The Nittany Turkey

Primarily about Penn State football, this is a tale told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

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PSU vs. Indiana at FedEx Field

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Our Nittany Lions of Penn State (6-4, 3-3 Big Ten) will perform for a friendly home crowd in our nation’s capital where they will face their penultimate Big Ten opponent, Indiana (4-6, 0-6). This was originally scheduled as a road game, but the Hoosiers succumbed to the allure of megabucks, which they were offered to move the game to Landover, Maryland, Penn State’s backyard. Thus, the stands of gigantic (largest in the NFL) FedEx field will be largely blue and white — essentially a home way from home game.

It is no wonder that the perennial Big Ten cellar dwelling Hoosiers heeded the pecuniary call despite the venue’s propinquity to Penn State. As far back as this old Turkey can remember, Indiana has been regarded as a “basketball school”, not a “football school. bet365 arabic ” Their last Rose Bowl appearance was in 1968 — they lost 14-7 to the USC Trojans led by a 128 yard performance by O. J. Simpson. It has been over 20 years since an Indiana football player has won a major award. Memorial Stadium is small by Big Ten standards, holding just under 53,000 hapless but loyal Hoosier fans. Typically, they fall short of a sellout by 10,000 seats, but the house was full for this year’s 42-35 loss to Michigan, attended no doubt by a plethora of Michigan fans who can’t get enough of Denard Robinson. The bottom line is that the two mil is a lot more than the Hoosiers would be getting by playing this game at home and the Redskins organization knows that Penn State fans will suck up lots and lots of tickets and potentially fill 91,704 seat FedEx Field. Besides, Indiana University no doubt figured on losing this one — in 13 encounters, they’ve never beaten Penn State.

Indiana, as I’ve mentioned is winless in the Big Ten this season. They’ve played some interesting games, though, and they might not be as bad as their record makes them seem, in spite of last week’s 83-20 laugher loss to Wisconsin. The previous week, the Hoosiers had Iowa on the ropes and had unleashed a sure knockout punch which did not connect, as time ran out. The touchdown pass was in the hands of its receiver, who was all alone in the end zone, and he just plain flat out dropped the damn thing, letting Iowa squeak by with an 18-13 win. All year long, they’ve figured out how to lose the close ones.

The Hoosiers rely heavily on the passing attack, throwing an average of over 40 times per game. Thus, they rank 16th in passing yards versus 108th in rushing. The passing chores are adeptly handled by senior quarterback Ben Chappell, a 6-3, 239 lb behemoth. ????? ???? ?????? Last week he completed eight of fourteen passes for 62 yards and a touchdown against Wisconsin before leaving with a hip injury. At this time, he is probable for the Penn State game. (I would have preferred to sit out that 83-20 drubbing if I were he, too, if only to avoid the embarrassment of being associated with that game in any way.) Alas, Chappell has thrown 19 interceptions in 10 games this year. His two favorite targets are 6-5, 215 lb junior Demario Belcher and 6-3, 205 lb junior Tandon Doss. Their size could be an issue for Penn State’s 81st ranked pass efficiency defense. 888

Indiana’s running game is almost nonexistent, producing an average of 104 yards per game. However, if I were Indiana head coach Bill Lynch, I would try the run against Penn State’s 83rd ranked rushing defense, which is yielding over 172 yards per game. The PSU front seven just don’t have what it takes this year, and the loss of Mike Mauti in last week’s debacle with Ohio State makes it even worse. I would hope to see Khari Fortt this week, either at linebacker or defensive end.

For Penn State, red-shirt sophomore Matt McGloin will once again start at quarterback and he will have his usual full complement of talented receivers. Indiana’s pass efficiency defense is ranked 114th, which should be an incentive for the coaching staff to let McGloin air it out early in the game to establish a lead. (Then, they’ll screw it up by going all conservative, letting Indiana hang around for the rest of the game because Joe Paterno wouldn’t even think of running up 83 points on a weak opponent as his Badger counterpart Brett Bielema did, but I digress.) The terrestrial corps of Royster, Redd, and Green (just in time for Christmas) should be able to wage a successful campaign, especially when the aforementioned conservative clamp-down occurs. Royster probably won’t see much action, as he suffered a minor knee injury against Ohio State. Stephfon Green got his bell rung in that game, too. Look for freshman suPerstar (with a capital “P”) Redd to get most of the carries.

As for special teams, I don’t want to bore you with a lot of mumbo jumbo and statistical pontification. Penn State punter Anthony Fera will miss this game and probably the next due to an emergency appendectomy. His backup, Alex Butterworth, has no actual game time punting the football, so you might want to watch the game just to see if something funny happens when the Lions show up in punt formation — if they even have to punt in this game. I would expect old Joe to be going for it on a lot of fourth downs instead of punting. Against Indiana’s defense, why the hell not?

As Joe so frequently tells his guys, “Just go out there and have some fun!” I think that’s what this game is all about. Well, for Penn State, anyway. Coming off a second half beat-down in which they squandered a 14-3 halftime lead by allowing 35 unanswered points by Ohio State, they better be hopping mad. It would be cruel fun to turn the tables and do that to someone else, for a change. And it is time for the Hoosiers to have some fun after having been slaughtered by Wisconsin 83-20? They don’t have much to lose here, although they could become bowl eligible by beating both Penn State and Purdue. Fat chance of that happening — they’ve gone to one bowl game in the past 17 years. If they can overcome the self-esteem issues associated with being taken apart by the Badgers, they might just make this one interesting, especially when the Penn State coaching brain trust switches into Sphincter Mode. So, everybody just go out there and have some fun. Yeah.

It’s a 12:00 noon start and it’s a semi-road game. By this I mean that the Nittany Lions have to travel to get to Landover. You would think that they’d take some buses down there due to the close proximity, but they’re flying. Paterno’s reasoning is that it’s a noon start, so there just isn’t time for buses. The issues with noon starts have been beaten to death but, hey, you make your bed and you must sleep in it. If the Lions had put a few more wins on the scoreboard, they would be playing at 3:30, but noooooooooo. Anyway, the early start might mean that our guys are still half asleep in the first quarter, which would allow Indiana to have a head start like last year, when they went up 10-0 early in the game.

Therefore, my keys to the game for our Nittany Lions are: play a complete game, have fun, and kick ass. Any questions?

Although the field might still be a bit soft from the recent rain storms, the weather looks good for this contest. The forecast for Saturday is breezy with plenty of sunshine and a global warming related high of 60.

And now. that moment you’ve all been waiting for with bated anticipation, the frequently fallible, caustically clairvoyant, perniciously penurious Official Turkey Poop Prediction! But first, let me say that just because the season didn’t go the way we all wanted to, it’s no time to just say “piss on it!” Especially for players. Specifically for Sean Stanley and Silas Redd, who were both arrested for disorderly conduct relating to public urination this week. There are still two games to play, so dump your damn bladders in appropriate receptacles and play some damn football! (We’re not sure whether either will play on Saturday, as Joe was coy about Redd during his press conference and only said that Stanley had been a disappointment on the field, but I digress.) I think the gamblers have this thing all wrong, but nobody’s putting much money on either of these two fickle, mediocre teams. (And calling them “mediocre” is giving Indiana a helluva lot of credit. I’m in a generous mood.) The books opened this one with a 10.5 point spread favoring PSU and an over/under of 57, suggesting a final score of 34-23. My generous mood continues when I tell you to take Penn State and the over. The Nittany Lions should win this one going away. Get mad, Lions! Penn State 42, Indiana 27.

Maintain the Mo

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Indiana HoosiersThe mood among the Penn State fan base is optimistic following the Nittany Lions’ dismantling of Wisconsin, and for good reason. The offensive game seems to be coming together; Anthony Morelli appears confident; our offensive line is jelling, to use a trite, oft-abused sportswriter word (jell this!); our offensive brain trust has shown (or perhaps they have been shown) that an aggressive offensive plan actually works to their advantage; and, finally, the offensive squad made no major mistakes. This all equates to a good, warm, fuzzy feeling.

That feeling is fragile. Everybody I’ve talked to, every blogster I’ve read, and every legitimate sports pundit I’ve encountered tells me that Penn State will beat Indiana. The bookies are reflecting that the betting public thinks that the Nittany Lions are better than the Hoosiers by 7.5 points as I write this. I’m hearing canaries sing and a basket with a cute little fuzzy kitten was just delivered to my door. Life is wonnnnnnnnderful!

But just as surely as that cute little fuzzy kitten will grow into a single-mindedly bloodthirsty, sharp clawed killer cat that will surely eat the damn canary if given half a chance, our sweet sunshine dreams can rapidly turn into ugly, troubling nightmares if the offense fails to live up to the promise provided by the wonderful Wisconsin win come high noon on Saturday. Our euphoria is fragile indeed, as it has been throughout the past decade. We’ve seen too much go wrong not to harbor nagging doubts, which never manage to stay buried under unbridled optimism for very long after a win. We subconsciously wait for the inevitable screw-up. When will the bubble burst?

Much as even the most unbridled optimists among us unwittingly have been trained to expect the worst, having been subjected to the preponderance of underachieving performances of the past decade, it will take several repetitions of the Wisconsin experience to train us to expect the best. We are riding an emotional yo-yo. Consistency has not been a great quality of the 2007 Nittany Lions, except that for the first six games the offense got off to a consistently slow start. Negative consistency ain’t what we need. Given our current fan psyche, if we lose a game, no matter how hard we fight and no matter how wonderfully our opponent performs, we’ll quickly label the Wisconsin win a fluke and declare that we have sucked all along. We’ll say that this loss was merely regression to the mean and it will be that much harder to climb out of the hole we dig for ourselves.

I’m not saying we’re kidding ourselves thinking that with the Wisconsin win the storm has passed and the skies ahead are blue. I’m merely saying that many of us would like to see proof in the form of a repeat performance against a team with a winning record in a game played somewhere other than Beaver Stadium. Otherwise, the warm fuzzies will be evanescent once again and we’ll repeat the cycle ad nauseam. If the Nittany Lions either lose to the Hoosiers or win ugly, not only will the fans’ confidence be shattered, but also the team’s confidence in itself will evaporate—just in time for the slug-fest with #1 Ohio State a week from Saturday.

So, yes, it’s one week at a time, and to look past this important game to Ohio State would be to court disaster. On to this week’s game.

About the Hoosiers

The Indiana Hoosiers (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) have a record identical to ours at this point. Thus, they are one win away from bowl eligibility, which is quite a happy thing for the folks in Bloomington, who are quite used to biding their time by watching losing efforts—or not watching them—on the football field while they wait for basketball season to begin. However, this year is a special year for the football Hoosiers. Their coach through last season, Terry Hoeppner, died of complications due to a brain tumor, so it is an emotional time for the team. The new coach, Bill Lynch, has done a surprisingly good job to date continuing the team-building effort started by Hoeppner in his two years at IU.

This will not be a walkover—no “bye week”—as we used to consider Indiana.

Let’s look at the Indiana offense. In sophomore Kellen Lewis, the Hoosiers have an option quarterback who is bound to give us fits, as did Illinois’ Juice Williams. However, unlike Illinois, Lewis doesn’t have an established stud running back to pitch to. Lewis is averaging 67 yards per game rushing, while junior running back Marcus Thigpen is averaging only 38 yards per game on the ground. Look for our front seven to shut down the Hoosier running game, which is ranked 42nd in the Division Formerly Known as I-A. Indiana’s offense is balanced but Lewis’ receivers are relatively inexperienced: a junior and two sophomores. They rank #53 nationally in passing offense. As the Penn State defense won’t allow the run and will dare Lewis to throw, our secondary had better be on its game, but this Turkey believes that they will keep the Hoosier wide receivers under control.

Defensively, the Hoosiers had been surprisingly good until last weekend’s defensive melt-down in East Lansing, in which Michigan State scored 52 points, which dropped the total defense ranking down to #63 nationally. However, you might still be surprised to learn that the Indiana defense is leading the nation in quarterback sacks, averaging over 4.5 per game. (Penn State is tied for second with 4.14.) If our offensive brain-trust chews on some peyote, we might see a wide-open game with the potential to score prolifically. On the other hand, if they watch the Indiana vs. Michigan State tape, see that Moo U’s rushing yardage practically doubled their passing output, note that one IU safety had 22 tackles, and conclude that we have to run all day, we’re in the latrine again. It would be great to be wrong about that and to see the ball thrown down-field. Establish the pass to set up the run, guys! To fulfill our dreams, the newly respectable offensive line will have to provide enough protection for Morelli to get the ball away, and Morelli’s reactions will have to be sharp and his throws on the money. We now know that he can do it. We’re actually on the verge of expecting it. A lot depends on the game plan. We also know that Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster can do the job just in case the coaches choose the Woody Hayes Memorial Game Plan.

On special teams, Indiana is an interesting mesh for our Nittany Lions, who are ranked #3 in net punting. The Hoosiers rank #7 in punt returns. So, the return coverage better be there.

Looking through Indiana’s 5-2 start, we must note that the five wins have been over the likes of Indiana State, Western Michigan, Akron, Iowa, and Minnesota, while the losses were at home to Illinois and on the road at Michigan State. As Iowa and Minnesota are awful this year, both of the Hoosiers’ real Big Ten tests, the Illini and the Spartans, were abject failures, with 79 points scored against IU in those two games.

What happens now?

We’re all sitting on pins and needles waiting for the first Nittany Lion possession on Saturday, wanting to see if Morelli comes out throwing. Will our offensive geniuses tighten up and go into road mode, playing not to lose, as in the Michigan game? Or will they see some value in opening it up, as in the Wisconsin masterpiece? Will Morelli be loose as a goose or tight as a drum? Will the offensive line be effective against the sack-happy Hoosiers? Now that the demon represented by Austin Scott has been exorcised, will the whole team continue to act as if an onerous weight has been lifted off its collective shoulders? Will the banged-up defensive line be as effective as it was before the injuries to Hayes and Odrick? And will the Nittany Lions actually look like they want to play to win? Will they display fire on the sidelines and in the game, especially while playing on the road with a noon start? They will have to do all those things to preserve the momentum established by the Wisconsin win. We now know that this team can perform well; we just need to see them do it a few more times before we completely believe in the beleaguered 2007 Nittany Lions.

So that brings us to the Nittany Turkey’s Official Turkey Poop Prediction. Before I put some numbers on this thing, I have to say that I’m tired of swaying in the breeze about this bunch of kids. I want to believe in them. I want the rest of the season to go by without another nefarious incident. I want the Nittany Lions to win the rest of their games. However, the Rolling Stones told me that I can’t always get what I want. So, the Turkey must throttle down his expectations to take this one game at a time. I’ve got a positive feeling about this game, folks, and I feel the groundswell of fan support champing at the bit to get loose. Another convincing win will put Big Mr. Mo right on track for the head-on collision with the pack-leading Buckeyes. I like that idea. Please Mista Jay and Mista Galen, let ’em play! On Homecoming Day for Indiana, I’m going for the peyote option: it will be Penn State 45, Indiana 17.