#3 Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1)
High expectations abound for the #3-ranked Nittany Lions as they tromp into Camp Randall Stadium for a prime-time matchup with the Wisconsin Badgers. Like all the other games leading up to this, because of Penn State’s easy schedule, this game will tell us a lot. Or not.
Thing is, the Lions backed into a #3 ranking with what? Where are the signature wins over Top 25 teams? The best win they can claim is 21-7 against Illinois, now ranked #20. Penn State’s last outing was a struggle to beat USC, a team with three Big Ten losses including its latest abomination, last week’s 29-28 loss to lowly Maryland. At mid-season, the Nittany Lions do not look like the third best program in the country. I seriously doubt that they could prevail against #4 Ohio State, #5 Texas, #7 Tennessee, or #8 LSU. (I didn’t mention overrated #6 Miami, who have ridden Cam Ward’s Heismanesque shoulders to where they are).
Test or Trap
More cliches. Is this a “test” game or a “trap” game? Let me dismiss the first hack sportswriter characterization–a “test”–by saying that everything is a “test” when you haven’t played anybody! So, let’s look at the “trap” aspects. All I need to say is that next week, Penn State will face #4 tOSU in Beaver Stadium. To use another hack sports commentator convention, November 2 is a “circle this date on your calendar” date, a distracting focus ever since the schedule was decided. If Penn State holds serve against Bucky and tOSU handles Nebraska at home, then the matchup with Brutus will be #3 vs. #4, another overhyped “Game of the Century” (about the twelfth this year). With all that looming distraction, dispatching the unranked Badgers is a foregone conclusion, right? WRONG!
Football Transitivity
Much like the Nittany Lions, the Badgers have beaten no one decent, and in fact, lost to USC back when they were ranked #13. They also lost to Alabama, for which I gave them credit not scheduling all non-conference pussies. We know that football transitivity doesn’t hold, so Penn State’s marginal win over USC does not mean that they’ll prevail over Wisconsin, who lost to the Prophylactics. Lots more factors come into play, not the least of which is the tOSU distraction. To use James Franklin’s tired old cliche, we need to go 1-0 this week and not worry about next week or last week, or Christmas or whatever.
Last Outings
After destroying mighty Rutgers the preceding week, the Badgers took on perennial Big Ten powerhouse Northwestern (3-4, 1-3) in Evanston, winning 23-3. It was a run dominant game, in which Wisconsin ran 43 times for 199 yards, sloppily committing two turnovers to the Wildcats’ one. In the Rutgers game, which they won 42-7, they ran 47 times for 309 yards and committed two turnovers. However, against Purdue’s crappy defense, a 52-6 victory, passing was dominant, as sophomore quarterback Braedyn Locke was 20-31 for 359 yards, with three TDs and two INTs (of course). Locke replaced starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who is out for the season with a torn ACL.
What It Is?
Wisconsin ranks #14 in the FBS in total defense, and #7 in passing yards allowed. It follows that in rushing defense, they are putrid, ranked #61 and allowing an average of 139.9 yards per game. Penn State’s offense showed signs of life against USC, but overall, they are ranked #10 in total offense. Wisconsin’s run defense is a vulnerable spot if the Lions can get the rushing game in gear.
Turnovers have been a problem for the Badgers this year, with a -3 margin. Locke has had five interceptions, while Bucky has lost seven fumbles.
I believe that Penn State is the slightly superior team, and the game may well come down to who coughs it up more.
What to Watch
Ordinarily, a PSU-Wisconsin game would be a boring, grind-it-out affair. Yet, the big difference this year are an improved Drew Allar, the innovative Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, and the performance of the versatile and talented Tyler Warren. So, regardless of the outcome, this year’s offense has emerged as one of the more entertaining products Penn State has put on the field in recent memory. They offer their share of frustration, but the high points are very high. I would rather have big ups and big downs than a flat-line, boring, bland, robotic offense. It makes me yell loudly during games while Jenny and Mike are talking about boring shit like food.
Da Wedda
The forecast for Saturday at Camp Randall is mostly sunny and pleasant, with a high of 66 and a low of 48. Should be in the high 50s for the 7:30 kickoff, and thus, weather will be no factor.
Da Bottom Line
We have arrived at the meaningless game forecast, which I call the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication, that awful offal that comes straight from the cloaca of this foul fowl. Homonyms aside, I would not suggest betting on my from-the-hip analyses and projections.
Penn State is favored by 6.5, with an over/under of 47.5, suggesting a 27-20 win. ESPN’s match-up predictor gives Wisconsin a 30% chance of winning. With two halfway decent defenses on Wisconsin’s home field, I believe it will be closer than the spread, another failure to cover the spread by King James. And thus, I choose over-ranked Penn State to win it by the skin of their teeth. PSU 24, Wisconsin 23. Take the under.
See you after the game, which should deliver some decent prime-time entertainment. I hope my prediction is wrong and the Nittany Lions blow out Bucky in his home burrow. One way or the other, I’ll be back with a heavy dose of opinion and a modicum of fact.
