#19 Illinois (4-0) at #9 Penn State (3-0)
As I await the peripheral effects of Hurricane Helene, I sit here scratching my head. How the hell do the oddsmakers see this game as much as a 19.5 point spread? A presumed Top Twenty matchup should be closer than that, shouldn’t it? And when you consider that Penn State has beaten nobody in the Top Twenty whereas Illinois has two Top Twenty victories, has sanity left Reno?
Illinois beat #22 Nebraska in overtime on their home turf last week. Two weeks prior to that game, they had beaten #19 Kansas 23-17. Meanwhile, Penn State was dispatching no one in the Top 50. After an opening win against WVU (now 2-2), the Nittany Lions stumbled to pull out a victory against Bowling Green, then blew out bottom-feeder Kent State after a crappily slow start. Penn State is not yet tested, so this game should provide some clues. But, still…???
Sufficient Talent on Illiniwekian Offense
Illinois has an experienced quarterback in Luke Altmyer, one of the best in the Big Ten. He has no interceptions thus far this year, and he’s got a couple of decent receivers to test the Penn State secondary, which is missing a key component or two. In the see-saw Nebraska game, the Illini passed for 215 yards on a 21-27, four-touchdown performance by Altmyer. Senior receiver Pat Bryant caught five for 74 yards and two touchdowns.
Kaden Feagin, a homegrown sophomore, is the primary running back in an offense that turns to the run to ice games, in Bret Bielema style. He and his colleagues ran for 166 yards against Nebraska, averaging 4.3 yards per rush.
TNT’s Simplistic Keys to the Game
Let’s start with this: GET ON THE BOARD FIRST AND DON’T PLAY FROM BEHIND! That’s a tall order for the Nittany Men, a typically slow starting outfit. Will 7:30 PM start, coupled with the “white out energy” James Franklin has exhorted fans to bring, enable them to wake the hell up before the opening kickoff? Franklinly, I ain’t holding my breath!
So, come out shooting! Savvy old pig farmer Bret Bielema will certainly have his boys ready, so Penn State must respond in kind.
The danger in playing from behind against Illinois is that they’ll go into full Bielema Three-Yards-and-a-Cloud-of-Dust Mode, chewing up yards and clock, keeping the PSU defense on the field and letting the Nittany Lion offense stiffen up on the sidelines. Get out to an early lead and build on it, damnit!
AND DO NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE DAMN SPREAD! Although James Franklin pays lip service to it, these guys lack the discipline to play every game as if they were playing for the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC). They play down to their perceived view of their opponents until they are in over their heads, then they desperately struggle to win. None of that bullshit here!
End of Keys to Game rant, already!
Famous Alumna
Jenny, my wife. University of Illinois, BS, 1986.
Da Wedda
All eyes are on the weather right here in Florida, so who cares about Pennsylvania, already? OK, just kidding. So here is what our friends at AccuWeather say: “Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower; a rain jacket may be needed for the football game.” They’re calling for more than a shower, though, giving us an 80% chance of precipitation, with a high temp of 72 and a low of 60. Not horrible, so I cannot see it either benefiting or penalizing either team.
Da Bottom Line
Enough bullshit for now. Let’s get serious. Well, as serious as things get around here. As I stated at the outset, I cannot believe the humongous spread or the fact that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Penn State an overwhelming shot at victory, to the tune of 86.3%. I see this game as much more even than that, and then, there’s Franklin’s history of not covering spreads.
So, my friends, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, that fallible forecast by this foul, fallow, fossilized fowl, will bring you back to reality. While the fanciful spread established by weed-smoking punters is currently at 19.5 (oy vey!), if I were a betting bird, I would put all my eggs in the Illini basket, taking the points. The over/under is 47.5, suggesting a break-even final score of 34-14, in favor of the homeys. While this won’t be a nine-overtime game reminiscent of the 2021, I see it as ending up more like the Bowling Green game, especially if the slow start flag is flying and the boys think they’re in a walkover. So, I’ll predict that same damn score: Penn State 34, Illiniweks 27. Take the over.
I’ll be back after the big Homecoming White Out Energy game for a glimpse at where my prediction went wrong. In the meantime, toodle-oo.
