#4 Penn State (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) at Minnesota (6-4, 4-3)
This game is for all the marbles. That is, if there are any marbles in the Governors’ Victory Bell Trophy, presently in the trophy case at the All-Sports Museum at Beaver Stadium. If the Nittany Lions play well, Minnesota will be rowing its P.J. Fleck rowboat, while Penn State roars past with trophy in hand in its twin-diesel yacht. But this is a crazy dangerous game for PSU, especially if they slack off. The Gophers are deceptive, with a decent quarterback and one more serviceable wide receiver than what Penn State has, which is zero.
The Golden Rodents are coming off a tragic loss to Rutgers (5-4, 2-4), 26-19, in Piscataway. Before that, they handled Illinois, Maryland, UCLA, and USC, but lost to Michigan and Iowa. Rutgers held Minnesota to 35 yards rushing. Although the Scarlet Knights allowed 262 yards passing, they concentrated on covering senior wide receiver Daniel Jackson, one of the best out there (he ranks 6th in the conference).
The historical (and sometimes hysterical) record between the two combatants is tilted in Penn State’s favor 10-6. On Gopher turf, which is torn up with perilous holes and burrows, the teams have split 4-4. Minnesota has won some memorable games in the series, including the 2000 upset that heralded the onset of The Dark Years [cue minor-key cello].
What Dem Gophers Got
Senior Quarterback Max Brosmer is among the better quarterbacks Penn State has faced this year, ranked 8th best passer in the conference, a notch below Drew Allar. Although Jackson is his best receiver, he spreads the ball around to his secondary targets, who rate “not too bad”.
The Gopher ground game? Well, it sucks. You would think that ground-dwelling rodents would know how to handle stuff on the turf, but nooooooooooo. Minnesota is next-to-last in the Big Ten, averaging only 104.7 yards per game. They rely on two running backs, sophomore Darius Taylor and senior Marcus Major, who average 74.7 and 27.2 yards per game, respectively. Rutgers held Taylor to 28 and Major to 9.
How about the Boat-Rowers’ offensive line, you ask? Not so good, I say. We already covered their run support, but their pass protection is putrid, having given up 23 sacks this year. Brosmer’s ass must be pretty sore by this time.
Defensively, Minnesota shines brighter than many Nittany Lions opponents thus far, ranking fifth in the conference after tOSU, Indiana, and Oregon. The Rodents are in company there, and overall in the FBS, Gopher total defense ranks #11. They’re 34th in rushing defense and 17th in passing yards allowed, squarely between Penn State and Indiana. They also are tied for 7th in the FBS in turnover margin, averaging +1.2 per game (compared to Penn State’s +0.3).
In that connection there lies one great big caveat for the Penn State offense. Minnesota ranks 4th in the FBS and best in the Big Ten in passes intercepted. They have snagged 16 so far this year with 207 return yards. Their best secondary vacuum cleaner is freshman DB Koi Perich (named after two fishes), with five interceptions this year.
The kicking and punting situation is about the same for both teams. The Gophers use a familiar (albeit fishy) name, Koi Perich, for punt returns, and his numbers are as good as Nick Singleton’s in that role.
The Nittany Turkey’s Lame Keys to the Game for PSU
- Start strong and lead the race wire-to-wire
- Pressure Brosmer continually. He should be seeing #11 and #33 in his nightmares.
- Nullify Jackson either through double coverage or by cheating.
- Hear this, Drew Allar: No picks!
- Don’t look past this game thinking you’re already in the playoffs.
Da Wedda
Looks like a warming trend is in store for Minneapolis with a forecast high of 37 and a low of 32. A shitty-looking fall day is in store, with 98% cloud cover. Winds will be from the northeast at 4 with gusts to 10. Only a 12% chance of precipitation, which at those temperatures would be white. Kickoff is at 3:30 PM EST/2:30 CST. Sunset in the Twin Cities is at 4:37 CST. Accordingly, some of the second half will be played under the lights. The moon will be a waning crescent. Thus, there is no danger of a super-moon mooning the Gophers, as it did with Purdue. Both teams know how to play in cold weather — advantage no one.
Da Bottomus Linus
I thought I would sound smart if I wrote that heading in made-up Latin. Most of us clowns who write about football try to sound smart by endlessly reciting second-hand statistics, but I already did that above. I’m stalling, I know.
As I write this, the spread is Penn State – 12.5, with an over/under of 45.5, which suggests a final score of 29-17, PSU on top. The Nittany Lions do not need to play a perfect game, just a competent one, avoiding risky passes against the boat-rowing interceptors. Minnesota is capable of scoring points, too, so a good start is essential to avert one of those too close for comfort heart attack specials. I’m picking Penn State to go 1-0 this week but I also think they will make one stupid mistake that will cause it to be closer than it should have been. Penn State 31, Minnesota 24. They’re not covering the spread, and I’ll take the over.
I’m thinking that I covered it all, so don’t sue me if I left something out. It’s my birthday and I can do whatever I want. I will be back with you to pay penance for my egregious errors and omissions after the game.
