertz’s suckage that ended the game on a sour note for Wisconsin fans, tossing the ball to our own Ji’Ayir Brown with no time on the clock. It was a horrible throw, but the safeties did well today.
For having to be on the field continuously, the Penn State defense was tired but solid. They need to improve. Wisconsin had 174 yards on the ground, which we all would have predicted if asked.
How Irrelevant is TOP?
Is TOP increasingly irrelevant? As I mentioned, the Nittany Lions’ defense was on the field a lonnnnnnnng time, given that the Badgers held the ball for 43 minutes. They managed to keep it together for this game, but as the season wears on, the defense will wear out at this rate. Penn State was able to convert only three of thirteen third downs and no fourth downs. Do we need “explosive” plays? You betcha! Did it take a gift from either God or Graham Mertz to win this one? Yowzah! Can we keep on winning with this imbalance in TOP? Methinks not. Fix it, Yurcich!
I imagine that the Sanguinarians will now think a playoff berth is inevitable. But it’s a lonnnnng season.
(I’ll be back during the week with a prediction of the big showdown with Ball State. I’m not sure, but does their team logo cardinal have teeth, like Louisville’s? Who the hell ever heard of a bird with teeth? But I digress…)
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Big Al says
The defense exceeded my expections although they may have gotten some help from Mertz. The safety play was better than it has been for the last three years. If they can maintain that level of play maybe State’s defense won’t get torched by every team that has a competent quarterback and two decent receivers.
The offense performed as expected (my pre game prediction was that they’d score 16 points). Clifford wasn’t great but he didn’t commit any turnovers and Yurcich didn’t get him injured by calling too many RPOs. If that trend continues State will be competive this year in every game except tOSU. I’m sure the Sanguinarians will be predicting a 12-0 regular season but, IMO, 10-2 is the abolute ceiling and even 10 wins will require a good bit of luck.
The Nittany Turkey says
“may have gotten some help from Mertz”? That’s an understatement! If Wisconsin is to regain respectability, Mertz has to go. If they think they can work on his game, they better drag out the sports psychologists.
I loved the secondary play, but if Mertz was on his game (if he ever had one), they wouldn’t have looked quite as good. Not saying that they didn’t shine, though, but I do think they got a lot of help from the incompetence on the other side of the ball.
The win was encouraging, but the offense has control the ball better or the defense will be wearing out before “the meat” of the schedule is on their plate. That all starts with the offensive line, which did not show me anything resembling dominance in the trenches.
On to face the MAC champs. I hope the offense will show up in the first half!
—TNT
psudrozz says
The bad:
-Franklin’s clock management at the end of the first half.
-Dotson could have had 4 tds; two were overthrown, one was one the mark, and another was short (one can reasonably guess Clifford wasn’t trying to overshoot the target again).
-my heart rate in the final 3 minutes of the game
-Franklin calling a pass play with the last offensive possession.
-Offensive line came out flat and couldn’t handle stunts.
-Targeting calls are ridiculous.
-Bad kicker. Stick to punting.
The Good:
-Franklin going for it on 4th early in the game. It didn’t succeed, but I liked the decision.
-Clifford made good decisions. I don’t think Wisconsin’s secondary is that good, but all things being relative he played aight.
-The offensive line had much better in pass protection in the second half.
-RBs had good blitz pickups.
-That transfer from Temple.
-Winning on the road is tough; moreso in Madison.
-Clutch defense.
I think I watched 6 games this weekend; to put things in perspective, PSU looked better than all but one team: Alabama. All things considered it’s a great start.
The Nittany Turkey says
Sane observation on the Dotson – Clifford connection (or lack of same). Jahan was consistently behind the safeties, if only Clifford could have hit him, I agree that none of those misses were of the “wisely overthrown” variety.
The O-Line needs improvement (as usual).
There’s been some criticism of Franklin going for it on 4th down early, but I agree with you now as I did while the game was live — it was a good decision, no matter how it turned out.
I loved the defensive effort, particularly the linebackers and the secondary. Mustipher was solid. The edge rush was fine. But I keep repeating that they will wear out if the damn offense doesn’t give them recovery time. I guess I’m pissing in the wind with that one, because I have been bitching about it for several years, yet Franklin has not paid attention to me.
I’m going to reserve judgment on this team until we have seen how they perform in the next two games. If the Nits can survive those two, then they might be heading for a 10-2 season. If not, then in the words of the chronically noncommittal parent, we’ll see…
—TNT
K. John says
I have a bulleted list of observations for this week’s game after a brief intro. We got lucky. They made dumber mistakes than we did. If they merely made mistakes equally as dumb as our and didn’t turnover the ball, we lose something like 17/21 to 0. With that said, it is a win and I”ll take it even if the game ball should be going to their QB who provided many turnovers and their safeties who gifted us three long pass, one for a TD with bad handoffs in coverage allowing receivers to get open. Bottom line, I’ll revise my predictions after I see what the offense looks like in week two. Things are looking up. Right now I would still have Iowa and OSU as near sure fire losses and there are still five 50/50ish games on the schedule.
Having a pair of run stuffing tackles payed off against Wisconsin. I don’t think it will hold for the rest of the year but we’ll see.
Our receivers might be the most over-rated position group in the conference right now. Wisconsin successfully single covered them most of the game. With the exception of Parker Washington’s big play, the big plays in the passing game were the result of unforced mental mistakes by Wisconsin. Worse yet, Wisconsin’s secondary is pretty average.
The secondary might be as good as the 2016 unit. I don’t think it will get to the 2014 unit that featured Marcus Allen, Famous Adrian Amos, Jordan Lucas and Trevor Williams but it might match the Amos-less 15. For the first time since Franklin arrived, the unit got better year or year.
The running backs are solid, not great. They have stepped up in pass blacking however.
The linebacker position has the potential to be the best of the Franklin era. Again, for the first time since Franklin arrived, the unit got better year over year.
The offensive line struggled for most of the game. We’ll see if they improve come Auburn.
Increasing irrelevant time of possession can be overcome on a game by game basis, however, win or lose, the impacts tends to be cumulative. Given Yurcich’s demonstrated history, one can expect the defense to play several additional games worth of snaps by the end of the year. They have already played a game and half at this point. This is something to monitor.
People are pumped about the win but I would hit the brakes a bit. Wisconsin is not a top 25 team right now and might not be all year. They lack talent at receiver, their O-line is very average for Wisconsin, especially their tackles, they do not have a stellar running back and their QB is not playing within himself. Limited sample size but this looks like a 7 and 5 team with their schedule.
Non-Penn State observations
John Donovan brought his special brand of incompetence to Washington.
Iowa is the best team in the conference right now. That could change but I am not sure it will. They have the best defense and the best offensive line in the league.
Moo U looked very strong against a solid Northwestern team after rebuilding the offense in a season via the portal. They have real talent coming in next year as well and could be a hot destination for additional transfers.
Maryland has the best QB in the league and the most explosive offense. There defense looked much better than it has since joining the Big Ten.
Rutgers is talent limited but I don’t think I saw a team player harder and as mistake free for four quarters last week. Our D played just as hard however. But the entire team played hard long after the game was over in a blowout of portal depleted Temple.
The Nittany Turkey says
I wondered why the Huskies sucked so badly. Then, I remembered that’s where Donovan went. That Montana game was definitely one worth missing.
I’m not ready to put Iowa atop the conference just because tOSU struggled a bit with Minnesota. However, I believe Iowa has its act together this year and will be a formidable opponent for Dear Old State.
Absent from the comments voiced by half of my six readers was any mention of the crappy place-kicking game. What the hell goes on there? Seems the coaching staff made a conscious decision to use Jordan Stout for all the kicking, but he sure proved that he sucked at short ones. How the hell he could wind up being B10 Special Teams Player of the week, I haven’t a clue. Yeah, a 58-yard punting average is Ray Guy material, but high school girls make extra points and the missed field goal was a slam-dunk. Franklin mansplained it away with his diatribe at today’s mediafest: “there are three parts to a place kick — the snap, the hold, and the kick. On a couple of those, we didn’t get the laces around right.” Meanwhile, Jake Pinegar was reportedly dressed but saw no action. What gives?
One game at a time. As Franklin says, we need to concentrate on going 1-0 this week. I am not looking past the Cardinals, either. These guys must keep up the progress from week to week.
—TNT
SL says
Hello TNT. Just checking in… SN
SN says
Sorry, finger flub (arthritis; 10 yrs older) this SN form a previous blog. I see it isn’t available any longer. But, woke up thinking about Brett & looked you up. Peace, my friend!