(I thought I could resist that title temptation, but nooooo…….)
#5 Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at USC (3-2, 1-2 Big Ten)
Wow! The Penn State Nittany Lions, who backed into the #5 spot in the AP college football poll, will hop onto a silver bird in Harrisburg on Thursday for their first non-backyard road trip of the 2024 season. Their opponent, USC, awaits them, pissed off after an unexpected 24-17 conference loss to Minnesota last week, which unrolled the Trojans right out of the Top 25.
Fancy Pants
Penn State’s ascension in the polls was unrelated to the sucky UCLA game last week, which should have lowered their status. As a four-touchdown favorite, the Lions sleepwalked their way to a 27-11 victory, with the help of some questionable officiating. Their good fortune resulted from Upset Saturday, on which #1 and #4 teams, among other highly ranked squads, fell to lesser opponents. A slow start this week would imperil that generous ranking, if not the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes.
Obstacles to Overcome
PSU has a few things going against it this week. First, the long road trip and associated jet lag won’t help them get off to an uncharacteristic quick start. “We’re a second-half team.” Yeah, right. Kickoff is at 3:30 PM Eastern time, which is 12:30 PM in L.A. Noon starts on the road have never been a good thing for this team.
Next, we have the uncertainty of Nick Singleton’s recovery. Although he is expected to play, the same words were spoken in advance of the UCLA game, in which he didn’t play.
Finally, there is a big intangible. USC will be at home and they will be pissed off after the Minnesota loss. Recall that after losing a close game to Michigan, Lincoln Riley’s boys destroyed Wisconsin the following week, 38-21.
Some pseudo-experts think Penn State is just coasting, waiting for some opposition. That sounds like bullshit to me. On the other hand, in playing just well enough to win five games, they have demonstrated that they can maintain some semblance of control.
But really, Boys and Girls, who the hell have they played? Soporifically, against Illinois at home in Beaver Stadium two weeks ago and again against UCLA. Hugely favored in both games, they did not cover the spreads. So, they’re either underperforming, or they are overrated. I am leaning toward the latter.
Keys to the Game (as the hack sports commentators call it)
To beat USC, they better take the damn ball and run with it. Literally. In the UCLA game, Penn State managed only 85 yards on thirty carries for an anemic average of 2.8 yards per carry. Of course, as I had mentioned, Nick Singleton did not play. This week, they’re looking at a weaker rushing defense, so they need to capitalize on their strength versus USC’s weakness. USC ranks 87th in rushing defense versus UCLA’s 25th. Michigan ran for 290 yards on them; Minnesota rushed for 193. We need to see a combined effort of at least 200 yards from Singleton, Allen, and Company to soften the defense for some rare (thus far) shots down the field. However, the Trojan’s pass defense has allowed only 157.6 yards per game this year, just 0.6 yards worse than PSU.
On the offensive side, USC can pass. They’re ringing up 292.8 yards per game through the air, so something’s gotta give. With some holes in the PSU secondary, the Trojans are liable to come out throwing. Obviously, the emphasis has shifted away from what used to be USC’s claim to fame, the running game, where the Prophylactics rank in the third quartile, averaging only 149.6 yards per game. (But that sure as hell beats 85!)
I’ll Stick My Neck Out
So, I am hoping that Singleton plays, and I am hoping that the Nittany Lions will be awake, focused, and not stupidly looking forward to the bye week. I will base my prediction on those optimal circumstances, but first, the infallible “it never rains in Southern California” forecast.
Da Wedda
Standard L.A. forecast for game day—partly sunny with a high of 85 and a low of 60, with only a one-percenter chance of rain. Negligible winds. Might be a little warm for our boys, but otherwise, the weather is no factor.
Da Bottom Line
The Nittany Lions, who in my mind have not yet been tested by any team that does not suck, might be looking at their stiffest challenge yet. Half of that is due to the commuting distance. Having commuted from Orlando to Southern California at one stage in my consulting career, I can tell you that it ain’t easy. These guys are lots younger, but jet lag does strange things to brains of all ages. The remaining half is getting the damn anemic offense in gear—both running and passing. If they can take care of business, they can win this one and even blow away the spread.
Analysis (for what it’s worth)
Time now for the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, the fearless forecast floated forth by this foul, albeit felicitous, fowl. The spread opened at Penn State – 4 and is now – 5.5 as I write this. The over/under has increased from 48.5 to 50.5. Perhaps, the gamblers are optimistic about Singleton and the running game. I’m here to tell you that it is Penn State’s bright, shining hope.
The spread combined with the over/under suggests a Penn State win by a score of 28-22. However, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives USC the edge, with a 51.6% chance of winning. Home field advantage must be heavily weighted in ESPN’s algorithm. After all, the cavernous L.A. Memorial Colisseum was built for the 1932 Olympics, was home to the 1984 Olympics, and will be the primary venue for the 2028 Olympics. So what? Well, O.J. Simpson played many games there, too. I know, I know. I’m stalling. So, I’ll spit it out, already: Penn State 31, USC 20. Yeah, they cover the spread and go over. Howzat for non-Sanguinarian optimism?
End Notes
While I hope to be back after the game to recap it and gloat about my highly accurate prediction, a couple of things might throw a monkey wrench into my plans.
First, right now as I am writing this, my area is under a hurricane warning and a tornado watch, thanks to an unruly lad named Milton. For the next twenty-four hours, we’ll be dealing with hell’s fury, but we won’t be out of the woods even then. First, a great potential for a protracted power outage exists. Flooding is expected due to up to fifteen inches of rain, and flood waters tend to rise maddeningly slowly. Furthermore, there will be property damage to assess and cleanup to be initiated. So, that all sucks.
Even if all the stars line up, I will not be watching the game live. It is scheduled on Yom Kippur, and as a Jew I must atone for my copious sins and fast between Friday sundown and Saturday sundown. I answer to a higher authority than the football gods on the Day of Atonement. Therefore, I will be watching the game after darkness sets in. I’ll need to set up a second screen to watch the all-important #2 tOSU at #3 Oregon game, which kicks off shortly after sunset. All this assumes that I will not be dealt a devastating blow by Milton.
See you on the other side!
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K. John says
Good luck to you and yours TNT. I have a couple of Penn State buddies that live in Tampa that have moved inland from MacDill to Orlando. Wish you gods speed.
For this game, I am close to the point where I don’t know what to expect. What do I know. I know we are likely five games into the easiest schedule we have played since the 80s. Even in blowouts, we have struggled with some really bad teams. Even Kent State gave us a game for a spell until quitting at which point the points started rolling. USC overall presents a different challenge, a road game against the best offense we have played and the best defense. What have we seen to date out of the offense?
Quarterback – Allar is good, he is essentially Blaine Gabbert. He lacks top tier ball placement skills but overall is an asset. Pribula is Trace 2.0. He can run but he can’t throw, at least not to the level of a good D1 dual threat.
Receiver – We are playing a Big Ten schedule (allegedly) with MAC level receivers. Clifford is by far the best we have and he is functionally limited.
Tight End – Warren is great, he is probably the 3rd best TE in the country, but also the 3rd best TE in the Big Ten. He IS our best player.
Running Back – Allen and Singleton are the package. We need both. Singleton goes down too easily on first contact, Allen lacks the explosiveness to overcome other issues on offense.
O-line – Not great, not good, not bad either. Best line we have had since 2017. However, individually, every linemen has lost individual battles against second rate talent on a regular basis. Not good.
Coaching – This is where we are a step up despite some talent issues. Like I said before, look at Kansas and see what that offense looks like. The Jimmies and Joes are important but in this era, coaching is even more important. Look at 2016. Despite a massive downgrade in talent at QB, the offense took off once Joe Moorhead figured out that Trace wasn’t a passer. Great coaching. Andy isn’t JoeMo but he isn’t Yurcich either.
With that said, I do think the offense will struggle again, largely because we are essentially playing equivalent talent for the first time this year, with or without Singleton. If Singleton is out, points are going to be hard to come by. Defensively, our D-line has gotten man handled by every team (including Kent State) when they have been run at. Carter is liability at end. If Riley’s boys come out hot, they will put some point up putting us in hole.
Overall, USC is the second best team on the schedule but most years would be third or fourth best. USC has beaten LSU. Franklin almost never beats a team that owns that strong of a win. In fact, he has done it exactly twice. USC 35, Penn State 21
The Nittany Turkey says
Got you for 35-21. I appreciate your detailed commentary, especially about the O-line and the running back tandem.
I sure wish Allar could address his accuracy issues. But he is what he is, and I doubt that our coaching wonks can improve him.
I’m still thinking that we can run on these condoms. The passing game with Warren and Singleton out of the backfield will do well enough. I agree that it is pitiful that Clifford is our deep threat!
We had only minor damage and a day of cleanup here at our two houses. All are well. We are fortunate.
—TNT
Big Al says
May you have an easy fast. And minimal storm damage from Milton.
Penn State’s keys to winning this game are (1) being able to run on USC and bleed the clock and (2) being able to maintain a pass rush for 4 quarters. State’s defensive backs are overrated and will be torched if Moss gets enough time to throw. And State’s wide receivers won’t be able to get open against USC’s dbs.
At the beginning of the season, I wrote this game off as a loss, but USC’s offense hasn’t been as good as expected. Even so, I think USC wins the game since they’re playing at home. (i’d pick State if the game were at the Beav)
USC 23 State 20 after the Kitties blow a 4th quarter lead and miss two field goals attempts.
The Nittany Turkey says
Thanks for the wishes, Al. We suffered only minimal damage and no injuries, other than my sore back from a day of heavy cleanup.
Running on USC is indeed the key, as is using Singleton as a receiver out of the backfield, along with creative use of Tyler Warren’s triple-threat talent. PSU must throw some deep balls to keep the USC defense honest, so I hope Allar does not throw off-target (hoping against hope) interception invitations. I think PSU can win with decent defense and with effective use of its offensive tools. We’ll see.
In the meanwhile, got you for the 23-20 4th Q lead blow. (And that would truly blow!).
—TNT