Penn State vs. Maryland
The Maryland Terrapins are one of the pseudo-rivalry opponents chosen for Penn State by former Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, so this is a cross-border rivalry game. Yeah, right! Back when Penn State was an Eastern Independent, before joining the Big Ten in 1993, the Nittany Lions would regularly square off with the Terps. Our current coaching staff also has some obvious tie-ins there, so we might just consider them regular opponents or something, but not a damn rivalry. The two teams have been playing each other since 1917 and Penn State has won 42 out of 46 games. This dominance suggests that it’s not a rivalry, just an annual beat-down.
No matter how hard its shell might be, a lion can destroy a turtle with one big chomp.
Beating the Terps
At this season’s outset, some wonks gave Maryland their best chance in years to beat the Lions; however, since then, Maryland has self-destructed in its usual fashion. The Terps have descended to a 5-3 overall and 2-3 Big Ten record. After a 5-0 start, they lost three straight, all conference games: tOSU, Illinois, and Northwestern. Losing against some of the worst teams in the league does not portend well for the Turtles.
Maryland has a minuscule chance if they can take care of the ball, which has been one of the big causative factors in the three Big Ten losses. (ESPN’s matchup predictor gives them a 16.9% chance).
Defensively, the Terps allow 109 yards rushing and 231 yards passing per game, good for #5 and #12, respectively, and #8 in total defense. If Penn State cannot get its running attack going, Drew Allar will need to step up, as will his receivers.
Offensively, Maryland, featuring big-name quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, has put up some big numbers. They rank second in passing offense in the Big Ten, behind only Ohio State. I believe that Taulia can put up some big numbers against State. However, the Terps rank eighth in rushing yards, much worse than the Nittany Lions, who rank #3, even with their anemic running game.
Can Penn State’s vaunted defense contain Taulia and his men? Obviously, the pass defense broke down against Marvin Harrison, Jr. and they allowed 269 yards passing last week to Indiana. Otherwise, they’ve been sound enough to be tied with tOSU for #3 in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions rank first in rushing defense, allowing just 74 yards per game. We saw some breakdowns in the past two games, so I hope we can rely on those issues being resolved to guarantee a win in this one.
A Win is Essential
Penn State’s offensive woes continue. They’re third in rushing in the Big Ten, behind Nebraska and Rutgers, while the passing offense is fifth The offensive line is the root of many of the problems, as usual. Run blocking is abysmal and pass protection has not been great. Many blame quarterback Drew Allar and his mediocre receiving corps. Others question why Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are not running effectively. The blame, in this Turkey’s opinion, is misplaced. We are back to Five Traffic Cones as the central failure point of the offense.
While a loss here wouldn’t end the season, it would further demoralize what already looked like a bunch of hang-dog, half-assed competitors during the Indiana game. We sure as hell do not need that going into the game with Michigan, where we must fire on all cylinders offensively, defensively, and on special teams to avoid complete embarrassment at the behest of the Wolverines on our home turf a week from Saturday. The Nittany Lions need to show up and be ready to play. Fortunately for them, kickoff is nominally at 3:30 PM.
‘Explosive’ Plays
I would like to see what a literally explosive play looks like. I’m sick and tired of hearing about explosive plays. More vogue coach/sportswriter bullshit. These guys cannot be original. Show me a play where the ball explodes and I’ll give you an explosive play, already.
With that rant behind us, in the Indiana game we saw the first thusly described play since the season opener. We have not seen many because 1) the offensive line sucks, and 2) the receivers are mediocre, and maybe 3) Allar has been inconsistent. That we needed a 57-yard desperation pass play from Allar to Lambert-Smith for a touchdown to beat Indiana with 1:46 left is telling.
Penn State’s offense seems to be in a conservative box, understanding the limitations of its personnel. To this old Turkey, this is reminiscent of the old St. Joe “sphincter mode” of days of yore, but it is a different situation. Now, they cannot run and they cannot throw deep, so they hope to win games by dinking and dunking.
Problem is, that puts them behind the eight ball on third downs. Ask any Steeler fan what that is like. Penn State is in the middle of the pack with respect to third-down conversions. Furthermore, playing conservatively from the start tends to put them in a position of playing from behind.
I want to see them jump out to early leads and build on them, hence my frustration with this offense.
Da Wedda
Looks to me like a typical fall day in partly cloudy College Park, with a high of 56. Advantage: no one.
Da Bottom Line
The four of you still reading my drivel know that is now time for The Official Turkey Poop Prediction, a regular pseudo-feature of the column. I describe it as awfal offal eminating from this foul old fowl’s cloaca, and worth just as much on the manure market. And that ain’t bat guano!
Our friendly bookies have established Penn State as 10-point favorites, with an over/under of 51. So, that works out to a current break-even score of 36-25. Break-even is, of course, mythical. The bookies always win. That’s a nice position to be in, don’t you think? Too bad we cannot say the same for our Nittany Lions. They needed the last-minute detonated play to score 27 and beat Indiana, perhaps the worst team in the Big Ten by the skin of their teeth. They allowed more points than they gave up to anyone all year. At home, yet! I am going with Penn State 27, Maryland 20, and I am taking the under.
So, I’ll be back after the game with my usual bullshit. Why do people start sentences with “so”? By the way, we’re at the point in the season where rankings start to matter, but we will need to wait until 7 PM Eastern time to discover how the CFP sees things. I predict that Penn State will be #10, but surprises can happen. Happy Halloween! UPDATE! The CFP sees Penn State as #11, which is getting closer to reality, but do you really think they could beat #14 LSU?
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Big Al says
This is a hard game to bet on or predict. It could be like the Indiana game – a one score game that isn’t decided until the final minute. Or Penn State could get a two score lead in the 1st quarter and win by 30 points when the Terps quit after falling behind – like they frequently do. In either case, I’ve still drunk enough blue Kool Aid to think the Kitties will find a way to win this game.
As for rankings, I don’t think State would beat Notre Dame, Tennessee, or Mizou either. And they do suggest that a 10-2 record might not be good enough to get into NY6 Bowl. Another trip to the Citrus Bowl and another loss to an SEC team seems to be the most likely end to this season.
The Nittany Turkey says
No, I don’t think State can beat anyone in the Top 15 or Tennessee, either. They could beat Utah, unless the Utes improved significantly this season while Penn State remained the same, old Penn State, with the Five Traffic Cones and an impotent offense.
Al, the Sanguinarians must be completely confounded. They were hanging their hats on the wonderful 6-0 start including beating such giants as UDel and UMass, and seriously throttling West Virginia. Doggone it, they were averaging over 30 points a game and had the best dang defense in the FBS! They had the longest by God winning streak. Then Ohio State and Indiana handed them the truth and they couldn’t believe it. Nah, it’s just a fluke, and oh, by the way, why did the BCS dare to kick us out of the Top Ten? How are we going to get to the playoffs and kick ass now? Oh, my, what a delusional world the Sanguinarians dwell in.
We knew we weren’t going to find out what this team was made of until they played Ohio State. The lethargy seen in some slow starts with the cupcakes should have given us a clue, though. And now, here we are — back in the mix as an also-ran.
—TNT
K. John says
Well, my take on the offense is that traffic cones are only a symptom of the problem. The biggest problem is the offense itself. Yurcich is hailed by some as an offensive genius. However, history says he is just another spread era offensive coordinator. The offense he runs is exactly what Mike Gundy had installed at Oklahoma State during the era where the entire Big XII conference was allergic to playing defense. The offense is a pass first, pass second and pass third big play driven college spread offense. The offense uses the pass, specifically, the deep pass, to set up the rest of the offense. The lack of talent (due entirely to poor recruiting) and development of the players we do have (due to Franklin firing Stubblefield) is a bigger factor than most think. Clifford’s departure and with it, his mobility which helped overcome the receiver position. Then there are the traffic cones who suffer from a spread offense gap blocking scheme which is the most passive system blocking system used in the modern era, and we are trying to use a run first approach. This isn’t John Donovan level incompetence but it certainly isn’t an ideal use of talent.
Now, the playoffs. We are in all likelihood out, unless the improbably happens. The committee values certain attributes more than others. An undefeated conference champion is where it is at. We have a loss. Even with a win over Michigan, we will need Michigan to beat Ohio State and a boatload of a help to get to the Big Ten championship game as we are a distant third (and likely getting further this weekend) in the tie breaker competition. Even if we somehow get in, win the Big Ten, we are still behind the eight ball when it comes to the playoff selection as we will have the fewest number of quality wins of any 1 loss conference champion. Franklin’s preference for soft schedules to increase the odds of running the table will bite us in the fourth point of contact. Furthermore, with a loss to Michigan, we need a heck of a lot of help to quality for a Selection Committee Bowl game given that they intent to use the selection criteria they will use for next year’s 12 team playoff to determine this year’s top 12. In previous years, spots 5 through 12 were largely based on AP and Coaching poll rankings. This year, not so much. Quality wins weigh quite heavily and Michigan is the only chance of having one.
As for the Twerps, they are toast. Josh Gattis is a horrible offensive coordinator. He is a better coordinator than position coach but that isn’t saying much because he was a horrible receiver coach. We’ll get pressure early and often. Maryland will turn the ball over and we’ll coast so long as they run the offense like they did prior to Ohio State. That will be good enough to get a win over Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State and hopefully keep UM from running up the score too much because I expect them to put the screws to every team they play. If they can humiliate a team, they will try.
Penn State 35
Maryland 13
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks for your assessment of the offensive maladies.
I wonder how many of the problems we attribute to Yurcich’s offense are really Franklin problem. Obviously, everything is Franklin’s problem (and Franklin is Kraft’s problem) but do we know how hands-on he is with the offense? Moorhead aside, Franklin’s OC hires have reflected his capriciousness, which he represents as opportunism. In the Bahamas, we had an old maxim: “Da fish stink from da head.” For my money, Franklin is the limiting factor and Kraft is now stuck with the cushy deal with which his bosom buddy Sandy Barbour conspired to reward James in anticipation of her “retirement”. An unlikely buyout would be painful and embarrassing for Penn State.
Despite your analysis, which gives PSU a scintilla of hope for entering the playoffs (or even a New Year’s Six bowl), I think they’ve done themselves in completely, unless through some quirk of fate they can beat Michigan. As you properly identified, strength of schedule is definitively lacking with UDel and UMass on the non-conference slate and weak B10 opponents other than tOSU and UM. Next year, although they scheduled Bowling Green and Kent State (and arguably, West Virginia) as their cupcakes, they also have UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, tOSU, and Washington. Good luck with that schedule. The fortunate thing is that Penix will be playing in the NFL by that time. Absent some miracle, I see a seven- or eight-win season in 2024.
As for the Twerps, they self-destruct seemingly every year. Locksley does some pretty weird things, but it’s just the lingering aura of James Franklin that does them in. (Just a Franklin-bashing joke, not a serious postulate). After three straight losses, two to the dregs of the Big Ten, the fair-weather Maryland fans will no doubt desert SECU Stadium, leaving mostly blue and white in the stands. When the Terps tank on the football field, they turn to basketball.
—TNT
Big Al says
To be exact, next year’s schedule is: at home against UCLA, at USC, bye week, at Wisconsin, immediately followed by home games against OSU and Washington. Since Franklin’s teams tend to play poorly on the road, in the game after the bye week, and in the game following their loss to OSU, that schedule virtually guarantees a four game losing streak – even if they manage to beat UCLA (who will be probably better than any team State beats this year.) An 8-4 season looks like the ceiling for next year.
And here’s a non fun fact about the wide receivers in State’s 2023 recruiting class: NONE of them are the top 85 at that position according to Phil Steele (who aggregates all the recruiting rankings). By comparison, OSU recruited 3 of the top 5 and USC got the 2nd and 7th ranked recruit. Oregon, Michigan, UCLA all got 3 or more receivers from the top 85. Even Nebraska, Illinois, and Washington managed to recruit at least one receiver from the top 85. And West Virginia got 2.
The Nittany Turkey says
I’m sitting here watching tOSU getting off to its usual lethargic start, this time against Rutgers. No doubt, tOSU will win, but they sure look like shit late in the first half, with Rutgers leading 9-6. Rutgers came to play, but the CFP might want to rethink that #1 position. Meanwhile, temporary hope exists in Piscataway.
Thanks for adding the information about the 2024 schedule venues and the recruiting failures.
After reading your reply, if there is any hope for a decent 2024 season, I’m not seeing it.
—TNT
The Nittany Turkey says
Well, I see the line has dropped to PSU-8.5 and the o/u is now 49.5. The weather has not changed. The only thing that happened since the spread opened at 10.5 was the CFP Committee ranking PSU #11. That, and a lot of disinterest in wagering on this game, I suppose. My prediction, however, stands. I think Taulia will come out slinging, and after a couple of quick scores, he’ll spray the ball indiscriminately, resulting in a couple of picks to save Penn State’s ass this week.
—TNT