#22 Auburn (2-0, 0-0 SEC) vs. #10 Penn State (2-0, 1-0 B10)
It is mighty Auburn’s first-ever trip to a Big Ten university since the SEC was formed, and they picked a perfect place to start. Whited-out St. Joe Memorial Stadium at Beaver Field will be rocking, and Penn State head coach James Franklin has offered to purchase Hall’s throat lozenges for any fans who yell so loud and long on Saturday that they will require treatment on Sunday. And yes, ESPN College Football Gameday will be in town and Adam Taliaferro will be the honorary captain. Big game atmosphere!
Both combatants are coming off easy wins. the Tigers blanked Alabama State 62-0 last week, while the Nittany Lions easily handled Ball State, 44-13. Before that, while Penn State was schtruggling to beat Wisconsin 16-10, Auburn was kicking ass at home against hopeless, hapless Akron, winning 60-10.
Penn State is 1-1 against Auburn all-time, and 23-23 against current members of the SEC.
It is silly to look at stats when opposition has been so feeble, so I won’t. Franklin had to go back to last year’s “tapes”* to try to analyze Auburn. Speaking of Franklin, let us now turn our attention to the major dischtraction.
Franklin on USC short-list? (I digress…)
Deny, deny, deny. Stonewall it, Henry! Let’s take the elephant in the room and sweep it under the proverbial rug, shall we? With Clay Helton’s ass finally being fired after Covid-19 gave him a brief respite, our boy James Franklin is once again on the short-list at USC. Urban Meyer has already said he won’t give up his lucrative NFL job working for billionaire Shahid Khan in Jacksonville. USC is desperately seeking a high-profile replacement. The bloom is off the rose at the once-fabled program, where the past three head coaches have been fired mid-season.
Having fired Helton two games into the season after an ass-kicking at home by unranked Stanford, methinks that the bigwigs at USC will play out the season while taking their time to find a replacement. Donte Williams will assume the interim job with the understanding that regardless of results, USC will be conducting a full search. So, promoting the interim guy like they did the last time doesn’t appear likely.
Aside from Franklin, others mentioned in connection with the fun job at USC are Cincinnati’s head coach Luke Fickell and Clemson OC Tony Elliott, who is from California. Rumors have also included Mario Cristobal, of Oregon, and Bill O’Brien, now Nick Saban’s OC at Alabama. Right now, we’re at the lotta bullshit/little fact stage.
So, you can expect Franklin to continue dodging related questions for the remainder of the season. He’ll continue to pay lip service to sidestepping the distractions and concentrating on going 1-0 this week.
Back to Auburn
With an offense built around a couple of speedy running backs Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby, plus Junior quarterback Bo Nix, Auburn has romped over two weak opponents. Nix is 29-39 for 383 yards and five touchdowns and no interceptions thus far. However, last year, he was picked off seven times. What’s worse for Nix is his abysmal road record where he’s been intercepted twelve times in his college career. And what’s the toughest road environment one can choose? Don’t answer that.
But with a new head coach and something to prove, we’re liable to see Auburn’s A-game, if indeed they can reach that level. To do so, those two running backs will have to perforate what has been a stodgy Penn State rushing defense.
Defensively, Auburn is just as stingy, but again, the dearth of weighty opposition thus far leaves us in a quandary. Are they as good as they looked while shutting out lowly Alabama State? Will Penn State’s running game once again stumble? Will DE T.D. Moultry, who has four TFLs and 2.5 sacks, get into Sean Clifford’s head?
Another digression…
The Sanguinarians are upset that tOSU lost because that will make our win over Ohio State less meaningful with respect to getting a playoff berth. They’re crying in their beer while I’m elated that the Ducks handled the Bucks. They’re already looking past Auburn and Iowa to the showdown with tOSU.
Irrelevant Fact
The Auburn Radio Network’s sideline reporter is Ronnie Brown, who you might remember from his performance in the 2003 Capital One Bowl against PSU, which Auburn won 13-9. I was there and it wasn’t pretty. Brown ran for 184 yards, shredding the vaunted Penn State defense as The Dark Years (cue cello) waged on.
Da Wedda
Hot, mid-September day in State College predicted – 80 degrees with a stray afternoon thundershower. I don’t perceive a benefit to either side.
Da Bottom Line
Now, it’s time for the Nittany Turkey’s own signature Official Turkey Poop Prediction. Penn State now favored by five after opening at seven, with bettors indicating their sensitivity to the Franklin to USC rumors. The over/under is 53. Working it out mathematically, the break-even happens at PSU 29 Auburn 24.
Penn State needs to establish the run and Clifford’s passing accuracy downfield needs to improve. If these things happen and if they continue with their excellent turnover ratio by getting Nix to cough it up on the road, they will be 3-0. Can they? If they can’t contain Bigsby and Hunter, fuggedaboudit! Ideally, it will be a close game. where things like IITOP and punting count for something. Get the running game going. Make some defensive plays. Hold that line! Rah rah, sis boom bah! We want the Lion! Penn State 20, Auburn 13 — take the under. (I haven’t been right on the o/u thus far, so why believe me now!??!?!)
(I’ll be back after the game with some quips and comments. In the meanwhile, enjoy the white-out!).
*OK, what is a “tape”? How long has it been since we have used videotape to record football games? Franklin could have just as easily called what he reviewed “films”, which would have been an even more egregious archaic misrepresentation. What’s wrong with “videos”? It is suitably generic, resistant to upgraded technology, and it quells my Asperger’s driven hypercritical nit-picking prerogative.
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K. John says
This one is probably the hardest game to pick all year. Why? We don’t know much about Auburn. What do we know? Auburn has a new head coach who helped put Boise State on the map as its OC. He has historically run a hybrid pro-style offense featuring some air raid concepts and tons of trick plays. He also picked up the mantle in Boise for a few years at Peterson left for Seattle and held firm. He hired a solid OC in Bobo that shares similar styles and tendencies. The two have a consistent track record of adapting the offense to match the talent on hand, a trait I badly wish James Franklin would acquire. He has only done that once, when he hired Joe Moorhead, but I digress. With that said, other than knowing that they have their very own Sean Clifford in Bo Nix and stellar running backs, we don’t really know what their offense looks like. They used a zone blocking scheme exclusively the last few years and have generally produced good talent on the line and at receiver so one would assume the cabinets were not bare.
The biggest concern for me is getting pressure on the QB. We have next to no interior pass rush which means that we have to rely on tight coverage allowing the ends to get home and/or blitzing to generate pressure. Both have consequences. We have talent at linebacker but from what I have seen, it is very raw in coverage. We don’t play a lot of tight man coverage which usually means the quick hitting routes are there. Ball State got a lot of receivers open last week using such routes but their QB misfired consistently. That is my key when on defense.
Offensively, Auburn might have the best secondary in the country. Their corners and free safety are multi-year starters. All three project as 1st or 2nd round picks. They have a grad transfer at strong safety he is in his fifth year as a starter. Yes, you read that correct. He was projected as a mid to late round pick last year had he gone out despite playing at a lower level school. He has as much playing experience as 3/4s our of secondary combined. Their front seven also features multiple year starters and were solid to good last year and the year before depending on opponent. Coaching wise, Harsin brought on an elite coordinator in Derek Mason who has left the scheme intact. The scheme is very similar to the one he ran at Stanford under Harbaugh and Shaw.
I think this one is going to be low scoring unless there are turnovers. I am more confident in Harsin and Bobo offensively than I am in Franklin and Yurcich. Talent wise, they look even on defense. I give Shaw a major edge over Pry.
Auburn 19
Penn State 13
The Nittany Turkey says
Wow, thanks for your incisive comments. You’re the first I’ve run into who predicts an Auburn win. I would have done so but for the white-out Hall’s Mentholyptus Effect, which gives PSU more of a home field advantage than about anyone else. Call me a homeboy, but I believe this to be true.
Our defense will need to contain Bigsby and Hunter, first, which will be a tough task. Wisconsin would have had over 200 yards on the ground if Mertz’s -26 yerds isn’t included. And Nix might be their own Sean Clifford, but he’s known to be more accurate when he has the time and if his first read is open. While our secondary looks better than usual, it could get burned deep if the pass rush is ineffective. From what I’ve seen, most of Nix’s throws are shorter timing routes, though, and disrupting them is another key.
So, I dunno. I’m watching all these so-called experts out there predicting wins by PSU with scores like 31-27, 27-20, etc. I cannot bring myself to put that many points on the board, at least on the PSU side, given the ineptitude of the running game thus far. It was a bit better last week, but still nowhere near where we need to be if I am right about IITOP being a misnomer for the way things should be.
In the words of the noncommittal parent, we’ll see,,,
—TNT
Big Al says
K John’s already covered most of the things I would have mentioned. The key point is that nobody has a clue about how Auburn will perform. Most of the “experts” and Sanguinarians are assuming that Auburn will experience growing pains under the new coaching staff and that Nix will suck because he has consistently thrown interceptions in road games in the past. I don’t think that either of those assumptions is nessarily correct. Talent wise, Auburn is the 2nd best team (behind tOSU) that the Kitties will play this year.
IMO this game is a toss up only because it is being played at the Beav. (Anywhere else Auburn should be favored). The team that wins will probably be the team whose quarterback screws up the least. The only bet I would place is to take the under since I can’t see State scoring more than 20 points under any circumstances – including being +2 in turnovers.
Will 20 points be enough for Penn State to win? Perhaps, but State’s historical propensity for hair on fire pursuit of the ball while failing to maintain gap integrity could cost them big time if it reappears in this game. Nix is more mobile than the other quarterbacks State has played this year and Harsin has a history of using trick plays to punish teams that overpursue. If nothing else, this game will show whether State’s defense has really improved and whether Penn State is contender or a pretender for the B1G title this year (my gut says it’s the latter). My low confidence prediction is Auburn 24 Penn State 16.
The Nittany Turkey says
Got you for Auburn 24, PSU 16 and the under.
I should rename this blog to the “We Ain’t Got No Homeys” blog. With the two most active of my copious subscribership both predicting wins by the Tiger-Striped War Eagles — ain’t SEC bullshit great… War Eagle!… Hotty totty! like a bunch of kids playing in a sandbox, but I ti-GRESS (sic).. — I am going into this game with some serious doubts, which I didn’t have before I read your comments.
Well, maybe. I had some nagging doubts, which became serious doubts. So, I’m back to “we’ll see” — because as both of you brought out, we’re dealing with too little information at this time. One thing that sticks out in my mind, as I mentioned in the article, is that Wisconsin would have gained over 200 yards on the ground against our defense were it not for Mertz’s -27. Auburn has some talented RBs.
Can this team play ball control and keep the ball away from that clock-eating, yardage-gobbling duo? Not likely. Should be interesting to watch, one way or the other.
—TNT
Big Al says
If it will make you feel any better, I don’t have a whole lot of confidence that Auburn will win. It’s really a 50-50 game. But I’m pretty sure the double digit Penn State win that the Sanguinarians are expecting won’t happen. And I won’t be terribly shocked if this game deflates the Kool Aid drinkers’ unrealistic expections in the same way that the Northwestern game did back in 2014.
The Nittany Turkey says
I wouldn’t feel bad either way. I’ve long since learned to be pragmatic about Penn State football!
But the bubble is bound to burst sometime for the Sanguinarians. Early rankings are worthless. Nevertheless, Toptenness has gone to their heads and they’re looking forward to beating Alabama for the national championship and will continue to think that despite the shellacking Bama will lay on the Gators later today.
What it is is that it sucks to be #10 early. It’s a phony, inflated ranking, based on nothing. (Or “based off of” nothing, as the current vogue speech pattern goes). First decent team that comes along knocks ’em back to #25. Yet, the false hope of the #10 fuels the Sanguinarian euphoria. We surely will achieve football nirvana this year.
I ordered a Tesla, much to the chagrin of my hard right buddies, demonstrating that you CAN teach an Old Turkey new tricks. But I digress…
The best thing about this game is that we REALLY DON’T KNOW WHAT TO EXPECT and that’s what makes it cool!
—TNT
K. John says
Ultimately, I don’t have much faith in Franklin to win a game like this with the team as it is currently configured. Yes we are two and 0 but I don’t put too much stock in the Wisconsin win because I think Wisconsin is a horribly flawed team from a talent stand point and their overall team execution is inconsistent. Talent wise, their O-line and running back positions are not up to their usual standards and they lack talent at receiver in the secondary. Overall, we got lucky in week one. It is a win so I’ll take it but with average execution on Wisconsin’s’ part, we lose 28 to 0 with offensive numbers very much in line with the 6 to 4 Iowa loss.
Offensively, I like Yurcich and think his philosophy is more in line with what Franklin wants but I also know he doesn’t have the horses (and shoddy defenses to run up scores against) needed to replicate what he did at the other OSU. Defensively, I like the secondary, the linebackers have potential but the line is limited by the lack of an interior pass rush and its over reliance on wide 9 edge rushers that take too long to get to the QB, especially against a QB who is getting the ball off as quickly as he can. In order to take that away, you need immediate pressure up the middle or tight bump and run to buy time for the edge to get there. We don’t do either very well and if you blitz, you open hot receivers underneath and our linebackers are very raw in coverage.
I think the offense will be a major asset in the future, just not right now and the defense is solid but fundamentally limited when they can’t simply over power lesser talent like Ball State.
The Nittany Turkey says
Franklin sure hasn’t shined in big games, but the Yurcich hire might provide the catalyst necessary to improve on that. On the other hand, if Franklin and lack of appropriate talent constrain Yurcich, we’re back to the same old shit.
Funny, I was listening to an Auburn podcast where they concluded that Penn State had the better wideouts but Auburn had the better defensive secondary capable of canceling out Dotson and Washington. They think Nix’s quick release timing patterns will befuddle PSU defense, which comports with what you have written. But, they said that they believe both teams have big question marks in the offensive line.
I still feel that whoever establishes the run wins. Auburn SEEMS to have the edge there. But I’ll still go with Penn State because of the white-out factor, just to be different. I have a queasy feeling about my prediction. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
I’m seeing a shitload of predictions that put lots of points on the board for both sides, but I think both defenses are sound enough to avert that potential.
Hoping for a down and dirty, smashmouth game. Don’t let them disappoint me!
—TNT