Pur-doodoo and the CFP

#4 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) at Purdue (1-8, 0-6)

Mismatch games like this shouldn’t be allowed. We are in the home stretch of one of the softest schedules I have witnessed in my sixty years of Penn State fanhood. This week’s game with “the other” Big Ten team in Indiana is the nadir of the conference schedule. That the spread is only 28.5 points as I write this tells you that the punters don’t have much confidence in Penn State scoring a lot of points against the worst team in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions should prevail in a walkover, which will impress no one. Last week, the Schmuckeyes blew out the Boilermakers 45-0 in the Horseshoe. Two weeks prior to that, the Ducks shut them out 35-0 back home in Indiana. And a couple of games before that, Wisconsin clobbered their asses 52-6 at Camp Randall.

Purdue started out the season looking like they might have something, beating non-conference, in-state opponent Indiana State 49-0. The euphoria over the big win over an inferior, Missouri Valley Football Conference opponent best known for producing basketball Hall of Famer Larry Bird, quickly faded when yet another home state opponent came to West Lafayette the following week. The Fighting Irish blew up the Boilers, 66-7.

Purdue’s only narrow escape was at Illinois, where they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a 50-49 overtime loss. The Illiniweks scored a touchdown and an extra point in overtime. The Boilermakers returned the favor with a touchdown, then got cute and failed on the two-point try, muffing their best chance for a conference win for the whole damn season. The game displayed an amazing of lack of defense, with Illinois narrowly edging out Purdue 556-536 in total yards.

So, the spread being only 28.5 is disturbing. Is the supposedly #4 team in the country only that much better than the worst squad in its league? Purdue ranks 128 out of 133 FBS teams in scoring defense, right between Temple and Tulsa. They’re 118th in rushing defense and 108th in passing yards allowed. Offensively, the rankings are about the same, 117th in passing and 88th in rushing. The big question is whether Penn State will take this game seriously and show up. The secondary question is whether Purdue has conceded this season and will show up. Overall this portends a meaningless game, but one replete with perils if the teams sleep through it. Could the overlay spread reflect general apathy?

OK, enough of that. I will not even try to analyze Purdue’s strengths and weaknesses. Why bother? I want to move to the CFP craziness.

How Will the CFP Shake Out?

Of the CFP top twelve right now, four represent the Big Ten and five represent the SEC. The top two teams are Big Ten. SEC has positions 3, 7, 10, 11, and 12. Just out of my ass, I would bet that any one of those SEC teams could prevail over either of the top two Big Ten teams. The back door path for a Big Ten team to win the Still Somewhat Mythical National Championship (SSMNC) requires that SEC schools keep on doing what they have been doing all year long — beating the shit out of each other.

Looking at the four Big Ten teams, Oregon has two significant wins, an early season 37-34 victory over Boise State, and the 32-31 win over tOSU. Ohio State’s only significant win was beating our Nittany Lions 20-13. Penn State’s big win was arguably at USC, who have a 4-5 record at the moment. Similarly, #5 Indiana has played no one. Its big win was last week, beating 5-5 Michigan, struggling in the wake of its SSMNC season.

The SEC is a mess. As I noted, when it seems that someone will emerge, they get beaten back. Texas, #3 in the CFP standings, lost to #12 Georgia, who lost to #11 Ole Miss and #10 Alabama. Ole Miss had off-weeks against Kentucky and LSU. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and #7 Tennessee, who lost to unranked Arkansas.

I do not see Indiana beating Ohio State on November 23, so they’ll have one loss when all is said and done. That will make the Big Ten a holy mess, too. Oregon has two games left, at Wisconsin and the Border War with Washington back home at Autzen Stadium. They will win both. So who the hell will win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis? Who the hell will even play in it? The new conference mish-mash pits the No. 1 and No. 2 teams against each other in that match. We assume that the Ducks will remain No. 1. With all the one-loss teams, how is No. 2 determined?

The new tie-breaking rules are ridiculously complicated. Head-to-head competition comes first. So, of the three potential one-loss teams, namely Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State, Ohio State would emerge, having beaten Indiana (predicted) and Penn State. This, of course ass-umes that Ohio State will not lose any of its remaining games, including Indiana and the rivalry game with Michigan. So, a rematch of the Oregon vs. Ohio State game looks likely for Indy.

The conference championship is important, because it enables a first-round bye in the playoffs. We concluded that Penn State is unlikely to play in Indianapolis, let alone win it, so assuming they make the playoffs, which seems likely, they will probably play an SEC opponent like Ole Miss in the first round, last year’s Peach Bowl opponent in PSU’s 38-25 losing effort. We’ll see.

Of course, you knew all that already. I just had to work through it in my mind, and I needed to fill some space because I have nothing to say this week.

Da Wedda

While Florida keeps a wary watch on the Caribbean, where another damn hurricane, this one named Sara, will form this weekend, the weather in Indiana for Saturday’s 3:30 game looks pretty. A forecast high of 60 and low of 45 with no precipitation and little wind makes for a fine, fall football day. Not that anything resembling football will be played, or anything, but the weather provides no advantage to either team. And Purdue needs all the advantages it can get.

Da Bottom Line

Let’s cut to the chase. The Official Turkey Poop Prognostication will be brief and to the point. Spread of PSU – 28.5 and over/under 50.5. Penn State 41, Purdue 3. We’re taking the under.

See you after the game. #7 Tennessee at #12 Georgia is the game to watch this weekend, so my recap will be late.