#3 Michigan vs #11 Penn State
In what some clowns characterize as a season-defining game for Penn State, the Nittany Lions (8-1, 5-1) host the Michigan Wolverines (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten). James Franklin, in his MONDAY damn press conference, I guess because Jim Harbaugh held his on MONDAY, damnit, called for the crowd to eat lots of donuts to be on a sugar high when entering Beaver Stadium, so the energy and noise levels remains high, at least until Michigan jumps out to a 21-0 lead. (Yeah, I’m kidding, but sure as hell possible given the slow starts we’ve seen).
I still have no idea why the media madness was on Monday, although it might be because the geniuses in Washington moved Veteran’s Day from Saturday to Friday. We don’t need more days off from work in this country — we need more productivity! But I digress…
Some Sanguinarians have already been laying the foundation for their post-game whining and blame laying. All the headlines about the Michigan sign-cataloging, scouting visits, and forecasted Harbaugh suspensions provide the bricks, while the Sanguinarians will provide the mortar. If Penn State loses, we will see a study in creative denial, architected even more intensely than we typically see during PSU’s mostly perennial losses to Michigan and Ohio State. “Hmmm,” they’ll say. “So THAT’S why they’ve been beating us all these years! They cheat!”
Of course, if the Nittany Lions should by some strange quirk of fate prevail in this game, they will invoke a distant echo of the late, lamented Pittsburgh Pirates announcer Bob Prince, “We had ’em all the way!” Yep. Even cheating could not stop the mighty Penn State juggernaut.
Why Cheat When You Have the Goods?
Yeah, why? Damn good question. Harbaugh’s narcissistic insecurities, perhaps? Richard Nixon had the same problem. He didn’t need the Watergate break-in to win a second term agains the hapless Democrats led by weak-ass peacenik George McGovern, but Nixon’s paranoia reigned supreme. In Harbaugh’s case, I suppose the answer might emerge in the investigation, or it might not. Personally, I do not give a rat’s ass. The only thing is, we don’t know whether they truly have the goods. That will be demonstrated and decided on the field.
On any given day, Michigan can beat Penn State, in my opinion, and they don’t need to steal signs. Our deficient offensive line and lack of breakaway talent will likely hand them the victory, because they seem sound in all aspects of their game. The odd indicator is ESPN’s matchup predictor, which gives PSU a slight edge, 50.7% to 49.3%. I suspect the difference is about three points worth of home field advantage. Call it the morning donut index. Another factor is strength of schedule. Penn State has played Ohio State, the only other real team in the Big Ten; Michigan has not.
Yes, the Wolverines are 9-0, but again, who have they played? Absolutely no one. Purdue (2-7), this past weekend, whom they beat 41-13, might have been their toughest opponent. So, maybe they are suspect at this point. Nevertheless, they haven’t scored fewer than 30 points in any game all year, and the most they’ve given up were the 13 to Purdue. They shut out Moo U. 49-0, and allowed no more than 10 points to Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Indiana.
So, I dunno. Get Chop Robinson back to harass J.J. McCarthy, and then PSU must stop Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards on the ground. The offensive line is competent as is the receiving corps, led by wide receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, tight end Colston Loveland, and Donovan Edwards coming out of the backfield.
Drew Allar must be on target and must take some risks to win this game. Furthermore, the running game must show up, which remains doubtful. This might be the best defense Penn State has seen.
I cannot state it enough. Penn State must hang onto the ball. Careless turnovers and stupid penalties will lose this game for them. So will stupid play calling, but we know we will get at least a couple of boneheaded plays out of Yurcich and Franklin. As I stated in the last post, confusing the defense is desirable; making them laugh at us is not.
Da Wedda
So, it looks like fall in State College, partly cloudy with a prediction of 38 degrees at kickoff time.
Da Bottom Line
Hiya, fans of the Official Turkey Poop Prediction. I know who you are and I know that you skipped all my blather to see what kind of idiotic prediction I would make. Well, you missed me mentioning Bob Prince and Richard Nixon in consecutive paragraphs, so bleahhh! Idiocy is guaranteed here, and I certainly own up to the fact that I’m no expert, just the guy next to you drinking O’Doul’s and bullshitting at the bar. (I had to give up alcohol because of old-fart chronic turkey ailments. That makes watching Penn State much more difficult than it would in a lubricated state, I might add).
The line at MONDAY publication time favors Michigan by 3.5 and calls for an over/under of 44.5, which works out to a 24-21 Michigan victory. Are they any good? They haven’t played anyone, so who knows. The turkey will take a shot at it. I’m amazed by what Blake Corum can do to defenses at 5’8″ – 213 lbs. I also know how frustrating Penn State’s offense has been this year. I’m going with Michigan 29, Penn State 20, and take the over, but not because PSU will be doing any huge amount of scoring.
I’ll be back sometime after the game to make some excuses of my own.
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Robert Hibbert says
Di-to on old-fart chronic turkey ailments. Bob Prince and Richard Nixon two of my favorite people.
Will be in my easy chair with the PENN STATE drink (Pepsi).
Bob – K3BOB
K3BOB@Hibbert.net
The Nittany Turkey says
Bob,
Great to hear from you, turkey ailments and all! I hope you’re doing well despite your concordance on the old-farthood. I’m still plugging along as awards secretary for the club.
I hope the boys dig deep to produce their best effort on Saturday and surprise us all. But I am not buying Franklin’s donut theory, at least for the student section. They’ll be more likely trying to offset their hangovers with coffee.
Go Lions!
73,
Ben – AE4NT (aka TNT)
Big Al says
I’m pretty sure 17 is the maximum amount of points that Penn State’s offense will be able to generate by itself. Michigan’s defense is the best defense Penn State will face this year.
I’m less certain about Michigan’s offense. It’s fundamentally sound but not very dynamic – they just try to grind you down physically so that you eventually make mistakes.
And Penn State’s defense will eventually make mistakes given their proclivity for roughing and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties.
Indiana and Rutgers both scored the 1st touchdown and got an early lead. To have any chance of winning, the Kitties must do the same and carry that lead into the 4th quarter. Michigan is not a team you can come from behind and beat in the 4th quarter.
Penn State will lose this game by more than 3.5 points but the exact amount is hard to predict. I don’t see a 2nd half collapse like last year. It’s either going to be 2nd quarter collapse and a 20+ point curb stomping or a one touchdown 4th quarter loss where Michigan’s winning drive was extended by a late hit/unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. My gut tells me it to choose latter scenario. Michigan 23 Penn State 16
BTW the fact that Indiana and Rutgers both scored on their 1st possession contradicts the whole “they’re stealing signs” narrative. If Michigan knew their signs, why couldn’t stop them from scoring? Perhaps Indiana and Rutgers changed their signs before the game. Are coaches so naive or lazy that they think they can use the same signs for every game they play? IMO this sign stealing controversy is total BS.
Ben Goldfarb says
Perhaps IU and Rutgers start the game with the Paterno 25 scripted plays, therefore, no signals are required. That would seem to be a good way to defeat the sign stealing bullshit, if they suspected it.
—TNT
K. John says
Personally, I am sick of hearing about the sign stealing bit. Michigan has handled it’s business this year and last year. Lost in the noise is the fact that TCU threw a game plan at Michigan that they didn’t put on film during the regular season.
Remember how OSU was forced to change their offense back during their winning playoff season as one quarterback went down after the other? They went into the year using Braxton Miller (aka Reggie Bush at quarterback) but lost him just prior to the start of the season forcing Urban Meyer to retool the offense costing them an early loss to Virginia Tech, a team they would have rolled a month later.
Against Michigan, they lost JT Barrett forcing them to abandon the offense they used up until that point and went pure smash mouth with Cardale “I didn’t come here to play school” Jones to get to the title game and then unleashed a deep passing game Bama they weren’t prepared to play against.
The result was a championship. The comparison is very relevant to the TCU vs. Michigan playoff game last year as they threw an entirely new game plan, offensively and defensively, at Michigan. I doubt signs played much, if any role. But, it is all noise. I have doubts that this was Michigan’s plan.
I think this dude was using family money to pay for a scheme to get a low level job at Michigan and try to scam his way up from there. If anyone at Michigan were to come up with such a complicated plan, how did they completely miss obvious need to cover their tracks? The need to ask that question strongly suggests it was the work of an amateur which also happens to fit all the other evidence as well.
With that said, I think we might be in for it. I saw some progress against Maryland, but we are talking about Maryland who only looked competent against bad teams (see my post on the Maryland out brief). Bottom line, our offense and defense are worse than last year at every position group. How hard Michigan tries will be the deciding factor on the scoreboard.
I am half expecting another uncompetitive game. If Michigan makes a few unforced errors like they did last year, it might look like a game for a half. If they don’t, look out. Regardless, if they get a chance to pour on the points, they will.
Michigan 42
Penn State 15
Wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to run it up and go for 60. I can see a scenario where the game is closer but think it is unlikely.
Ben Goldfarb says
I can see it getting frustrating for Yurcich and Franklin, blowing whatever game plan they might have concocted. Will Singleton and Allen gain 50 yards between them? I fear it will be like Maryland against the PSU defense when they figured out that they couldn’t run. If they come out passing against Michigan’s secondary and get sloppy, embarrassment will result. As Sarah Connor once said, “Anyone not wearing SPF 1,000,000 will have a very bad day.” (I don’t know how that’s relevant — just sayin’.).
—TNT