#3 Penn State (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) vs. #1 Oregon (12-0, 9-0)
This unlikely pairing of a newbie duck and a dark horse will compete for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night in Indianapolis. The Oregon Ducks, which were called the Pintail Ducks when I attended Penn State, have led the conference wire-to-wire, and have been ranked #1 in the polls since October. Meanwhile, Penn State backed into the title match when rampant alpha particles disturbed the kineomatic harmony of the universe, permitting Michigan to beat formerly mighty Ohio State for the fourth year in a row.
Sparse History
The Nittany Lions, which were called the Nittany Lions when I attended Penn State, last encountered those quackers at the 1995 Rose Bowl, where Ki-Jana Carter was unstoppable on the way to a 38-20 Penn State victory. I was lucky enough to have attended that game. Furthermore, I attended the previous encounter with the Ducks thirty years earlier in 1964, when this naïve sophomore witnessed Rip Engle’s boys fumbling away a 22-14 loss in early October at Beaver Stadium. Fortunately, I brought a camera.
I wrote a retrospective about that game here in The Nittany Turkey back in 2009. My nostalgic photos show the old scoreboard and the open south end of the stadium, which held about 45,000 back then and had been moved piece-by-piece from its original location by West Halls and the Water Tower only four years earlier. But I wistfully digress.
Penn State is coming off a 44-7 drubbing of Maryland, which included a controversial late touchdown in garbage time. Unkind words were spoken between James Franklin and Mike Locksley at mid-field after the game. Meanwhile, Oregon was taking care of border issues, beating Washington 49-21. Penn State is fortunate to have enjoyed one of its softer schedules, but Oregon’s wasn’t much better. The Ducks beat Boise State early in the season 37-34, and of course, there’s that 32-31 squeaker over tOSU. So, I suppose you can say that Oregon backed into the #1 ranking, outlasting everyone else and winding up undefeated by beating mostly pussies while SEC contenders were kicking the shit out of each other. The same concept applies to Penn State and its #3 ranking. Let’s face it: The Big Ten ain’t all that this year.
Still a Game Worth Watching
Lest I diss these combatants too much, they are likely to put on a good show at Lucas Oil Stadium, but it won’t be another “Game of the Century” between a #1 and a #3.
Oregon possesses a premier passing quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. The sixth-year senior transfer from Oklahoma (and formerly, UCF) set the NCAA record for career touchdowns last month. His completion percentage of .736 stands atop the FBS. Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen had better have a plan to disrupt this passing machine who is known to release the ball in 2.5 seconds. Overall, Oregon’s passing offense ranks 14th in the FBS, against Penn State’s 7th ranking in passing yards allowed. In rushing, Oregon ranks only 56th, relying on junior running back Jordan James for the bulk of its carries. He averages 5.7 yards per carry. James is also a capable receiver coming out of the backfield. “We’ll see” how he stacks up against the 7th-ranked rushing defense of the Nittany Lions.
Looking at the other stat categories finds the two teams positioned similarly. Penn State’s rushing game could be an advantage if it were to get going, which is less likely now due to key injuries on the offensive line. Drew Allar is a competent quarterback who, as the idiots say, can beat you with his arm and beat you with his legs. He has excellent pocket instincts, prompting comparisons with retired Steeler star Ben Roethlisberger. What he lacks is one or more viable downfield receiving threats who can break loose from man coverage and stretch the field. Allar relies more on zone-busting short to medium shots, which he typically handles very well.
Playoff Implications
Win or lose, both teams are in the playoffs unless Oregon scores a ridiculously lopsided win. What is at stake here is a first-round bye, which is accorded to the top four conference champions. Some Penn State fans might feel ambivalent about missing a first round home game in Beaver Stadium because the next round will be in the neutral bowl venues. But if PSU loses, the home game could be out the proverbial window if they take a deep dive in playoff seeding. Ohio State might just wind up being their first-round opponent in that case, and five’ll get you ten the Buckeyes would be seeded higher, so the game would be at the Horseshoe. All bullshit aside, the Nittany Lions need to win this game! Just sayin’…
Da Wedda
Does outside weather matter if they play the game indoors? Unless they’re stupid enough to open the roof at Lucas Oil Stadium, the weather is at the mercy of the climate control systems. However, for the record, outside the stadium the temperature is expected to be 34. Advantage no one.
Da Bottom Line
Your Turkey is straining his brain with the Official Turkey Poop Prognostication this week. Looking at Oregon, I see one signature win over tOSU by a single point, and the early victory over Boise State was a three-point squeaker. Similarities to Penn State’s record abound, with only the Ohio State game differentiating the two. So, why do all the pundits think the Ducks are so elite? I’m not buying it.
The betting line opened at Oregon minus three. It has not moved much since then, now at 3.5. The over/under is 50.5, yielding an expected break-even 27-24 Oregon win. However, the unknown algorithm behind ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor gives Penn State a 53.8% chance of winning. No doubt, such calculations are based on tangible stats, not emotions.
Lucas Oil Stadium is neutral turf. However, I would expect the attendees to be strongly weighted in favor of Penn State. Nittany Lion fans notably “travel well”. Oregon, not so much — plus it is a long trip for them but just a hop, skip, and a jump for the Lion faithful. So, Penn State has that intangible going its way, but its injury situation on both sides of the ball is a negative that skews the game toward the Duck pond. So, I’m going with my avian cousins here. Let’s say Oregon 30, Penn State 23. I’m taking the over, but I don’t know why.
I’ll be back after the big showdown in Indy. Shake hands and come out fighting.
