#19 Illinois (4-0) at #9 Penn State (3-0)
As I await the peripheral effects of Hurricane Helene, I sit here scratching my head. How the hell do the oddsmakers see this game as much as a 19.5 point spread? A presumed Top Twenty matchup should be closer than that, shouldn’t it? And when you consider that Penn State has beaten nobody in the Top Twenty whereas Illinois has two Top Twenty victories, has sanity left Reno?
Illinois beat #22 Nebraska in overtime on their home turf last week. Two weeks prior to that game, they had beaten #19 Kansas 23-17. Meanwhile, Penn State was dispatching no one in the Top 50. After an opening win against WVU (now 2-2), the Nittany Lions stumbled to pull out a victory against Bowling Green, then blew out bottom-feeder Kent State after a crappily slow start. Penn State is not yet tested, so this game should provide some clues. But, still…???
Sufficient Talent on Illiniwekian Offense
Illinois has an experienced quarterback in Luke Altmyer, one of the best in the Big Ten. He has no interceptions thus far this year, and he’s got a couple of decent receivers to test the Penn State secondary, which is missing a key component or two. In the see-saw Nebraska game, the Illini passed for 215 yards on a 21-27, four-touchdown performance by Altmyer. Senior receiver Pat Bryant caught five for 74 yards and two touchdowns.
Kaden Feagin, a homegrown sophomore, is the primary running back in an offense that turns to the run to ice games, in Bret Bielema style. He and his colleagues ran for 166 yards against Nebraska, averaging 4.3 yards per rush.
TNT’s Simplistic Keys to the Game
Let’s start with this: GET ON THE BOARD FIRST AND DON’T PLAY FROM BEHIND! That’s a tall order for the Nittany Men, a typically slow starting outfit. Will 7:30 PM start, coupled with the “white out energy” James Franklin has exhorted fans to bring, enable them to wake the hell up before the opening kickoff? Franklinly, I ain’t holding my breath!
So, come out shooting! Savvy old pig farmer Bret Bielema will certainly have his boys ready, so Penn State must respond in kind.
The danger in playing from behind against Illinois is that they’ll go into full Bielema Three-Yards-and-a-Cloud-of-Dust Mode, chewing up yards and clock, keeping the PSU defense on the field and letting the Nittany Lion offense stiffen up on the sidelines. Get out to an early lead and build on it, damnit!
AND DO NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THE DAMN SPREAD! Although James Franklin pays lip service to it, these guys lack the discipline to play every game as if they were playing for the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC). They play down to their perceived view of their opponents until they are in over their heads, then they desperately struggle to win. None of that bullshit here!
End of Keys to Game rant, already!
Famous Alumna
Jenny, my wife. University of Illinois, BS, 1986.
Da Wedda
All eyes are on the weather right here in Florida, so who cares about Pennsylvania, already? OK, just kidding. So here is what our friends at AccuWeather say: “Mostly cloudy and humid with a shower; a rain jacket may be needed for the football game.” They’re calling for more than a shower, though, giving us an 80% chance of precipitation, with a high temp of 72 and a low of 60. Not horrible, so I cannot see it either benefiting or penalizing either team.
Da Bottom Line
Enough bullshit for now. Let’s get serious. Well, as serious as things get around here. As I stated at the outset, I cannot believe the humongous spread or the fact that ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Penn State an overwhelming shot at victory, to the tune of 86.3%. I see this game as much more even than that, and then, there’s Franklin’s history of not covering spreads.
So, my friends, the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, that fallible forecast by this foul, fallow, fossilized fowl, will bring you back to reality. While the fanciful spread established by weed-smoking punters is currently at 19.5 (oy vey!), if I were a betting bird, I would put all my eggs in the Illini basket, taking the points. The over/under is 47.5, suggesting a break-even final score of 34-14, in favor of the homeys. While this won’t be a nine-overtime game reminiscent of the 2021, I see it as ending up more like the Bowling Green game, especially if the slow start flag is flying and the boys think they’re in a walkover. So, I’ll predict that same damn score: Penn State 34, Illiniweks 27. Take the over.
I’ll be back after the big Homecoming White Out Energy game for a glimpse at where my prediction went wrong. In the meantime, toodle-oo.
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Big Al says
I’m not super impressed by Illinois. Nebraska outplayed Illinois and should have won the game in regulation but Raiola played like the freshman he is during the 4th quarter and overtime. Illinois’ front four on defense isn’t as good as the 2022 version but they have a decent secondary.
If Penn State can run effectively against Illinois defense and the DL can pressure Altmeyer, they can cover the spread. However, I wouldn’t bet on either of those things occurring. The Kitties should be able to generate at least 27 points but I don’t know what to expect from Penn State’s defense. .Taking Illinois and getting the points, seems like easy money but it might be a sucker bet. I wouldn’t bet on this game, but, if somebody made me bet, I’d take the over.
One thing is pretty certain. This is a must win game if Penn State hopes to make the playoffs. Finishing 10-2 with losses to Illinois and O$U won’t be good enough because there’s a good chance the B1G will have 5 teams with 10 or more wins – including Illinois if they beat Penn State (Michigan and Oregon are the only certain losses left on their schedule)
The Nittany Turkey says
So, you’re still as up in the air about PSU’s capabilities as I am. That’s encouraging — or not, depending on what one’s interest level is in finding out. I would like this game to tell me something that I didn’t know, even if that means giving the defense an IS rating. (IS = It Sucks).
This year, Altmyer seems to have suddenly learned how not to throw interceptions. Ten last year and none so far this year. If the PSU defense (Carter) can put the pressure on him that you have dialed up, we might see his first. Of course, our less than impressive secondary might also decide to drop some easy picks like hot potatoes.
Unlike the Sanguinarians, who are still glowing after the expected Kent State bloodbath, I do not expect Penn State to be in the playoffs. My hope is that they don’t embarrass themselves and the dear Sanguinarians by losing the next four out of five. To save face, they’ll need to win two out of three against Illinois, UCLA, and Wisconsin. They’ll likely lose to USC and tOSU. And if they can win out after tOSU, they wind up 9-3 and #15, with a bid to the Music City Bowl, just as we all expected.
So, let’s see that white out energy, already. I think this one will probably garner some of my attention while watching the Georgia-Alabama game on the other screen.
—TNT