From Bucky to Brutus

#4 Ohio State vs. #3 Penn State for All the Football Marbles

The #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) travel to the unfriendly confines of Beaver Stadium on Saturday to square off with the #3 Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0, 4-0). Kickoff, much to the chagrin of grumbling fans who think these teams deserve prime time, is 12:00 Noon. Crews from both ESPN College Gameday and Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff will broadcast live from University Park to hype the showdown.

It won’t be a “White Out”. Instead, it will be an overhyped circus. James Franklin is once again calling for fans to bring “white out energy”. I’ll be watching at home, where white out energy is only possible if I stick my finger in a light socket.

The Ohio State game is always a big deal. In a 2015 post on this blog, I recount one game in the series from sixty years ago, a game I will never forget. Those of you who were not around back then will appreciate the connection with the past.

Circle Jerks

Yes, indeed, sports fans. We have reached the point in the Penn State season where there is a big red circle on the mythical calendar, because hack sportswriters have long told us to draw it there. From season’s outset, even the most sanguine of what we here at The Turkey call The Sanguinarians^TM were begrudgingly counting the circled date as a loss. “Well,” they sighed, “we can still make the playoffs at 11-1.”

Why the premature concession speech when the campaign had not yet even begun? You all know the answer to that. Ohio State pwns Penn State in the Franklin Era. Since 2014, the Buckeyes have dominated the series, winning nine games out of ten. The Lions have not won in seven years. Can the supposedly #3 Nittany Lions get that monkey off their backs this year?

Another Cliche: The Injury Bug

Before the both teams suffered some crucial injuries, the answer to that question was a resounding “no”. Now, the picture is now clouded by injury related uncertainty. Penn State has key injuries at quarterback and defensive line, while Ohio State’s offensive line is questionable, damn near enabling a win for Nebraska last week. The Bucks came from behind to pull that one out, 21-17.

Does either team have a legitimate claim to a Top Five ranking? Both had a weak non-conference schedule. Ohio State waltzed through theirs, while Penn State struggled with the likes of Bowling Green. In conference games, Brutus lost to #1 Oregon by a single point, and scored more points on Iowa than anyone else this year. I suppose the Nittany Lions’ best conference win was over USC, a 33-30 overtime win on the road. But USC is 2-4 in the Big Ten, even losing to 1-4 Maryland. Last week, they came from behind to beat Wisconsin, who earlier lost to Alabama and USC. The win at Camp Randall did not prove anything, and was costly due to the injuries sustained there.

Slow, Shitty Starts

An annoying habit that has plagued PSU all year, and thinking back, for many years, is the slow start. Although this contest will be staged before a raucous, friendly, home crowd at Beaver Stadium, kickoff time is at noon. Hell, they just showed that even a prime-time kickoff time does not prevent a slow start. Only thing is, Wisconsin is one thing and Ohio State is another. A slow start against the Schmuckeyes will be the kiss of death. Why dig a hole like that hoping to come back in the third quarter?

The difference for Penn State this year has been the innovative offense designed by first-year OC Andy Kotelnicki, especially his use of talented tight end Tyler Warren. On the other hand, Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is no fool. He will try to neutralize Warren as well as the Penn State running game, leaving whoever plays quarterback for Penn State to throw to a collection of average receivers. And who, pray tell, will be the PSU quarterback?

Who’s on First?

Beau Pribula took over in the third quarter last week to secure the win over Wisconsin. Starter Drew Allar’s status is uncertain. Due to the Incident at Wounded Knee, Allar’s mobility and throwing accuracy will be compromised if he starts. Pribula is less of a threat to throw the deep pass, but he can run like a gazelle. Due to James Franklin’s penchant for keeping injury information close to the vest, Knowles will need to prepare for either or both of the Penn State quarterbacks.

Our Opponents Exposed, Indecently

As usual, Ohio State has some decent receivers, and senior quarterback Will Howard is serviceable at the position, although not up to the same par as several recent tOSU signal callers. Thus far, his completion percentage is 74% for 1,795 yards, with seventeen touchdowns and four interceptions. His primary target is a freshman, already, but a damn good one. Jeremiah Smith averages 17.8 yards per receptions and has eight touchdowns. Next in the rotation is senior Emeka Egbuka, who averages 12.7 yards per reception.

The Buckeyes’ running game is solid, although the offensive line will have much to say about that this week. Quinshon Judkins averages 6.4 yards per carry with six touchdowns; coming out of the backfield as a receiver he averages 9.5 yards and scored one touchdown thus far.

I am thinking that although the Bucks have reasonably good talent and depth this year, overall, they are inferior to teams Ryan Day has put together in recent years. They rank #22 in passing offense and #35 in rushing offense. Defensively, in passing yards allowed, they rank 8th, and in rushing yards allowed, they rank 6th.

If I Were Ryan Day…

If I were Ryan Day… Hell, if I were Ryan Day, I wouldn’t be sitting here writing this sophomoric drivel. I’d be coaching football. The same applies to other hack sportswriters who feel that they can second-guess guys who earn the big bucks to take on the heavy responsibility of coaching a big money college football program. So, I won’t be telling you what Ryan Day is going to do. All I am going to say is that I think we are in for an entertaining early afternoon, matching two teams that do not deserve to be ranked where they are, but will have what the bullshitters call “playoff implications” as well as giving the winner an inside track to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis, for what that is worth. Far too much emphasis is put on both, but to me, either means more games to watch. How about Penn State vs. Indiana for the B10 championship? Huh? Huh? Say what?

And so, the 90th “game of the year” (toned down from “game of the century”) is upon us. Before 4:00 pm on Saturday, we will know for whom the bell tolls. Will the Nittany Lions start slow and blow it once again before a high-energy, not a real white-out, but with white-out energy crowd? (That’s another damn cliche that has gone way too far). Will Ohio State’s talent advantage prove too much for the Penn State? Will James Franklin break his long drought and prevail? In the words of a non-commital parent, “We’ll see.”

Da Wedda

State College based AccuWeather has forecast mostly sunny and a great afternoon for football, with a high of 57 and a low of 35. No rain and negligible wind. Advantage, no one. Advantage, everyone.

Da Bottom Line.

Questions abound as I try to sort out a reasonable position in this edition of the Official Turkey Poop Prediction, the awful offal issued straight from the cloaca of this foul old fowl. I hate to hedge by considering every conceivable contingency, so I will just cut to the chase, making the assumption that Beau Pribula will start at quarterback and Ohio State will find a solution to its offensive line problems.

The rampant uncertainty has narrowed the spread to tOSU — 3.5, with an over/under of 45.5. This works out to a 25-21 win by tOSU. Try as they will, coming from behind in the second half, a nasty habit of Penn State’s, will not work against the Schmuckeyes. I would love to be wrong here and see a decent effort for sixty minutes, but I can not negate history saying otherwise. Still, I wish Beau and Company a great game. Ohio State 27, Penn State 17. I’m taking the under.

I’ll be back after the game. I’ll tap out my recap while watching Georgia annihilate the Gators.